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March 13-14, The Blizzard of 2017: Obs

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Actually it was sort of the opposite.  It was a weaker system but it was taking a trajectory from further out from the SSE, so the warming wasn't going to come in over the metro.  Also it wasn't as rapidly deepening so less warming gets pulled west in that scenario.   If you are just barely north of a rapidly deepening low at 850 or 700 you will mix more than being in the same position of a low that isn't deepening as rapidly 

Oh so that's why we want a weaker system- our greatest snowstorms come from weak system with overrunning bumping up against arctic air a la Feb 1983, PD2 and last January.

Now hearing it's snowing again on the south shore of LI.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
You raise some good questions and I like your intrigue into what makes things tick.

 

Had this occurred in January exactly as it is occurring now I don't think there would be much sensible difference in snowfall accumulations across the coastal plain to be completely honest. The mid level warmth can win no matter what time of year and it's especially easy when the phase doesn't occur before your latitude since there is no cold air transport yet to be tapped into by dynamic cooling.

 

To your next question, the coastal itself was and is an absolute bomb, its H5 that didn't work out for us in time and favored interior areas where mid level warmth didn't intrude as far so they were fine regardless. But the southern energy was juiced with a straight firehose from the Gulf/Atlantic. 

 

Yes, the s/s outran the n/s. This is why, usually, having a negative nao is so vital to get a historic DC to Maine snowstorm. It would have slowed down the screaming progressive flow we have had all season and allowed for a full phase further south.

 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Boston evidently got 12-14 inches anyway before just changing over  despite many of the high res models last night backing off there.   So you can certainly see the system deepening made a difference there 

the changeover must have happened while it was falling quite hard, hence a delay of just an hour could mean an extra few inches

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BombsAway1288

BombsAway1288

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Boston evidently got 12-14 inches anyway before just changing over  despite many of the high res models last night backing off there.   So you can certainly see the system deepening made a difference there 

Yeah, they're NW suburbs are going to do very well if that mix line can continue to hold off. That's the kind of situation I was expecting here.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
Just now, sferic said:

OK, does it snow Friday night into Saturday? LOL

I just posted about it in the model thread.  I did not dig deep into the Euro solution when I saw it earlier, the thicknesses and 850s were marginal though for late March and that is the sort of system that often goes north of us.  There is a pretty nasty vortex though in SE Canada that could keep it south of us

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WeatherFeen2000

WeatherFeen2000

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Kudos to NWS Albany as well. They were bullish from the start. Basically had 2' area wide maps for their CWA on Saturday when I was worried about it shifting too far east and obliterating SNE like these usually do.

They got lucky! Meteorology comes down to luck in my opinion. Just yesterday even the top weather people thought NYC would get 20 inches. Mother Nature isn't exactly science I guess that's why we're so intrigued by it. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
I just posted about it in the model thread.  I did not dig deep into the Euro solution when I saw it earlier, the thicknesses and 850s were marginal though for late March and that is the sort of system that often goes north of us.  There is a pretty nasty vortex though in SE Canada that could keep it south of us


Yeah, that s/w looks like it deepens too late and N of us.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, danstorm said:

 

 Sleet is a total buzzkill.

I just passed 5 hours of nothin' but sleet :(  In the last few minutes I've started seeing some random flakes mixing in though so maybe it flips back before winding up but I won't hold my breath.  I spent hours out in it shoveling and I'm not done yet.  Got 12-14 before the changeover then 4-5" of pure sleet packing it down and turning the whole thing into a godawful, backbreaking mess.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:
6 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

You raise some good questions and I like your intrigue into what makes things tick.

Had this occurred in January exactly as it is occurring now I don't think there would be much sensible difference in snowfall accumulations across the coastal plain to be completely honest. The mid level warmth can win no matter what time of year and it's especially easy when the phase doesn't occur before your latitude since there is no cold air transport yet to be tapped into by dynamic cooling.

To your next question, the coastal itself was and is an absolute bomb, its H5 that didn't work out for us in time and favored interior areas where mid level warmth didn't intrude as far so they were fine regardless. But the southern energy was juiced with a straight firehose from the Gulf/Atlantic. 

 

Thanks, with so much southern energy this almost reminds me of an el nino system!

I have a feeling you're completely right, this systems reminds me of a couple I experienced in January 1994 (eastern PA got a lot of heavy snow in those too- it's Allentown's winter of record) and despite so much exceptionally cold air around back, all our storms that month were mixed precip storms.

Just talked to some friends back on Long Island and they are telling me the temperatures have dropped and the snow is coming down quite hard there, but nothing is on the radar?

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

It's storms like this that makes me glad I decided to pursue law enforcement vs a pro met lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

can you arrest a computer model or a storm for bad behavior lol?

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
Just now, mophstymeo01 said:

 


Strongest sustained winds of the day, though the flizzard itself may have stopped.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

I think it's all happening because the low center just passed.

This is actually a micro version of Dec 1992, when we had wind and rain for three days, and as soon as the Low center went east of us it changed to light snow, we got 1-3 when that happened.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Slizzard conditions have commenced.  (the drizzle is now tiny ice pellets).  Waiting patiently to see a few little snowflakes dying of loneliness on the way to earth.

It's entertaining to watch those flakes stick to the hood of your car.  You can literally count each flake lol.

 

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