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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sporadic flakes.  32/18 dont think surface temps will be a problem up here.  If winds flip northeast as the storm bombs I can't see it getting that warm along and west of 95. There is legit cold around this time not far to your north. 

You. are. gonna. Jackpot.

Guaranteed.

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Just now, Warrior Bigfoot said:

Do you honestly believe you're gonna get fringed? Come on, man.

No. I'm joking. Anytime a model shifts that much you have to question it. I could see small shifts dropping my qpf some. But something was whacky with that last run. And regardless I we wont have any mixing out here. So it's all good. Whatever falls falls :)

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sporadic flakes.  32/18 dont think surface temps will be a problem up here.  If winds flip northeast as the storm bombs I can't see it getting that warm along and west of 95. There is legit cold around this time not far to your north. 

It's impressive. The timing is so great. Still some nice low DP in northern part of the area. may help things cool more than even the colder expectations. 

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9 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

You really think surface temps will say above 32? I get if if you are talking like well south of BWI area but around Baltimore most guidance has us dropping to 29-30 before a rise back to freezing or above..

Yeah, I think with BWI at 37/20, those wet bulbs are probably closer to 30-32.  The latest LAMP (GFS-LAV) guidance has BWI dropping down to 33F, though I think that is awfully conservative.  You're right -- I was mainly referring to DC and points east and south..

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I think this storm is really hard to nail down because the temps are so close.  Our temps here at BWI are around 34.5 and has been falling nicely since sundown.  A lot of the gradients seem very tight so the storm moving 10 miles in either direction could really change local totals.  I'll be happy with 6" here at BWI.

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