snjókoma Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just went around and got an average of .6"... compaction evident and temp keeps dropping. Just above freezing now. Paved surfaces are in the process of given up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Latest HRRR delays my changeover to 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Sleet showing up clearly on CC down to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 At 10:00 tomorrow morning the HRRR thinks I'll have about 14" of snow and the 3k NAM thinks I'll have about 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 30 with light snow in Round Hill. Just over 1". Street is now covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, cae said: At 10:00 tomorrow morning the HRRR thinks I'll have about 14" of snow and the 3k NAM thinks I'll have about 2". One thing to keep in mind is that this snow right now is less than 10:1 so use the snowfall maps with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 01z HRRR has 2.5" qpf for Fairfax Co. That seems a bit aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 0.5 inches down, temp down to 32.0, all roads starting to accumulate with moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I don't understand the somber mood here. We have multiple short range models (HRRR, RAP, Para-NAM) showing 2"+ of frozen precip over a decent area. Sure, it isn't the powder bomb we were all hoping for, but it looks memorable nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1z RAP is healthy and cold as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 00z NAM forecast sounding between 11 pm - 2 am at DCA shows the surge in > 0C between approximately 900 mb to 800 mb, but it also shows the surface temp staying at or below freezing through the duration. Once the transition happens, it certainly seems like we'll have sleet, sleet, and more sleet here in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Does HRRR also count sleet as snow or can it differentiate? Some of the HRRR maps are pretty impressive in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: At 10:00 tomorrow morning the HRRR thinks I'll have about 14" of snow and the 3k NAM thinks I'll have about 2". As a fellow Towsoner, here's hoping the HRRR scores a massive coup - hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: One thing to keep in mind is that this snow right now is less than 10:1 so use the snowfall maps with a grain of salt. I was using Kuchera ratios. At 10:1, the HRRR thinks I'll have about 19". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 It *just* hit 32.0 here. White slop has been falling at a nice clip, slight coating on cars and grass.. I expect the coverage to begin nicely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 32/31. Snow. Even K st has caved. Around 1/2". Windy AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Suppose its mod-hvy precip... how warm do 850s/925s have to be for it to be sleet rather than snow? I imagine with a shallow/marginal warm nose, mod/hvy snow would punch right through it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 28.2/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Already the best snow of the year. Sidewalks caved in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Does HRRR also count sleet as snow or can it differentiate? Some of the HRRR maps are pretty impressive in terms of snowfall. HRRR does not factor in sleet in the snow algorithm. I would advise against using the snow map in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingstonian Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Taking the dog out in my part of SSW Franconia/Kingstowne/Southern FFX:- Cars and trash cans looked to be close to 0.5"- Grass, mulch, etc., looked to be maybe 0.25"- In 4 winters here, this is the first time the HOA has treated the HOA-controlled streets, so roads are just wet.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Looking at the 1z hrrr seems like the model is showing colder air in the mid levels getting drawn down into the deepening low pressure so the sleet line meets a little more resistance in MD. That battleground is going to be pretty wild to watch. A couple more nudges and a million extra snow weenies get some solid totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowfan said: Sleet showing up clearly on CC down to the south. Def making a solid push north the last couple of frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Light/mod snow and 31.5 degrees, about 0.75" on grass but no sticking on streets or sidewalks yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I approve I worry you'll be fringed. 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very interesting ob. I have a perfect rectangle of snow on the street in front of my house from where my truck was parked all day. I put it on the driveway right when snow started. Great example of isolation on pavement. Road is throwing in the towel finally. Same here, except it's where the holly in front of my house casts a shadow on the sidewalk. That's been covered for a while, even when the rest of the concrete/blacktop is still trying to cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, hosj III said: I don't understand the somber mood here. We have multiple short range models (HRRR, RAP, Para-NAM) showing 2"+ of frozen precip over a decent area. Sure, it isn't the powder bomb we were all hoping for, but it looks memorable nonetheless. I get the impression many people are caught up on the idea that it's either a foot of snow -or- a slushy wet mess in the grass with nothing on the streets. There's some memorable ice potential if the surface stays cold enough and the sleet/freezing rain is heavy enough. Or maybe we'll surprise ourselves with snow in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I have been sitting on my front porch with big jacket, hat, gloves, and bourbon. Rates have definitely picked up, the sidewalks have caved, and the treated road is starting to justify a school cancellation for tomorrow. 30F Haymarket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looking at the 1z hrrr seems like the model is showing colder air in the mid levels getting drawn down into the deepening low pressure so the sleet line meets a little more resistance in MD. That battleground is going to be pretty wild to watch. A couple more nudges and a million extra snow weenies get some solid totals. Yea saw that. Hoping the cold wins out...I know we do this every time but that mix line seems to be going north pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR does not factor in sleet in the snow algorithm. I would advise against using the snow map in a situation like this. That would explain it. It's also consistent with what I'm seeing on pivotalweather. It has snow accumulations piling up when the p-type is sleet. I'm pretty sure it didn't do that for other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Can I get a link to the correlation coefficient radar? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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