F5TornadoF5 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Time for that mix line to hit a wall...please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Every model looked great for a big blizzard for the coast. Models shouldn't go out past 60 hours. Friggin sucks Huge bust here 2 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I lost so much sleep this week tracking this turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 NAM FTW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I lost so much sleep this week tracking this turd Me too but I've been on sick leave at least it took my mind off some other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Everyone relax. I know the bust calls are normal, but it's 6 am. This thing is just starting to crank near the tidewater of VA. Brutal forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: NAM FTW.. We really hoped it was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: We really hoped it was wrong. We also have to give the UKMET credit for showing the tucked in solution longer while all other models were to far east including Euro, EPS,GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Every model was showing a big blizzard except for the Nam Nam once again beat every model and has been doing so lately This awesome setup that many people thought we had for this system failed big time. LOL at closing schools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We also have to give the UKMET credit for showing the tucked in solution longer while all other models were to far east including Euro, EPS,GFS. Better techniques have to be developed. It is unfair to the public at large for educated scientists to be predicting disaster when that outcome is not likely. And despite what some of the younger folks think, storms of more than a foot are just not likely in these parts. I don't know how they should deal with this, but having our sanitation men come out at 10 pm twice this year for special garbage pickup when the actual storms were so meh is also unfair to them. A 3-6 inch snow, even a 4-8, does not require this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model was showing a big blizzard except for the Nam Nam once again beat every model and has been doing so lately This awesome setup that many people thought we had for this system failed big time. LOL at closing schools I've never seen you so disgusted. But it has to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Better techniques have to be developed. It is unfair to the public at large for educated scientists to be predicting disaster when that outcome is not likely. And despite what some of the younger folks think, storms of more than a foot are just not likely in these parts. I don't know how they should deal with this, but having our sanitation men come out at 10 pm twice this year for special garbage pickup when the actual storms were so meh is also unfair to them. A 3-6 inch snow, even a 4-8, does not require this. true dat...long live the MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Christ, give it a rest. Your posting style is brutal. Weather and climate are chaotic systems. We use various models as guidance, not gospel. Read more and post less. Or stick to banter. You've written this same message regarding forecasting each large storm that doesn't occur the way you want it to. Relax man, or move to North West Jersey to increase your yearly totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, winterwarlock said: true dat...long live the MAM I am not saying it isn't hazardous out, and this would be a snow day in most locales in our region's schools, but it would not have been in areas like Newark or Elizabeth in the past, and certainly not NYC. But 5 inches? This is not a reason for the dire panic that was created. By the way I now hear the sleet outside here in Colonia. It is 630 and the snow is over already. We aren't going to get close to what was predicted here. And scientists want to know why people are not convinced of climate change. While I accept the science, the average Joe looks out his window and says darn they can't even get a snowstorm right....he doesn't know the difference between climate and weather but he knows they can't get the weather right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Christ, give it a rest. Your posting style is brutal. Weather and climate are chaotic systems. We use various models as guidance, not gospel. Read more and post less. Or stick to banter. You've written this same message regarding forecasting each large storm that doesn't occur the way you want it to. Relax man, or move to North West Jersey to increase your yearly totals. This IS the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This NW trend with storms right up until they begin has been the real deal in recent years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Hey guys, I just woke up (hey! I'm older! in my thirties! and our kids are young!), what's the story? Obviously, particularly for me at MMU. I see everyone losing their minds, but I don't know where everyone lives, and I'm too anxious to post this in the other threads because they're a bit testy. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I am not saying it isn't hazardous out, and this would be a snow day in most locales in our region's schools, but it would not have been in areas like Newark or Elizabeth in the past, and certainly not NYC. But 5 inches? This is not a reason for the dire panic that was created. By the way I now hear the sleet outside here in Colonia. It is 630 and the snow is over already. We aren't going to get close to what was predicted here. And scientists want to know why people are not convinced of climate change. While I accept the science, the average Joe looks out his window and says darn they can't even get a snowstorm right....he doesn't know the difference between climate and weather but he knows they can't get the weather right. Agreed. This is the issue with climate change (disclaimer: I believe in it, we need to do something, I can't wait until solar roof shingles are affordable and feasible for my house, etc.): we're preaching to (and over) everyone that we need to change now because our fancy models say so; meanwhile, our fancy models are sometimes hilariously wrong and out of agreement one day out, let alone one hundred years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, North and West of Town said: Hey guys, I just woke up (hey! I'm older! in my thirties! and our kids are young!), what's the story? Obviously, particularly for me at MMU. I see everyone losing their minds, but I don't know where everyone lives, and I'm too anxious to post this in the other threads because they're a bit testy. Thanks! They are testy today. basically outside north jersey and SE NY this is looking like a huge bust. Sleet into parts of lower N NJ already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: They are testy today. basically outside north jersey and SE NY this is looking like a huge bust. Sleet into parts of lower N NJ already Thanks! The NWS still has me at 12" to 18" at MMU. Think that's reasonable? FWIW, we have 3" on the ground here already and the wind is howling and swirling like Frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, North and West of Town said: Thanks! The NWS still has me at 12" to 18" at MMU. Think that's reasonable? FWIW, we have 3" on the ground here already and the wind is howling and swirling like Frozen. I am not the guy to ask about accumulations. I'm a social scientist who tracks weather events as a hobby and am interested primarily in its social impacts. There are far better sources to consult on this. But personally, if you can keep the sleet out, you'll have a nice storm. Sleet is already racing north early. Someone says the NAM has the sleet into Orange Co. I'd believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I am not the guy to ask about accumulations. I'm a social scientist who tracks weather events as a hobby and am interested primarily in its social impacts. There are far better sources to consult on this. But personally, if you can keep the sleet out, you'll have a nice storm. Sleet is already racing north early. Someone says the NAM has the sleet into Orange Co. I'd believe it. Ha! Thanks. And I'm in sales and marketing, sooooooooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Better techniques have to be developed. It is unfair to the public at large for educated scientists to be predicting disaster when that outcome is not likely. And despite what some of the younger folks think, storms of more than a foot are just not likely in these parts. I don't know how they should deal with this, but having our sanitation men come out at 10 pm twice this year for special garbage pickup when the actual storms were so meh is also unfair to them. A 3-6 inch snow, even a 4-8, does not require this. Who predicted disaster? You're blaming forecasters for making the right call with the tools available. The fact that the public hypes itself into thinking 12-18" is crippling is more of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, North and West of Town said: Ha! Thanks. And I'm in sales and marketing, sooooooooooo... Done a bit of that in my youth too. Wasn't too bad at it either, but it was a very unique setup....ad space for a fishing magazine. Before internet, you couldn't go wrong with something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Is the NAM the new KING?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Anyone have any recommendations for pretty radars that regular people can understand? I do like the aesthetic of weather.com radars, but not sure if it accurately represents the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Snowshack said: Who predicted disaster? You're blaming forecasters for making the right call with the tools available. The fact that the public hypes itself into thinking 12-18" is crippling is more of an issue. Well you are right about the public, and that is my primary interest in these events. How does it affect people? But did they make the right calls with the tools available? I am not a met, but it seems there were tools they chose to ignore, maybe for sound reasons I don't know. As for disaster, most of the public does not like snow, and view 2 feet as a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snowshack said: Who predicted disaster? You're blaming forecasters for making the right call with the tools available. The fact that the public hypes itself into thinking 12-18" is crippling is more of an issue. This is very true. The public has to manage expectations better. With that said, I didn't sense a lot of panic in the public outside of those people on boards such as this. But I do think perhaps there should be a bit more skepticism built into forecasts, both NWS and tv mets. This is all Monday morning quarterbacking, and may be premature, but was a blizzard watch really needed to be issued Sunday? How much leeway do people really need in this day and age? Yes, people needed to be alerted to possible power outages/coastal flooding.. But does it really matter if 2 days ahead of time you give a forecast of 8 to 16 or 12 to 18?.. And once you toss out a number, its so hard to backtrack because the public will always think about the highest number they saw and its very hard to recalibrate expectations later, not to mention, most people actually get weather from gossip/co workers and not official sources. Plus, even tv mets now show various models, and that may just confuse people more because we all know that model are often exaggerated/wrong..When I was a kid, I always remember they usually wouldn't give official snowfall tallies until the night before a storm. Maybe wise to trend back closer to something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Listening to 880 AM reporters saying "it's raining" or it's an "icy rain" falling in Manhattan lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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