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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Might be slightly east of guidance but it's drawing in above normal Atlantic temps, air from Caribbean, GOM. Pretty significant mid level warm layer. 

12z IAD sounding will be interesting.  Depending on the depth of the warm layer this advertised flip back to snow on the short term guidance may be in trouble.  Looks like the winds are shifting to more north over the past hour though so maybe we luck out.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I'm not expecting a quick flip back to snow, but I'm fascinated with the deepening process. Thoughts on surface temps? Think we'll be able to hold below freezing through mid morning?

Might be able too, but this stubborn warm layer aloft will take a while to erode.

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5 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

If its any consolation someone in York reported sleet and it seems around PHL is getting sleet too. East-Central PA appears to jackpot. 

Garret county to Wilkes Bare is getting rocked.  The NAM was the only model that had impressive totals there.

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Garret county to Wilkes Bare is getting rocked.  The NAM was the only model that had impressive totals there.

Im in north york at around 1000ft and its pouring snow! at about 7" already wouldnt be surprised to see 2 feet as long as we dont mix

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HRRR was really great this winter......until tonight. Massive failure. It's a shame. Radar is absolutely amazing. Maybe PSU ends up getting crushed.

Well, it gave us hope there for a second. For those of you that love sleet, enjoy your storm. I'm going to bed.

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

HRRR was really great this winter......until tonight. Massive failure. It's a shame. Radar is absolutely amazing. Maybe PSU ends up getting crushed.

Well, it gave us hope there for a second. For those of you that love sleet, enjoy your storm. I'm going to bed.

It might end up close with the QPF. I think a met said you cant trust the snow maps because it counts sleet and frzn as snow. 

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HRRR was great, we just didnt realize it was gonna go to straight rain, and that the rain would likely soak us for hours overnight lol

There's nothing worse than 28 degree rain, driven by a COLD, COLD northerly wind.

 

G#dd@mned warm nose! Someone ought to punch this son of a b!tch storm hard  right in the nose. Make it a knockout

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6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

HRRR was really great this winter......until tonight. Massive failure. It's a shame. Radar is absolutely amazing. Maybe PSU ends up getting crushed.

Well, it gave us hope there for a second. For those of you that love sleet, enjoy your storm. I'm going to bed.

It never looked good with the sleet line.  It accumulated snow with those QPF bombs.

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