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March 13-14, The Blizzard of 2017: Obs


Rtd208

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24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But the warm air coming in during the height of the storm would've been very hard to nail down. If you stayed all snow you got 18", if you flipped you got 6 or anywhere in between. So it was very tricky, and the NWS didn't do a good job illustrating this IMO. They were slow to even mention mixing and took a long time to reduce amounts (I saw the posted article explaining the reasoning)

One of the things that I try to do when talking to people about an upcoming event or pattern is mention where the uncertainty in the forecast is which could result in changes. People are very understanding if you give them a range of options to work with. But this may be easier to achieve on a smaller scale than with a very large forecast agency. 

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My uncles country house in NE Pa at 1900' 36". Biggest storm there since march 93. And they missed all the other blizzards we had here so it shows the different nature of this storm.

The difference between where I live and where I work is incredible. About 2" of rock solid ice here. Happy I wasnt here to see what my dad described as hours or pouring rain

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18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My uncles country house in NE Pa at 1900' 36". Biggest storm there since march 93. And they missed all the other blizzards we had here so it shows the different nature of this storm.

The difference between where I live and where I work is incredible. About 2" of rock solid ice here. Happy I wasnt here to see what my dad described as hours or pouring rain

I woke up about 5:30 AM to sleet pings on the window. I knew it was only downhill from there. When I got out of bed a couple hours later it was already raining

I like to check out the ski mountains to find where the jackpot zones were. Its never official with these places, but it looks like Hunter got three feet and then stopped counting. I saw Whiteface had 40" this morning and it was still snowing pretty good at the time. 

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Not a fan of this storm. We got 4" of snow, then an inch of sleet, and then pure rain from about noon to 4. We then got an additional 1/2 inch of snow. The rain flooded the street so the snow was sopping wet to shovel, especially where the plow had come by. Now everything is a skating rink. An absolute unmitigated disaster. 

The 5" put me at 43.3 for the season, identical to last season. 

On a final note, to me a 40" total upstate isnt that impressive since they get lake effect numbers that high anyway. Give me a 60" total and i will be impressed.

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21 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not a fan of this storm. We got 4" of snow, then an inch of sleet, and then pure rain from about noon to 4. We then got an additional 1/2 inch of snow. The rain flooded the street so the snow was sopping wet to shovel, especially where the plow had come by. Now everything is a skating rink. An absolute unmitigated disaster. 

The 5" put me at 43.3 for the season, identical to last season. 

On a final note, to me a 40" total upstate isnt that impressive since they get lake effect numbers that high anyway. Give me a 60" total and i will be impressed.

I don't think those particular locations get 40" from lake effect though.  Favored areas for very high totals are usually in the Tug Hill and southern Buffalo.

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26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not a fan of this storm. We got 4" of snow, then an inch of sleet, and then pure rain from about noon to 4. We then got an additional 1/2 inch of snow. The rain flooded the street so the snow was sopping wet to shovel, especially where the plow had come by. Now everything is a skating rink. An absolute unmitigated disaster. 

The 5" put me at 43.3 for the season, identical to last season. 

On a final note, to me a 40" total upstate isnt that impressive since they get lake effect numbers that high anyway. Give me a 60" total and i will be impressed.

40" synoptic is TOTALLY DIFFERENT from 40" LES. The liquid equivalent is much higher in synoptic snows.

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27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not a fan of this storm. We got 4" of snow, then an inch of sleet, and then pure rain from about noon to 4. We then got an additional 1/2 inch of snow. The rain flooded the street so the snow was sopping wet to shovel, especially where the plow had come by. Now everything is a skating rink. An absolute unmitigated disaster. 

The 5" put me at 43.3 for the season, identical to last season. 

On a final note, to me a 40" total upstate isnt that impressive since they get lake effect numbers that high anyway. Give me a 60" total and i will be impressed.

Whiteface does not get big totals from LE

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Just now, nzucker said:

40" synoptic is TOTALLY DIFFERENT from 40" LES. The liquid equivalent is much higher in synoptic snows.

Maybe so, but those amounts fell in the mountains and in areas where there is farmland and small towns. Now if Boston got 40" from one storm i would be impressed.

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Ok, but its a 5,000 foot mountain...lol...if my house were at 5,000 feet id have 30" from this storm

Not at all that's where all the warm air was during this for us. You would have gotten a little more snow during the snow portion but then rain instead of sleet

the coastal front seems to have set up just east of the nassua queens border. I'm on the LIRR right now and it looked pretty awful until about that point and bam there was a hell of allot more. So from like 2" to 6" in a couple miles 

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42 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not a fan of this storm. We got 4" of snow, then an inch of sleet, and then pure rain from about noon to 4. We then got an additional 1/2 inch of snow. The rain flooded the street so the snow was sopping wet to shovel, especially where the plow had come by. Now everything is a skating rink. An absolute unmitigated disaster. 

The 5" put me at 43.3 for the season, identical to last season. 

On a final note, to me a 40" total upstate isnt that impressive since they get lake effect numbers that high anyway. Give me a 60" total and i will be impressed.

I thought the storm might be lousy in Long Beach, but it ended up even lousier than I thought. I was hoping for at least 6" which even the warmer models suggested but ended up under 4. We had mostly rain with some sleet mixed in which made everything a slushy sloppy mess. Not much melted because of it being only around 34-35, but now there are sheets of ice and a couple or few inches of concrete on the ground. Where I am now in Woodside there's probably triple that on the ground and with that I lost the lead for winter snow I had over the city.

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34 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

yes, it was posted in our forum as a gag bc there are so many models and turns out it was pretty accurate lol

Too bad we don't run the 1.5 KM hi res UK  here like they do in the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

ps38_uk_model_upgrade_2016_infographic_resize.thumb.jpg.dc51456a777c31cbfc1e43e997e2637b.jpg

 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/31Hurr/webprogram/Paper243428.html

A major upgrade to the Met Office Global Model is planned for implementation before the middle of 2014. This includes a major revision to the model's dynamical core, improved physics and increased horizontal resolution to about 17 km at mid-latitudes.

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not at all that's where all the warm air was during this for us. You would have gotten a little more snow during the snow portion but then rain instead of sleet

the coastal front seems to have set up just east of the nassua queens border. I'm on the LIRR right now and it looked pretty awful until about that point and bam there was a hell of allot more. So from like 2" to 6" in a couple miles 

Yea,  from noon to 4 pm it was pouring rain and 35-36 degrees, melted a good 2 inches of the snowpack, leaving a remaining 3 inches or so of cement. I think that was the difference. Really just an awful storm for Nassau and Suffolk. 

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4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Not a fan of this storm. We got 4" of snow, then an inch of sleet, and then pure rain from about noon to 4. We then got an additional 1/2 inch of snow. The rain flooded the street so the snow was sopping wet to shovel, especially where the plow had come by. Now everything is a skating rink. An absolute unmitigated disaster. 

The 5" put me at 43.3 for the season, identical to last season. 

On a final note, to me a 40" total upstate isnt that impressive since they get lake effect numbers that high anyway. Give me a 60" total and i will be impressed.

40" synoptic is always impressive.

We didn't have much in the way of slush or puddles here for some reason.  We also had a much larger percentage of sleet vs snow compared to you.  There was more than enough rain, but it seemed only to bind the sleet together.  You cant make a dent in this stuff in the shade.

Not sure how efficient my rain gauge catch was (4" cylinder) but I only got 1.21" (combo of rain and melted).

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17 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

40" synoptic is always impressive.

We didn't have much on the way of slush or puddles here for some reason.  We also had a much larger percentage of sleet vs snow compared to you.  There was more than enough rain, but it seemed only to bind the sleet together.  You cant make a dent in this stuff in the shade.

Not sure how efficient my rain gauge catch was (4" cylinder) but I only got 1.21" (combo of rain and melted).

Yeah it's rock sold in wantagh but only about 2". There is a solid 10" here on 120th and broadway about 3 miles north west of where they take the parks measurments. Some of the piles in the shade are going to take a very long time to melt with all the cold air upcoming. Thy aren't really piles more like blocks of ice 

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8 minutes ago, RutgersWx92 said:

Had quite a snow squall come through Bridgewater about half an hour ago. Picked up a quick inch in 20 minutes. Visibilities couldn't have been more than a tenth of a mile. I suppose I should add that to my storm total to bring me up to 8.5-9".


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 I'm in it right now I drove down the parkway. Absolutely blinding.  this is more like a lake effect band, very impressive. Cars are actually pulling over

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