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March 13-14, The Blizzard of 2017: Obs


Rtd208

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Possible for the south shore if you haven't cleared 4" now it's going to be hard to get to warning criteria in sleet 

The best part is, I can never get a plow to go down my block until after a storm ends and I've had a plow come down 4 times in the last 30 mins.  

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2 minutes ago, tim said:

...adding to the BUST..looking @ 'future casts'..there is NO wrap around snows as it pulls away..add the fact this thing is done

by late afternoon..alot of OCM will need to explain what the F went wrong!!

More that they'll have to justify on two fronts: a) why they made such an early call; and b why they stuck with that call through yesterday's obvious shifts west. 

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2 minutes ago, tim said:

...adding to the BUST..looking @ 'future casts'..there is NO wrap around snows as it pulls away..add the fact this thing is done

by late afternoon..alot of OCM will need to explain what the F went wrong!!

I had just looked at the radar and that was my personal "nowcast" opinion also.  I'm about 10 miles SW of Allentown PA.....mostly sleet here now.  I just don't see any back building going on as the storm marches NE.  

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3 minutes ago, tim said:

...adding to the BUST..looking @ 'future casts'..there is NO wrap around snows as it pulls away..add the fact this thing is done

by late afternoon..alot of OCM will need to explain what the F went wrong!!

I gave up on this storm by about 7 pm last night so not surprised. A better way to forecast these things is needed. You can't confidently predict 2 feet and panic everyone with this amount of uncertainty. The busts are getting more frequent and more dramatic IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

More that they'll have to justify on two fronts: a) why they made such an early call; and b why they stuck with that call through yesterday's obvious shifts west. 

Can you guys stop and STFU? The storm just started and you are already crying bust. Every time we go through this crap on here.

Heavy snow here in Westchester, getting crushed. As the heavier echoes push north, the sleet will change back to snow. We will see dynamic cooling as the low intensifies, as well as crashing of the 850mb temps.

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

Can you guys stop and STFU? The storm just started and you are already crying bust. Every time we go through this crap on here.

Heavy snow here in Westchester, getting crushed. As the heavier echoes push north, the sleet will change back to snow. We will see dynamic cooling as the low intensifies, as well as crashing of the 850mb temps.

I was more echoing LI's feelings. Here in Harlem it's still SN+. It's easy to keep your perspective from where you are. LI will have a lot of trouble coming back from where they are. 

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4 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Can you guys stop and STFU? The storm just started and you are already crying bust. Every time we go through this crap on here.

Heavy snow here in Westchester, getting crushed. As the heavier echoes push north, the sleet will change back to snow. We will see dynamic cooling as the low intensifies, as well as crashing of the 850mb temps.

Unless you know something I don't........over here in PA the precipitation is not changing back to snow with the heavier echos........they are the sleet.  I'm on the northern edge of the heavy echo's, 4 miles NW of the eastern tip of Berks Co. PA.  People to my south are not reporting snow over in the Philly obs thread.  (edit where I'm at on the northern edge of the echos, it's a little bit of snow falling with a whole lot of pinging going on)

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2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Posting about a bust once or twice is acceptable...in 3 different threads within the last hour? Not acceptable. Please give it a rest.

Huuuge bust!.....for coastal sections, CNJ and parts of NNJ, otherwise you guys are ripping up north.

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2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

If you look at SPC mesoanalysis, there's not much support for continued mixing. 850 line is down by Toms River, NJ…NYC is still at -4C. 925mb line is down by ACY with NYC at -5C. You are probably seeing mixing mostly because of light precip.

Nope there's def a warm layer somewhere in there.   

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7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Huuuge bust!.....for coastal sections, CNJ and parts of NNJ, otherwise you guys are ripping up north.

 

My apologies to eastern posters , from Monmouth County to Nassau and Suffolk this was a busted forecast .

 

For those N and W of the city good luck , the sleet line will get into EPA this morning so not everyone is safe yet .

 

The center just tucked and is coming  due N .

Someone may get 6 inches of sleet w 60 mph wind gusts , but I wanted to tell you the forecast was a bad one from my area NE .

Far NW  it will be a great storm 

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6 minutes ago, nzucker said:

If you look at SPC mesoanalysis, there's not much support for continued mixing. 850 line is down by Toms River, NJ…NYC is still at -4C. 925mb line is down by ACY with NYC at -5C. You are probably seeing mixing mostly because of light precip.

Warm layer is probably somewhere between the 700mb and 850mb layer...probably around 800mb so you won't really be able to see it on SPC mesoanalysis....that's what is causing it to sleet. Shallow warm layers have screwed people over plenty of times...it doesn't take much to ruin a potentially large snowfall.

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

If you look at SPC mesoanalysis, there's not much support for continued mixing. 850 line is down by Toms River, NJ…NYC is still at -4C. 925mb line is down by ACY with NYC at -5C. You are probably seeing mixing mostly because of light precip.

Warm wedge looks like it is above 850 atm, believe it or not. Right around 775-800mb.

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