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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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Just now, mitchnick said:

Northern stream vort turned what could have been really impressive into a mediocre, climo event.

Yea this one was a mess.  Also not sure we even had a high in the right place.  That SE wind was a major clue that may have been overlooked a bit.

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Just came back in from a walk.  About 3 inches of a sleet/frozen rain mix on grassy areas.  Unsalted sidewalk areas at 1.5-2.0 inches.  It has switched over to hard sleet pellets (fully frozen) instead of the half sleet/half rain from earlier.  It's coming down at a decent rate, and I suspect the changeover to snow is not too far off.  Just need the 850s to retreat a bit more.

Edit: in hindsight, it's probably closer to 2 inches on grassy, 1.0-1.5 on sidewalks.  Haven't slept much, so my judgment is off some.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Se wind was in response to the northern stream vort to our nw.

Yea I saw the maps.  It never looked ideal.  Almost looked like a strung out frontal passage thru the Midwest.  We need a simpler setup here and obviously a stronger high to the north.

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Measured 3" last night, 3.5" this morning. I've been getting lots of sleet and freezing rain lately. All of the surfaces I measure on are scoured by the sleet/ZR. Still very frozen though, 30.5 degrees.

This is a good first storm for you because it illustrates how tough snow forecasts can be for the area.  We've been spoiled in recent years in that we've gotten more than the usual all snow events and today is a reminder of how most of our "snowstorms" work out.  You're generally in a pretty safe location for snow, but keep this storm in mind going forward because in most systems, you may be experiencing all snow, and a lot of our forum to your south and east are dealing with slop.

We can't take any snow for granted.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

This is a good first storm for you because it illustrates how tough snow forecasts can be for the area.  We've been spoiled in recent years in that we've gotten more than the usual all snow events and today is a reminder of how most of our "snowstorms" work out.  You're generally in a pretty safe location for snow, but keep this storm in mind going forward because in most systems, you may be experiencing all snow, and a lot of our forum to your south and east are dealing with slop.

We can't take any snow for granted.

Well, I'm not disappointed or anything. In a way this seems like a very unique event to me - 3" of straight sleet and accumulation of mixing precip, icycles, its all kind of pretty cool.

 

Way better than anything I've ever experienced.

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