Spring Banter Thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The core of the strongest winds were from SE Nassau out into Suffolk. That was the fastest pressure falls that I ever experienced right before the eye raced through my location. It was the only time that I got to see the needle moving in real time on my home barometer. Had friends in the Massapequa area that were without power for about a week from all the downed trees and power lines. Seems like most of the wind damage near and east of the eye occurred in about a 15-20 minute period before the eye crossed the coast.

Sounds like wantagh would have been right on the edge of the strongest winds. One thing that was definitely absent in Gloria were the big blow down areas we had in Sandy. Not sure why that is. But growing up the Gloria damage in the preserves was limited to a few uprooted big trees here and there. Sandy left 100 yard plus swaths where trees went down like dominos. Those blow downs will be visible for a generation or more 

[Rjay]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I remember seeing on the some old weather channel footage the surge was expected to be 10-15'! That would have surpassed Sandy for western LI. Even still 7' is what I had during Sandy in wantagh so Gloria at high tide would have been similar at least were I am. 

That's bc they had it at Cat 3 strength and it was really Cat 1 strength when it made it up here. 

[Rjay]

24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Sounds like wantagh would have been right on the edge of the strongest winds. One thing that was definitely absent in Gloria were the big blow down areas we had in Sandy. Not sure why that is. But growing up the Gloria damage in the preserves was limited to a few uprooted big trees here and there. Sandy left 100 yard plus swaths where trees went down like dominos. Those blow downs will be visible for a generation or more 

If March 2010 and Irene didn't happen just before Sandy then the amount of tree damage would have been even more incredible.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Sounds like wantagh would have been right on the edge of the strongest winds. One thing that was definitely absent in Gloria were the big blow down areas we had in Sandy. Not sure why that is. But growing up the Gloria damage in the preserves was limited to a few uprooted big trees here and there. Sandy left 100 yard plus swaths where trees went down like dominos. Those blow downs will be visible for a generation or more 

Yeah, the strongest winds were just east of Wantagh during Gloria and came in a quick pulse rather than the extended duration of Sandy. Gloria's peak winds were in a narrow zone near and just to the right of the eye where the southerlies were right off the ocean. 

Here are the OBS for Gloria in Bridgeport ,CT:

12:00 PM	72.0 °F	69.1 °F	91%	28.95 in	0.8 mi	East	63.3 mph	80.6 mph	0.09 in	Fog , Rain	Light Rain
	METAR KBDR 271600Z 09055G70KT 3/4SM -RA FG OVC007 22/21 A2895 RMK PRESFR PK WND 0970/45 SLP804 P0009 T02220206
1:00 PM	70.0 °F	66.9 °F	90%	28.59 in	0.5 mi	East	69.0 mph	82.9 mph	0.11 in	Fog , Rain	Light Rain
	METAR KBDR 271700Z 09060G72KT 1/2SM -RA FG OVC008 21/19 A2859 RMK PRESFR SLPNO P0011 T02110194
1:20 PM	-	-	N/A%	28.59 in	3.0 mi	South	73.6 mph	92.1 mph	N/A	Fog , Rain	Light Rain
	SPECI KBDR 271720Z 18064G80KT 3SM -RA FG OVC008 A2859 RMK PRESRR/LOWEST PRES 850/WSHFT APRNT EYE OVHD SLPNO 5100/
2:00 PM	73.9 °F	68.0 °F	82%	28.78 in	20.0 mi	West	29.9 mph	36.8 mph	0.02 in		Mostly Cloudy

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The core of the strongest winds were from SE Nassau out into Suffolk. That was the fastest pressure falls that I ever experienced right before the eye raced through my location. It was the only time that I got to see the needle moving in real time on my home barometer. Had friends in the Massapequa area that were without power for about a week from all the downed trees and power lines. Seems like most of the wind damage near and east of the eye occurred in about a 15-20 minute period before the eye crossed the coast.

I was in Massapequa Park south of Sunrise during Gloria.  These were some of the photos that I took.  Unfortunately they are not labeled (sort of used to be, but the HTML is ancient).  The photos from Tobay Beach are obvious.  The others are on and arround Lakeshore Blvd south of Rt 27.

http://www.northshorewx.com/1985gloria.asp

 

Edit: I really need to re-code that page one of these years.  But the pics are still there if you click the thumbnails.

[Rjay]

How'd the dunes along the Ocean Parkway hold up during Gloria?

[Paragon]

22 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It came NNW at the very end of the track so it was over the Gulf Stream most of its life up here. The same storm 50 miles west is the ultimate disaster scenario. 

Worse than Sandy? I've always thought that a hybrid storm would be worse than a true hurricane because a true hurricane has its most intense winds close to the center while a hybrid storm spreads the winds out.

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the strongest winds were just east of Wantagh during Gloria and came in a quick pulse rather than the extended duration of Sandy. Gloria's peak winds were in a narrow zone near and just to the right of the eye where the southerlies were right off the ocean. 

Here are the OBS for Gloria in Bridgeport ,CT:

12:00 PM	72.0 °F	69.1 °F	91%	28.95 in	0.8 mi	East	63.3 mph	80.6 mph	0.09 in	Fog , Rain	Light Rain
	METAR KBDR 271600Z 09055G70KT 3/4SM -RA FG OVC007 22/21 A2895 RMK PRESFR PK WND 0970/45 SLP804 P0009 T02220206
1:00 PM	70.0 °F	66.9 °F	90%	28.59 in	0.5 mi	East	69.0 mph	82.9 mph	0.11 in	Fog , Rain	Light Rain
	METAR KBDR 271700Z 09060G72KT 1/2SM -RA FG OVC008 21/19 A2859 RMK PRESFR SLPNO P0011 T02110194
1:20 PM	-	-	N/A%	28.59 in	3.0 mi	South	73.6 mph	92.1 mph	N/A	Fog , Rain	Light Rain
	SPECI KBDR 271720Z 18064G80KT 3SM -RA FG OVC008 A2859 RMK PRESRR/LOWEST PRES 850/WSHFT APRNT EYE OVHD SLPNO 5100/
2:00 PM	73.9 °F	68.0 °F	82%	28.78 in	20.0 mi	West	29.9 mph	36.8 mph	0.02 in		Mostly Cloudy

That's why I don't think a true hurricane would give us as much damage as Sandy did.  1 they are smaller and 2 they pass through more quickly.

People don't realize how absolutely HUGE Sandy was.  In terms of size maybe the largest storm that has EVER hit the east coast.  I'd put it right up there with the March 1993 storm.

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

That's bc they had it at Cat 3 strength and it was really Cat 1 strength when it made it up here. 

Sandy's surge was 10 feet I think? Size of the storm is a major component of surge, one of the reasons I have major issues with the SS scale.  Merely accounting for wind speed isn't enough.

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Getting the feeling that this is going to be an extremely humid summer unfortunately. Heavy spring rains, high soil moisture, tends to create a positive feedback loop, through evaporation, etc. I don't think it's going to be as hot as last summer but the humidity will make up for it. Probably above normal for temps but not like the previous summer. I hope I'm wrong...

forget humid, how about purely hot with lots of downsloping westerly winds.  I don't want seabreezes or useless southerly winds.

 

Last summer wasn't really hot and the soil can dry up quickly no matter how wet the spring is.  Look at 1983 and how awesomely hot and dry the summer was after a wet spring   Last summer wasn't hot - to be a truly hot summer you need 30+ days over 90 degrees and at least 1 day over 100 degrees- forget about average temps, because urban heat island contaminates that.

[Paragon]

22 hours ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

No one knows how common the 1821 hurricane occurs. It could be a 200 year storm or 500 year storm or more. 6 years earlier in 1815 a hurricane makes landfall in Suffolk County with a track and intensity very similar to the 1938 hurricane as noted by David Ludlum. A category 3 hurricane making landfall in the center of long Island is probably more likely to occur than a category 3 directly over New York City or Nassau County.

Not to mention we had hurricanes that are supposed to be even more rare in this century.  Wasn't there a hurricane in 1903 that "bended back" and hit ACY directly?

 

I suspect that each of these events should occur at least once a century.  We're not talking about an asteroid strike- that would be a once in a 500 year event lol.

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I hope he's right too!! The summer droughts the last few years have been brutal on the island. Killing trees and making any new landscaping a challenge. Plus who here doesn't love thunderstorms!!

unfortunately summer thunderstorms are rare on the south shore.  You have to wait for August or fall when the ocean warms up enough.

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The core of the strongest winds were from SE Nassau out into Suffolk. That was the fastest pressure falls that I ever experienced right before the eye raced through my location. It was the only time that I got to see the needle moving in real time on my home barometer. Had friends in the Massapequa area that were without power for about a week from all the downed trees and power lines. Seems like most of the wind damage near and east of the eye occurred in about a 15-20 minute period before the eye crossed the coast.

I hated those aneroid barometers and alcohol thermometers- they were never accurate  I never had accurate weather measuring equipment (except for my rain gage) until I went all digital in the mid 90s.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Sandy's surge was 10 feet I think? Size of the storm is a major component of surge, one of the reasons I have major issues with the SS scale.  Merely accounting for wind speed isn't enough.

My point was that in this particular case the surge forecasts were off due to the storm being weaker than thought by the NHC.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

My point was that in this particular case the surge forecasts were off due to the storm being weaker than thought by the NHC.

Yea, I wonder if Gloria was ever that strong- even off the Carolinas.  It never even looked like a 130 mph hurricane.

 

As far as Sandy is concerned, center island and eastern LI didn't get the worst of it- it was more of a NJ coast/NYC/western LI storm.  The only thing missing were the excessive heavy rains that south Jersey got.  I would have loved to get those rains and give back some of the surge lol.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Worse than Sandy? I've always thought that a hybrid storm would be worse than a true hurricane because a true hurricane has its most intense winds close to the center while a hybrid storm spreads the winds out.

 Your missing the whole point. It's that very intense core that leads to the highest surge. 38 had surge heights between 15-20' just east of the center. At the time there wasn't much to destroy out on eastern Long Island. Even still parts of fire island were wiped clean. Similar to what occurred in Mississippi in Katrina and Texas during Ike. That type of surge 50 miles west is incomprehensible. It doesn't matter if the surge only lasts an hour. That's going to cause 90% of monetary damages.

[forkyfork]

11 hours ago, Paragon said:

Yea, I wonder if Gloria was ever that strong- even off the Carolinas.  It never even looked like a 130 mph hurricane.

 

As far as Sandy is concerned, center island and eastern LI didn't get the worst of it- it was more of a NJ coast/NYC/western LI storm.  The only thing missing were the excessive heavy rains that south Jersey got.  I would have loved to get those rains and give back some of the surge lol.

it's almost always one or the other when TC's get up to this latitude. the rain shifts to the left of the track

[Juliancolton]

15 hours ago, Paragon said:

Yea, I wonder if Gloria was ever that strong- even off the Carolinas.  It never even looked like a 130 mph hurricane.

 

As far as Sandy is concerned, center island and eastern LI didn't get the worst of it- it was more of a NJ coast/NYC/western LI storm.  The only thing missing were the excessive heavy rains that south Jersey got.  I would have loved to get those rains and give back some of the surge lol.

Gloria had almost constant recon coverage right up until LI landfall so it seems unlikely the intensity estimates are way off base.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

49 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Gloria had almost constant recon coverage right up until LI landfall so it seems unlikely the intensity estimates are way off base.

I think most likely rapidly weakened as it hit the north wall of the Gulf Stream. It was a pure tropical system at landfall on LI. 

[jm1220]

17 hours ago, Paragon said:

Sandy's surge was 10 feet I think? Size of the storm is a major component of surge, one of the reasons I have major issues with the SS scale.  Merely accounting for wind speed isn't enough.

Here the surge plus the astronomical tide was 10-11 feet. The surge component was 7-8 feet. Had the surge happened at low tide, the total storm tide would've only been 5 feet or so (surge minus the astronomical tide). Sandy's worst impact happening during the full moon and high tide was devastating. Gloria's worst hit at low tide, so much less flooding. 

[jm1220]

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 Your missing the whole point. It's that very intense core that leads to the highest surge. 38 had surge heights between 15-20' just east of the center. At the time there wasn't much to destroy out on eastern Long Island. Even still parts of fire island were wiped clean. Similar to what occurred in Mississippi in Katrina and Texas during Ike. That type of surge 50 miles west is incomprehensible. It doesn't matter if the surge only lasts an hour. That's going to cause 90% of monetary damages.

The high surge here came in significant part from the large storm pushing so much water, the worst case track, and the funneling effect in NY Harbor. If it tracked like a normal south-north storm, NYC would've seen much reduced surge. The easterly fetch was devastating. 

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Gloria had almost constant recon coverage right up until LI landfall so it seems unlikely the intensity estimates are way off base.

The NHC advisory as it was just east of AC had the storm at 130 mph and landfall on LI at 115 mph.   

 

Since then those numbers have been taken way down.

 

 

[MJO812]

We should have a GTG

[Paragon]

10 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Gloria had almost constant recon coverage right up until LI landfall so it seems unlikely the intensity estimates are way off base.

They reduced it down to Cat 1 by the time it got to Long Island.  It's extremely difficult to imagine a near Cat 4 weaken down to Cat 1 in that short a distance, especially with a storm moving northward that quickly (60-70 mph).

[Paragon]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

The NHC advisory as it was just east of AC had the storm at 130 mph and landfall on LI at 115 mph.   

 

Since then those numbers have been taken way down.

 

 

East of ACY that storm was at best a Cat 2.  Don't know where they got those 130 figures from.

 

I'll venture to guess that Bob was stronger east of ACY than Gloria was, it was just shunted a bit too far to the East.

Bob also maintained its intensity further north better- a function of a historically hot summer (1991) and it occurring in August?

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The high surge here came in significant part from the large storm pushing so much water, the worst case track, and the funneling effect in NY Harbor. If it tracked like a normal south-north storm, NYC would've seen much reduced surge. The easterly fetch was devastating. 

I respectfully feel that people who think that a "true" tropical system hitting NYC could cause more damage than Sandy caused are not correct.  First of all a "true" tropical system would be much smaller and size is an important component of surge.  Secondly, exactly how would such a storm hit NYC directly?  It couldn't because NYC has land on three sides.  The closest it could come would be a 1893 scenario where it would hit the eastern parts of the city.  I wonder if such a scenario would challenge the kind of damage we saw from Sandy, simply because Sandy was so huge.

The other scenario is a storm curving into the Jersey shore- but we already saw that with Sandy.  Sure, we could have a "pure" tropical system do that but it would have to do that further north for the peak winds to get up here, because of its smaller size and I still don't know if such a system would have a surge as bad as what Sandy had.  And up here, tropical systems have less rainfall on the eastern side anyway.  Remember, Sandy was close to Cat 2 off the coast of ACY before it stalled for a bit and then made landfall as a hybrid (but right in time for high tide for us.)  The only thing I missed from that storm was the excessive rainfall that happened in South Jersey.

 

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Here the surge plus the astronomical tide was 10-11 feet. The surge component was 7-8 feet. Had the surge happened at low tide, the total storm tide would've only been 5 feet or so (surge minus the astronomical tide). Sandy's worst impact happening during the full moon and high tide was devastating. Gloria's worst hit at low tide, so much less flooding. 

Thanks- where were the winds and the surge the highest?

[Paragon]

14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it's almost always one or the other when TC's get up to this latitude. the rain shifts to the left of the track

yes you're absolutely correct- and this is when I get into arguments with people when I say the west side of the storm is where the action is (unless you're at the beach.)  On Gloria's track, the heaviest rainfall was over NYC.  On Bob's track it was actually over Nassau County.  Remember Floyd (1999)?  Tracked right over Jones Beach yet the heaviest rains were over inland NJ and even NE PA (Scranton got 10")

[Paragon]

On 4/3/2017 at 1:40 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 Your missing the whole point. It's that very intense core that leads to the highest surge. 38 had surge heights between 15-20' just east of the center. At the time there wasn't much to destroy out on eastern Long Island. Even still parts of fire island were wiped clean. Similar to what occurred in Mississippi in Katrina and Texas during Ike. That type of surge 50 miles west is incomprehensible. It doesn't matter if the surge only lasts an hour. That's going to cause 90% of monetary damages.

Unfortunately (or fortunately) I think that that the geometry of the NY coastline would prevent such a scenario from occurring this far to the west (NYC).  Just east of the center means the storm would basically have to skim the coast for the eastern parts of the city to get that a place like Manhattan could never get that because it's tucked in- the storm would weaken significantly.  You would need a track bending back into NJ and even then you're better off with a hybrid system with a large circulation.

The eastern shores of NJ basically jut out almost to just under Coney Island.  A storm that close to shore is going to weaken (like Irene.)  Even one moving quickly.

 

[bluewave]

Great long term record of spring coming earlier to places like Kyoto, Japan.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericsteig/status/848656113201315840