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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. It felt like "there's a chance so..." lol. We almost always flip early to sleet when it's a guaranteed part of a storm. My yard will hold ZR longer than models show but rarely holds snow longer when there's sleet involved. I'm 100% sleet now. Hopefully it piles up when the bands rotate in. 

I am hoping when the heavy banding comes in it switches back to snow

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Don't get me wrong - this is a lot of fun (esp after the winter we have had) - but watching the stunning look of the radar is going to make me bitter about what this could have looked like if it was all snow.

I'm pretty convinced we could've made a solid run at Two Feet+.  

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7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I think many of us - myself included - got sucked in by the super short terms that showed a later flip.  to NAM's credit, they showed flip at 4-5z for me...

Maybe the NAM will be right about the band of snow tomorrow as well.  The 3k says I should get about 2" after the flip back.

5YOMjMd.gif

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. It felt like "there's a chance so..." lol. We almost always flip early to sleet when it's a guaranteed part of a storm. My yard will hold ZR longer than models show but rarely holds snow longer when there's sleet involved. I'm 100% sleet now. Hopefully it piles up when the bands rotate in. 

Latest RAP is showing 3" Liquid IMBY 

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13 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I'm really worried were going to flip or at least mix a good deal and lose a good 2-4 hours what would be 1-2 inch rates.

I'm a little worried about that too but we're on the edge and heavy rates should overcome a small warm layer. I almost can't believe we have major mixing problems out here given the track and intensity of the storm and where we were all week. Not a  single run had mixing anywhere near us until today really. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I'm a little worried about that too but we're on the edge and heavy rates should overcome a small warm layer. I almost can't believe we have major mixing problems out here given the track and intensity of the storm and where we were all week. Not a  single run had mixing anywhere near us until today really. 

RAP has 4" Liquid for you

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Latest RAP is showing 3" Liquid IMBY 

So far in general the HRRR is verifying with QPF but it's early it it never had a ton of qpf for anyone except SE of DC through 1am. Dale City was forecast for .4 or so and they probably got close to it if I had to guess. It had my in the .3 range through 1am for a few runs in a row and I'm pretty sure I"m close to that. The big rates are on tap so we'll how it does overnight. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

So far in general the HRRR is verifying with QPF but it's early it it never had a ton of qpf for anyone except SE of DC through 1am. Dale City was forecast for .4 or so and they probably got close to it if I had to guess. It had my in the .3 range through 1am for a few runs in a row and I'm pretty sure I"m close to that. The big rates are on tap so we'll how it does overnight. 

I'm getting borderline torrential sleet right now....30/28

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So far in general the HRRR is verifying with QPF but it's early it it never had a ton of qpf for anyone except SE of DC through 1am. Dale City was forecast for .4 or so and they probably got close to it if I had to guess. It had my in the .3 range through 1am for a few runs in a row and I'm pretty sure I"m close to that. The big rates are on tap so we'll how it does overnight. 

That was about 1.8 inches of very wet snow, may have been .4, plus we have had a good deal of sleet and some zr.

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