March 13-14, The Blizzard of 2017: Obs

[nesussxwx]

1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said:

Ripping snow, winds are intermittent. Dual pol shows I'm just north of the mix line. Sometimes you've got to ride the line...

Gotta smell the taint

[dmillz25]

Mixed with sleet here for about 10 mins but right back to snow

[PB GFI]

HVY sleet in Colts Neck since 5 AM

 

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Mixed with sleet here for about 10 mins but right back to snow

Unbelievable to be this close to the line. Doubt it will hold past 10AM but this is fun regardless. 

[psv88]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am all sleet now here in SW Suffolk.

 All snow up here. 31°. 3"

[SRRTA22]

Considerable increase in winds out of the NE here. Surface temp down to 28F

[Rtd208]

Have mostly sleet currently falling now in Fords (Woodbridge Twp).

[winterwarlock]

when will Mt Holly cave

[Manny]

SN+ Upper Manhattan, close to GW Bridge. 

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, Manny said:

SN+ Upper Manhattan, close to GW Bridge. 

Corroborated. 

[Juliancolton]

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hope you get 30"

Thank man. If I'm ever going to see 30" in one storm, this is the one to do it.

6" OTG

[Rtd208]

Regardless of precipitation type, the radar is jacked up to our south and coming north, wow.

[real]

Snow getting heavier -- but wetter -- in Harlem. Roads are a mess. I would guess 4 inches 

[nzucker]

7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

My apologies to eastern posters , from Monmouth County to Nassau and Suffolk this was a busted forecast .

 

For those N and W of the city good luck , the sleet line will get into EPA this morning so not everyone is safe yet .

 

The center just tucked and is coming  due N .

Someone may get 6 inches of sleet w 60 mph wind gusts , but I wanted to tell you the forecast was a bad one from my area NE .

Far NW  it will be a great storm 

I thought this storm was supposed to go until 8pm tonight, with heavy precip until 3pm. Isn't it a little early to call bust? This was always supposed to be just starting at 6am.

The Euro, HRRR, etc must be showing a lot of snow for a reason….as the CCB develops, heights and 850s will crash east. That's when we get the majority of our snow. 

People cried bust when it was raining/sleeting during Nemo and we got 12-18. People cried bust in Feb 2014 and we got 14-18. Silly.

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, nzucker said:

If you look at SPC mesoanalysis, there's not much support for continued mixing. 850 line is down by Toms River, NJ…NYC is still at -4C. 925mb line is down by ACY with NYC at -5C. You are probably seeing mixing mostly because of light precip.

I think the warm layer is actually above 850mb unfortunately.

I expect some sleet to get much further north than expected.  But I also think snow could mix back in south of the mix line, dynamically.  The temperature will may not be continuously linear from SE to NW.  There could be pockets of cooler air south of warmer air.  Some of the hires models have shown this.

As it looks now, I'd want to be well up into NEPA or the Catskills to escape the mid-level warning.  The Albany area looks really good right now.  On the positive side, funny things can happen with a SLP passing to your east and huge UVVs.  Yes the mid-level lows are tracking pretty far west, but it still bear's watching later.  Also for those who at least stay frozen, there may be a LOTof sleet with wind.  That should create a very wintry appeal even if it's not knee deep snow.

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

5.7" OTG... and dumping pretty good, models seem to have gotten much snowier overnight for Hudson valley, real excited for this one 

[MJO812]

Sleetstorm of 2017

I wouldn't be shocked to see a few more inches of sleet on top of my snow.

[weatherdude888]

25% Snow, 75% sleet in Staten Island.......radar returns appear as heavy snow........warm layer?

[nzucker]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Regardless of precipitation type, the radar is jacked up to our south and coming north, wow.

As the dynamics move north and the 850 low tracks to our SE, the temp profile will get colder. The 850 low is directly to our south right now which explains why we have some mixing, as well as the lighter precip.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7.2 inches 21.2 and heavy snow.

About 1.5 inch per hour rates here.

[LovingGulfLows]

4 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I thought this storm was supposed to go until 8pm tonight, with heavy precip until 3pm. Isn't it a little early to call bust? This was always supposed to be just starting at 6am.

The Euro, HRRR, etc must be showing a lot of snow for a reason….as the CCB develops, heights and 850s will crash east. That's when we get the majority of our snow. 

People cried bust when it was raining/sleeting during Nemo and we got 12-18. People cried bust in Feb 2014 and we got 14-18. Silly.

 

Yeah, looks like NYC will get the "warm converyor belt" snow/sleet/rain from 8 am to 1 pm....where the deepest moisture pool feeds into the metro area. This is where most in the region will rack up on their biggest totals. Just hope your backyard is snow during this time.

[WintersGrasp]

Sleet on the doorstep here in Essex county NJ. A few inches on the ground


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[EastonSN+]

Where can I find a good dual pole radar site? 

[nzucker]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think the warm layer is actually above 850mb unfortunately.

I expect some sleet to get much further north than expected.  But I also think snow could mix back in south of the mix line, dynamically.  The temperature will may not be continuously linear from SE to NW.  There could be pockets of cooler air south of warmer air.  Some of the hires models have shown this.

As it looks now, I'd want to be well up into NEPA or the Catskills to escape the mid-level warning.  The Albany area looks really good right now.  On the positive side, funny things can happen with a SLP passing to your east and huge UVVs.  Yes the mid-level lows are tracking pretty far west, but it still bear's watching later.  Also for those who at least stay frozen, there may be a LOTof sleet with wind.  That should create a very wintry appeal even if it's not knee deep snow.

 

My house in NE PA at 1500' is supposed to do really well with this. I think with the tighter track they could see 30". The track of the 850 low looks nice for them, a little too close for the immediate coast. Warmth is definitely around 800mb, and the 850 0C line has advanced northward towards central NJ.

A lot of people are forgetting though all the storms we mixed in….Jan 96 and PDII both had a lot of sleet mixed in. Christmas 2002 was rain until nighttime, then we got 8-12. Jan 27, 2011 was heavy sleet until the ULL passed and we got another 8" of snow. Nemo changed to rain and sleet during the day and then we got 10-15" at night, Feb 14 2014 was 10" snow, some rain, then 4-6" more snow...

Looking at radar, we could have some very heavy precipitation that dynamically cools the atmosphere. Also, the 850 low should still track to our SE, so areas that switched to sleet should transition back to snow in the afternoon.

People are forgetting how early it is. The meat of the storm was always expected to be 8am-3pm, not overnight. We could easily snow until 7-8pm tonight.

My original forecast was 16" for Central Park. I might slash that a little bit to like 13-14" but they'll still get a lot. Westchester looks awesome, expecting close to 2 feet here. Pouring snow outside and we should only mix a tiny bit.

[hooralph]

Hearing some pingers on the UWS!

[PB GFI]

The center came up W of Wallops , this should change to rain all the up into NYC.

Flood Advisory on the Jersey shore I think that gets extended onto E LI.

 

 

sorry guys 

[nesussxwx]

7.1".

21F. Moderate snow.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Where can I find a good dual pole radar site? 

COD has it.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/

[Metasequoia]

Back and forth from snow to sleet in Battery Park City. I just hope it doesn't rain.

[Morris]

Lol at the venerable EPS. Stop doubting the NAM. It's so old school.