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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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  On 3/14/2017 at 6:28 AM, ers-wxman1 said:

Might be slightly east of guidance but it's drawing in above normal Atlantic temps, air from Caribbean, GOM. Pretty significant mid level warm layer. 

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12z IAD sounding will be interesting.  Depending on the depth of the warm layer this advertised flip back to snow on the short term guidance may be in trouble.  Looks like the winds are shifting to more north over the past hour though so maybe we luck out.

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  On 3/14/2017 at 6:31 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I'm not expecting a quick flip back to snow, but I'm fascinated with the deepening process. Thoughts on surface temps? Think we'll be able to hold below freezing through mid morning?

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I spiked 1.2 degrees in 30 minutes, but have held steady the last 30 minutes. 

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  On 3/14/2017 at 6:31 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I'm not expecting a quick flip back to snow, but I'm fascinated with the deepening process. Thoughts on surface temps? Think we'll be able to hold below freezing through mid morning?

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Might be able too, but this stubborn warm layer aloft will take a while to erode.

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HRRR was really great this winter......until tonight. Massive failure. It's a shame. Radar is absolutely amazing. Maybe PSU ends up getting crushed.

Well, it gave us hope there for a second. For those of you that love sleet, enjoy your storm. I'm going to bed.

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  On 3/14/2017 at 6:58 AM, osfan24 said:

HRRR was really great this winter......until tonight. Massive failure. It's a shame. Radar is absolutely amazing. Maybe PSU ends up getting crushed.

Well, it gave us hope there for a second. For those of you that love sleet, enjoy your storm. I'm going to bed.

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It might end up close with the QPF. I think a met said you cant trust the snow maps because it counts sleet and frzn as snow. 

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HRRR was great, we just didnt realize it was gonna go to straight rain, and that the rain would likely soak us for hours overnight lol

There's nothing worse than 28 degree rain, driven by a COLD, COLD northerly wind.

 

G#dd@mned warm nose! Someone ought to punch this son of a b!tch storm hard  right in the nose. Make it a knockout

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  On 3/14/2017 at 6:58 AM, osfan24 said:

HRRR was really great this winter......until tonight. Massive failure. It's a shame. Radar is absolutely amazing. Maybe PSU ends up getting crushed.

Well, it gave us hope there for a second. For those of you that love sleet, enjoy your storm. I'm going to bed.

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It never looked good with the sleet line.  It accumulated snow with those QPF bombs.

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