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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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4 minutes ago, Ian said:

other than easterly wind component this is a pretty good setup for cold. good dry air in region should reinforce with in situ cad. people got a little overly scared I think. late season can rock.. we have a lot going for us.  

Agree. This is a more favorable setup than many other earlier-season ones. 

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3 minutes ago, Ian said:

To me it's been looking more and more like a potentially high impact event -- including travel -- into the 95 corridor. If anything we've seen more evidence that even the city could stay near or below freezing. 

What evidence is that?  I'm shocked to hear that!  Are you going with the hi res data over the globals?  They seem to have had opposite trends with thermals to me (between the two).

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1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Agree. This is a more favorable setup than many other earlier-season ones. 

I'd lean cold per current guidance still maybe. Either way I think we're doing pretty well. In a case like this if you want as much impact as possible you probably want some thundersleet to go with the rest.  

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8 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

HRRR 22z is nice

Love that run... it makes me confident that this storm will deliver. 

Last night, I feared that HRRR runs by now would have mixing all the way to the Blue Ridge while the storm develops too late for most of this region and blasts 40N, with meager snow totals and much more northeast of us. Glad to see that isn't happening.

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