LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:00 AM, Dan76 said: WWA next? Expand Possible for the south shore if you haven't cleared 4" now it's going to be hard to get to warning criteria in sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:03 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Possible for the south shore if you haven't cleared 4" now it's going to be hard to get to warning criteria in sleet Expand The best part is, I can never get a plow to go down my block until after a storm ends and I've had a plow come down 4 times in the last 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:02 AM, Rjay said: Or flood advisory lol Expand Can't justify southeastern Suffolk being under a winter storm warning, hard to even justify a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 its a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Almost all snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 ...adding to the BUST..looking @ 'future casts'..there is NO wrap around snows as it pulls away..add the fact this thing is done by late afternoon..alot of OCM will need to explain what the F went wrong!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:06 AM, tim said: ...adding to the BUST..looking @ 'future casts'..there is NO wrap around snows as it pulls away..add the fact this thing is done by late afternoon..alot of OCM will need to explain what the F went wrong!! Expand More that they'll have to justify on two fronts: a) why they made such an early call; and b why they stuck with that call through yesterday's obvious shifts west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Heavy snow continue in berkley heights unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:06 AM, tim said: ...adding to the BUST..looking @ 'future casts'..there is NO wrap around snows as it pulls away..add the fact this thing is done by late afternoon..alot of OCM will need to explain what the F went wrong!! Expand I had just looked at the radar and that was my personal "nowcast" opinion also. I'm about 10 miles SW of Allentown PA.....mostly sleet here now. I just don't see any back building going on as the storm marches NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:10 AM, Wetbulbs88 said: More that they'll have to justify on two fronts: a) why they made such an early call; and b why they stuck with that call through yesterday's obvious shifts west. Expand I wouldn't call yesterday's shift west obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:06 AM, marsplex said: its a bust Expand Don't sound so disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntingtonwx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Heavy sleet here in Huntington, long island. along rt 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:06 AM, tim said: ...adding to the BUST..looking @ 'future casts'..there is NO wrap around snows as it pulls away..add the fact this thing is done by late afternoon..alot of OCM will need to explain what the F went wrong!! Expand I gave up on this storm by about 7 pm last night so not surprised. A better way to forecast these things is needed. You can't confidently predict 2 feet and panic everyone with this amount of uncertainty. The busts are getting more frequent and more dramatic IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:10 AM, Wetbulbs88 said: More that they'll have to justify on two fronts: a) why they made such an early call; and b why they stuck with that call through yesterday's obvious shifts west. Expand Can you guys stop and STFU? The storm just started and you are already crying bust. Every time we go through this crap on here. Heavy snow here in Westchester, getting crushed. As the heavier echoes push north, the sleet will change back to snow. We will see dynamic cooling as the low intensifies, as well as crashing of the 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Posting about a bust once or twice is acceptable...in 3 different threads within the last hour? Not acceptable. Please give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:14 AM, nzucker said: Can you guys stop and STFU? The storm just started and you are already crying bust. Every time we go through this crap on here. Heavy snow here in Westchester, getting crushed. As the heavier echoes push north, the sleet will change back to snow. We will see dynamic cooling as the low intensifies, as well as crashing of the 850mb temps. Expand I was more echoing LI's feelings. Here in Harlem it's still SN+. It's easy to keep your perspective from where you are. LI will have a lot of trouble coming back from where they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:13 AM, Juliancolton said: Don't sound so disappointed Expand Hope you get 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:14 AM, nzucker said: Can you guys stop and STFU? The storm just started and you are already crying bust. Every time we go through this crap on here. Heavy snow here in Westchester, getting crushed. As the heavier echoes push north, the sleet will change back to snow. We will see dynamic cooling as the low intensifies, as well as crashing of the 850mb temps. Expand Unless you know something I don't........over here in PA the precipitation is not changing back to snow with the heavier echos........they are the sleet. I'm on the northern edge of the heavy echo's, 4 miles NW of the eastern tip of Berks Co. PA. People to my south are not reporting snow over in the Philly obs thread. (edit where I'm at on the northern edge of the echos, it's a little bit of snow falling with a whole lot of pinging going on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Ripping sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 If you look at SPC mesoanalysis, there's not much support for continued mixing. 850 line is down by Toms River, NJ…NYC is still at -4C. 925mb line is down by ACY with NYC at -5C. You are probably seeing mixing mostly because of light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:13 AM, Juliancolton said: Don't sound so disappointed Expand LOL, you know it, im actually very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:16 AM, BxEngine said: Posting about a bust once or twice is acceptable...in 3 different threads within the last hour? Not acceptable. Please give it a rest. Expand Huuuge bust!.....for coastal sections, CNJ and parts of NNJ, otherwise you guys are ripping up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Hrrr shows middlesex county reporting different totals. North end could see 12 more inches and south end 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:17 AM, nzucker said: If you look at SPC mesoanalysis, there's not much support for continued mixing. 850 line is down by Toms River, NJ…NYC is still at -4C. 925mb line is down by ACY with NYC at -5C. You are probably seeing mixing mostly because of light precip. Expand Nope there's def a warm layer somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just got up. Impossible to see how much snow outside (have a terrace that gets windblown clear). But visibility isn't that low compared to Jan 16 and even the Feb storm at its height. Plus side - it's 28 and it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Sleetfest after 4 inches of snow here in Sheepshead Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Ripping snow, winds are intermittent. Dual pol shows I'm just north of the mix line. Sometimes you've got to ride the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:18 AM, Rjay said: Huuuge bust!.....for coastal sections, CNJ and parts of NNJ, otherwise you guys are ripping up north. Expand My apologies to eastern posters , from Monmouth County to Nassau and Suffolk this was a busted forecast . For those N and W of the city good luck , the sleet line will get into EPA this morning so not everyone is safe yet . The center just tucked and is coming due N . Someone may get 6 inches of sleet w 60 mph wind gusts , but I wanted to tell you the forecast was a bad one from my area NE . Far NW it will be a great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:17 AM, nzucker said: If you look at SPC mesoanalysis, there's not much support for continued mixing. 850 line is down by Toms River, NJ…NYC is still at -4C. 925mb line is down by ACY with NYC at -5C. You are probably seeing mixing mostly because of light precip. Expand Warm layer is probably somewhere between the 700mb and 850mb layer...probably around 800mb so you won't really be able to see it on SPC mesoanalysis....that's what is causing it to sleet. Shallow warm layers have screwed people over plenty of times...it doesn't take much to ruin a potentially large snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:17 AM, nzucker said: If you look at SPC mesoanalysis, there's not much support for continued mixing. 850 line is down by Toms River, NJ…NYC is still at -4C. 925mb line is down by ACY with NYC at -5C. You are probably seeing mixing mostly because of light precip. Expand Warm wedge looks like it is above 850 atm, believe it or not. Right around 775-800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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