Spring Banter Thread

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Excluding on the beach itself the effects from Sandy would have been the same with or without the project. Right on the beach the surge was enhanced by wave run-up. But on most of the rest of the island the effective surge height would have been similar coming out of the bay. As blue wave said, the only o prevent the bayside flooding is with flood gates at the inlets. Similar to providence, London and Venice. Eventually they will be absolutely nessesary. Getting them paid for now is impossible as they would have to be installed at every Inlet from rockaway inlet to morriches . 

The striking difference was the extensive damage to the Lido Towers condos from surge and wave action which had no dune protection. A few blocks to the east in the Lido Dunes neighborhood I believe several the houses closest to the back of the dunes escaped flooding except in the street and front lawns. The ocean side of the barrier island has a higher elevation than the bayside. I guess those billion dollar tidal gate systems will eventually get built once flood damage repairs begin to regularly begin to exceed the cost of building of the tidal gates. 

[forkyfork]

i hope we get a 1938 hurricane shifted 50 miles to the west

[Paragon]

46 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i hope we get a 1938 hurricane shifted 50 miles to the west

Where would that make landfall? Wouldn't it be weaker because of interaction with land?

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

Wow, I thought this project was a fairly recent proposal. I bet many regret opposing it back then. So many homes being lifted now, and very few trees remaining. I just hope it doesn't make the trek through Long Beach anymore tedious than it already is.

Back in February(?) I had to drive through as much as 2 feet of Jamaica Bay water in Inwood and Far Rockaway after a run-of-the-mill storm, it's probably the same story by the bay in Long Beach.

Well after yesterday's storm there's about a foot of water in Rosedale.

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think this was the first time since 1899-1900 that the winter and March average temperatures were so close in NYC.

DJF...1899-1900...33.4....Mar...33.5

DJF...2016-2017...39.3....Mar...39.2

How close did March get to being the coldest and snowiest out of DJFM?

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

How close did March get to being the coldest and snowiest out of DJFM?

 

Much better quality snow events here near the coast in January and February. January was a little colder than March. If we had a -AO here in March, then it could have been the coldest and snowiest for us. 

[uncle W]

the best hurricane seasons for NYC were 1893 and 1954...1960 was a close third...The famous Hogs Island almost disappeared after the 1893 direct hit on the eastern part of Queens in August 1893...

[LIWeatherGuy29]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i hope we get a 1938 hurricane shifted 50 miles to the west

The hurricane of September 1821 was estimated to have been a category 4 when it made landfall at Cape May New Jersey and a category 3 when it made a direct hit on New York City. It caused an incredible amount of damage there. The 1821 hurricane was probably the equivalent of the 1938 hurricane but a lot further west. Maybe someone could post a link to the newspaper articles from that time. About 10 years ago I found the newspaper articles from that time and it was definitely interesting reading through the type of damage the hurricane caused. 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

The hurricane of September 1821 was estimated to have been a category 4 when it made landfall at Cape May New Jersey and a category 3 when it made a direct hit on New York City. It caused an incredible amount of damage there. The 1821 hurricane was probably the equivalent of the 1938 hurricane but a lot further west. Maybe someone could post a link to the newspaper articles from that time. About 10 years ago I found the newspaper articles from that time and it was definitely interesting reading through the type of damage the hurricane caused. 

The area was fortunate that the 1821 hurricane struck right at low tide. Nature published the paper below comparing historic tide levels and surges for NY Harbor.

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep07366

[WeatherFeen2000]

Anymore snow on the horizon? 

[Paragon]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Much better quality snow events here near the coast in January and February. January was a little colder than March. If we had a -AO here in March, then it could have been the coldest and snowiest for us. 

Do you rank January's a little higher than February's too?  Slightly more snow and also more sustained cold after the storm passed.  I had icicles that were five feet long hanging from my gutters lol.

Both were double digit snowfalls here.  Can't consider a winter with two double digit snowfalls a bad winter.

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The area was fortunate that the 1821 hurricane struck right at low tide. Nature published the paper below comparing historic tide levels and surges for NY Harbor.

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep07366

Was it really as strong as they said it was?  It seemed to be too close to the coast.  Irene took a similar track and look how much it weakened.

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The area was fortunate that the 1821 hurricane struck right at low tide. Nature published the paper below comparing historic tide levels and surges for NY Harbor.

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep07366

Gloria should have had more effects with that track than it did.  Compare Gloria to Donna- Donna took a further east track and yet had a higher surge?  I guess Gloria weakened too rapidly- at one point we thought a Cat 4 was going to hit us.  It supposedly had 135 mph winds at the latitude of ACY?

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The area was fortunate that the 1821 hurricane struck right at low tide. Nature published the paper below comparing historic tide levels and surges for NY Harbor.

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep07366

I think the forecasters have calculated that the maximum potential hurricane that can strike our area would be a Cat 4 145 mph.

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Anymore snow on the horizon? 

I hate to say it Feen, but we're done.  Temps look pretty seasonable, and there's two chances for big rain next week.

[LIWeatherGuy29]

3 hours ago, Paragon said:

Was it really as strong as they said it was?  It seemed to be too close to the coast.  Irene took a similar track and look how much it weakened.

Yes, is caused a lot of structural damage. Maybe it maintained it's strength the same way hazel did. I found some of the original newspaper articles of the hurricane for New York City.

Links are here:

New-York evening post., September 04, 1821, Page 2, Image 2 

New-York evening post., September 05, 1821, Page 2, Image 2

 

[LIWeatherGuy29]

No one knows how common the 1821 hurricane occurs. It could be a 200 year storm or 500 year storm or more. 6 years earlier in 1815 a hurricane makes landfall in Suffolk County with a track and intensity very similar to the 1938 hurricane as noted by David Ludlum. A category 3 hurricane making landfall in the center of long Island is probably more likely to occur than a category 3 directly over New York City or Nassau County.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 hours ago, Paragon said:

Where would that make landfall? Wouldn't it be weaker because of interaction with land?

It came NNW at the very end of the track so it was over the Gulf Stream most of its life up here. The same storm 50 miles west is the ultimate disaster scenario. 

[tdp146]

1 hour ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

No one knows how common the 1821 hurricane occurs. It could be a 200 year storm or 500 year storm or more. 6 years earlier in 1815 a hurricane makes landfall in Suffolk County with a track and intensity very similar to the 1938 hurricane as noted by David Ludlum. A category 3 hurricane making landfall in the center of long Island is probably more likely to occur than a category 3 directly over New York City or Nassau County.

I'm assuming you have David Ludlum's book on early American hurricanes? Great encyclopedia of hurricane history for the US. 

[LIWeatherGuy29]

3 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

I'm assuming you have David Ludlum's book on early American hurricanes? Great encyclopedia of hurricane history for the US. 

Yep, and his other works too.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Paragon said:

Gloria should have had more effects with that track than it did.  Compare Gloria to Donna- Donna took a further east track and yet had a higher surge?  I guess Gloria weakened too rapidly- at one point we thought a Cat 4 was going to hit us.  It supposedly had 135 mph winds at the latitude of ACY?

Gloria had an 7-8 foot surge near LB to Western Fire Island.  But the hurricane arrived at low tide so the tide level  made it about as high as the 92 noreaster and Irene. Had Gloria struck at high tide, the tide level would have probably been about 2 feet lower than Sandy.

[WeatherFeen2000]

15 hours ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

The hurricane of September 1821 was estimated to have been a category 4 when it made landfall at Cape May New Jersey and a category 3 when it made a direct hit on New York City. It caused an incredible amount of damage there. The 1821 hurricane was probably the equivalent of the 1938 hurricane but a lot further west. Maybe someone could post a link to the newspaper articles from that time. About 10 years ago I found the newspaper articles from that time and it was definitely interesting reading through the type of damage the hurricane caused. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane

&

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/02/the-freak-hurricane-of-1821-and-why-it-should-worry-every-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-coastal-resident/

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Gloria had an 7-8 foot surge near LB to Western Fire Island.  But the hurricane arrived at low tide so the tide level  made it about as high as the 92 noreaster and Irene. Had Gloria struck at high tide, the tide level would have probably been about 2 feet lower than Sandy.

I remember seeing on the some old weather channel footage the surge was expected to be 10-15'! That would have surpassed Sandy for western LI. Even still 7' is what I had during Sandy in wantagh so Gloria at high tide would have been similar at least were I am. 

[snowman19]

Getting the feeling that this is going to be an extremely humid summer unfortunately. Heavy spring rains, high soil moisture, tends to create a positive feedback loop, through evaporation, etc. I don't think it's going to be as hot as last summer but the humidity will make up for it. Probably above normal for temps but not like the previous summer. I hope I'm wrong...

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Getting the feeling that this is going to be an extremely humid summer unfortunately. Heavy spring rains, high soil moisture, tends to create a positive feedback loop, through evaporation, etc. I don't think it's going to be as hot as last summer but the humidity will make up for it. Probably above normal for temps but not like the previous summer. I hope I'm wrong...

I'd take that if we can get more storm activity rather than hot and dry

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'd take that if we can get more storm activity rather than hot and dry

I hope he's right too!! The summer droughts the last few years have been brutal on the island. Killing trees and making any new landscaping a challenge. Plus who here doesn't love thunderstorms!!

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I remember seeing on the some old weather channel footage the surge was expected to be 10-15'! That would have surpassed Sandy for western LI. Even still 7' is what I had during Sandy in wantagh so Gloria at high tide would have been similar at least were I am. 

Gloria was my top weather event of the 1980's.

1)...Hurricane Gloria

2)...Feb 83 blizzard

3). Apr 82 blizzard

4) Jan 87 surprise snowstorm

5) Jan 85 Arctic outbreak 

6) Christmas 80 Arctic outbreak

7) Spring 83 flooding

8) March 84 Nor'Easter

9) Dec 89 cold

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Gloria was my top weather event of the 1980's.

1)...Hurricane Gloria

2)...Feb 83 blizzard

3). Apr 82 blizzard

4) Jan 87 surprise snowstorm

5) Jan 85 Arctic outbreak 

6) Christmas 80 Arctic outbreak

7) Spring 83 flooding

8) March 84 Nor'Easter

9) Dec 89 cold

What was Gloria like wind wise on the island? I have always heard that the strongest winds in nassua came with the backend out of the west. I was only 3 and we evacuated to my grandmas in forest hills. I vaguely remember the large Norway maple in front of our house in wantagh loosing its top and taking out the wires for the block. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What was Gloria like wind wise on the island? I have always heard that the strongest winds in nassua came with the backend out of the west. I was only 3 and we evacuated to my grandmas in forest hills. I vaguely remember the large Norway maple in front of our house in wantagh loosing its top and taking out the wires for the block. 

The core of the strongest winds were from SE Nassau out into Suffolk. That was the fastest pressure falls that I ever experienced right before the eye raced through my location. It was the only time that I got to see the needle moving in real time on my home barometer. Had friends in the Massapequa area that were without power for about a week from all the downed trees and power lines. Seems like most of the wind damage near and east of the eye occurred in about a 15-20 minute period before the eye crossed the coast.

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The core of the strongest winds were from SE Nassau out into Suffolk. That was the fastest pressure falls that I ever experienced right before the eye raced through my location. It was the only time that I got to see the needle moving in real time on my home barometer. Had friends in the Massapequa area that were without power for about a week from all the downed trees and power lines. Seems like most of the wind damage near and east of the eye occurred in about a 15-20 minute period before the eye crossed the coast.

I remember that too and lived in that SE Nassau area.  The NYC based local news talked about it like it was a bust (remember News 12 wasn't born just yet), and many Long Islanders did too if they were north of Route 24, but for those of us in it (and bad as Massapequa between Sunrise and the Southern State may have been, it was nothing compared to south of Merrick) it brought sustained winds I still have never seen since.  Also, when I saw Tobay beach the next Spring I could not believe how much of the beach was gone.