Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Upton didn't even mention sleet for anyone west of the city. Bad on their part. 18-24"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 SN+ uptown manhattan. Winds picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Upton didn't even mention sleet for anyone west of the city. Bad on their part. 18-24"? Sleet line is about 30 miles south of me. Ripping through Morris County currently. I don't think Mt Holly mentioned sleet for Morris either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Upton didn't even mention sleet for anyone west of the city. Bad on their part. 18-24"? Yes, bad. Let's wait. NAM has sleet into Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Upton didn't even mention sleet for anyone west of the city. Bad on their part. 18-24"? agree....both Upton and Mt Holly have explaining to do as well as any other met.....the NAM/RGEM was on the table last night yet were downplayed or not even considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Manny said: SN+ uptown manhattan. Winds picking up Yea, but doesn't seem to be accumulating well.. Getting very pasty, and think i am now hearing pingers in Harlem. See all the TV mets knocked down city into 6 to 8 or 6 to 12 inch range.. Starting to think you may have to go pretty far north, even past Westchester, to get over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Dobbs Ferry, NY SN, 28.6/25, 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I disagree with Upton - I think trends are in our favor. We're sleeting now because of the WAA at 850 and the storm not bombing yet. But further south isn't a good analog for what's going to happen up here because they got the bulk of their precip from overrunning, before the 850 temps could cool as the 850 low passed and the storm got more organized and deepened. My sense is we flip for a while but flip back late AM and then have several hours of very heavy rates of snow. Orange County was always supposed to be the JP for this one but NYC still in line for really nasty conditions - over a foot of mixed snow/sleet and nasty winds and flooding. The QPF forecast looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Wanna know we have a problem? My friend is reporting sleet in Long valley, NJ. Elevation 970ft. That's between 78 and 80 well west of 287Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: COD has it. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ Thanks. I hate to say it but didn't the old nam out perform the para nam on this storm? Last night Para was east of the current location while the current location aligns with the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 ...temp @ 32.3*..rain w/ some sleet mixing in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Drz1111 said: I disagree with Upton - I think trends are in our favor. We're sleeting now because of the WAA at 850 and the storm not bombing yet. But further south isn't a good analog for what's going to happen up here because they got the bulk of their precip from overrunning, before the 850 temps could cool as the 850 low passed and the storm got more organized and deepened. My sense is we flip for a while but flip back late AM and then have several hours of very heavy rates of snow. Orange County was always supposed to be the JP for this one but NYC still in line for really nasty conditions - over a foot of mixed snow/sleet and nasty winds and flooding. The QPF forecast looks good so far. NYC will have no problem with QPF....it's going to be heavy heavy stuff in an hour or so whether it's snow or not. I do think for the city itself, things could get dicey....I really believe people are underestimating the warm nose. Eastern parts of the city/metro could get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. I hate to say it but didn't the old nam out perform the para nam on this storm? Last night Para was east of the current location while the current location aligns with the nam. I think you are right... Also, looking even farther back, didn't the GFS consistently have a coastal hugger last Friday and Saturday but everyone discounted it and went with the Euro, if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Snow and sleet mix in Kenilworth/RP area in central Union County NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2.5" otg, moderate snow and sleet at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, Manny said: SN+ uptown manhattan. Winds picking up I'm at 102 St and it's hard to hear over the sleet crashing against the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Snow/sleet transition happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Dynamic cooling once the low starts to bomb out. I don't even think it got crankin yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowjoe99 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Wallington NJ 07057 26 degrees/ 27 dewpoint 4.5 inches of snow so far (no mixing as of yet) and still moderate to heavy snow with winds starting to pick up You guys think I escape the brunt of the mixing? Or is my area gonna be a bust too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Wow on tv. They mentioned that Westchester already started mixing with sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, mranger48 said: Wanna know we have a problem? My friend is reporting sleet in Long valley, NJ. Elevation 970ft. That's between 78 and 80 well west of 287 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk But all that tells you is that the mixing lime is oriented due E-W. that's not sustainable at the height of the storm - it should realign parallel to the coast as this organizes. There's going to be an area that flips back and dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Dynamic cooling once the low starts to bomb out. I don't even think it got crankin yet.. 989 down 3mb last hour / no dynamic cooling here .The center tucked and is over VA beach . This will taint way further N than what was modeled. The center will kiss AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Sleet in southern Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, snowjoe99 said: Wallington NJ 07057 26 degrees/ 27 dewpoint 4.5 inches of snow so far (no mixing as of yet) You guys think I escape the brunt of the mixing? Or is my area gonna be a bust too? Definitely going to mix and probably change over, at least to sleet. Snow might fight back later though, we'll have to see. I think it's time to forget about the big snow totals and go outside for a walk to enjoy a major March winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: 989 / no dynamic cooling here .The center tucked and is over VA beach . This will taint way further N than what was modeled. You won't get much dynamic cooling until the mid levels deepen. The storm is still mostly WAA based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 But all that tells you is that the mixing lime is oriented due E-W. that's not sustainable at the height of the storm - it should realign parallel to the coast as this organizes. There's going to be an area that flips back and dumps.Most models had it oriented sw to ne leaving those north and west of 287 all snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Sleet with some snow now at 120th and broadway. Forks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3.5'' snow/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: 989 / no dynamic cooling here .The center tucked and is over VA beach . This will taint way further N than what was modeled. That's no good 23*/ENE @ 10-15mph/SN+ /~5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: 989 / no dynamic cooling here .The center tucked and is over VA beach . This will taint way further N than what was modeled. So she's even further west then what was pronged. I'm out plowing so checking in every once in a while. Oh well... bye bye 18-24..lol 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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