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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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With all the sleet that we might get later overnight, I was wondering if it could be possible for us to get multiple inches of sleet. If so, once that stuff freezes in place, gonna be hell to pay with a solid Glacier on all surfaces.

 

I can still remember Jan/Feb 1994, the Winter of the Sleet Glacier

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Nice coating here. Started sticking right away with the rimey snow. Flakeage better after it went for a bit. Dulles sounding a little colder than forecast.. good. Some may just be when onset onsetted. 

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5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Don't the short-term models like RAP & HRRR take radar information into account?  Is this going to throw them off?

    yes, but it's not a big deal.    The radar reflectivity is geared towards high dbz events (warm season convection), so it doesn't do much in winter events.   And even if a site is missing, it knows that it's missing and doesn't treat it as "no precip."     It will be able to figure out pretty quickly that the synoptic scale supports lots of precip.   :)

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2 minutes ago, hosj III said:

Porch caving. Sidewalk just wet. Rap goes insane tomorrow morning with bands dropping .5"+ qpf per hour lol.

If anyone has a good site for surface temperatures I'd like to see it because my station is down. 

I am confused by your RAP statement.  Are you saying rates will be greater than half an inch per hour or 5 inched per hour?

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