forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: The guy from The Price is Right? this guy http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 and his site includes the actual formula for the kuchera ratio. it's just a temperature equation. no consideration is paid to temps in the level where snow is being produced http://www.wxcaster.com/gfssnow.txt Contact: Evan Kuchera 0.5 degree isobaric GFS GRIB data from NCEP. The snowfall accumulation algorithm used on these charts is as follows: 1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP) 2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP) 3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP) The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ryan maue purposely coded the maps to show sleet as snow so he'd get more money from dumb snow weenies. full stop. Wx bell maps in general strongly favor form over function. For how showy and colorful they are, the upper air charts are so hard to read to the point of near uselessness. It's sort of a shame... Maue has a lot of useful products and graphics, but they desperately need to be simplified and de-weenied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Wow, you guys lost me at "hello" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I didn't realize Kuchera was so binary... everybody touts it as such an advanced algorithm. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 The Kuchera maps have never impressed me...at least as far as their accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I might quit wx forums if we're now going to toss the Euro products in favor the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 33 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: The Kuchera maps have never impressed me...at least as far as their accuracy they were terrible in the 2/9/17 event-had places getting 20-25 inches when 15 was reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: I might quit wx forums if we're now going to toss the Euro products in favor the NAM. Stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: I might quit wx forums if we're now going to toss the Euro products in favor the NAM. La la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, Rjay said: I might quit wx forums if we're now going to toss the Euro products in favor the NAM. Flavor of the day...Whatever shows more snow is the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: I might quit wx forums if we're now going to toss the Euro products in favor the NAM. Besides its easier to just skim twitter and steal...err, regurgitate ideas and post them here. Give it a whirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Besides its easier to just skim twitter and steal...err, regurgitate ideas and post them here. Give it a whirl. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 It's not just the Euro that those incorrect snowfall maps are produced for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's not just the Euro that those incorrect snowfall maps are produced for. so this tweet trying to frame it as an ECMWF issue is a lie. shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Found a better picture of the 2014 Nor'easter Bomb that missed the CONUS off my computer. I made sure to save it once it was posted to Masters' blog a few years back. What a beaut. And here's another I just found off Google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, WaPo said: Found a better picture of the 2014 Nor'easter Bomb that missed the CONUS off my computer. I made sure to save it once it was posted to Masters' blog a few years back. What a beaut. And here's another I just found off Google. I think I shed a few tears over what could've been as I waved goodbye to its cirrus deck on the boardwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I think I shed a few tears over what could've been as I waved goodbye to its cirrus deck on the boardwalk. That one was a true heartbreaker. The indefatigable beast of a deform band a few days later that surprised me with 6" of fresh snow was a nice little consolation prize though. And it all came on the heels of one of my favorite tri-state winters of my life. No big snowstorm, but what felt like continuous arctic cold and SECS/MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Yeah, that one still stings, but it was a beautiful system. I was impressed by the dual commahead structure at the beginning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: The guy from The Price is Right? Yup, that's the one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 The key to figuring the Saturday "storm" out is going with the model that gives one the most snow. OBVIOUSLY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The key to figuring the Saturday "storm" out is going with the model that gives one the most snow. OBVIOUSLY.... I wouldn't be talking down to people. Get something right first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The key to figuring the Saturday "storm" out is going with the model that gives one the most snow. OBVIOUSLY.... You're literally the only person on this entire board looking to the weekend potential with anything beyond piqued interest. The overwhelming sentiment has been "this looks fickle, but we'll keep an eye on it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The key to figuring the Saturday "storm" out is going with the model that gives one the most snow. OBVIOUSLY.... So I'll put you down for 6-12" then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Hmmm 12k... 2"....... 4K....7" yea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: The key to figuring the Saturday "storm" out is going with the model that gives one the most snow. OBVIOUSLY.... And then raising the amount by the power of the number of inches shown. So 6" really means 6^6" = 46656". And where you see green on the map, that's the number of weenie tears being shed in a 1 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Question for you guys with encyclopedic historical knowledge. A friend of mine says he remembers an event in the mid-2000s that dropped 8" of sleet in Armonk. Anybody know which storm that might have been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Question for you guys with encyclopedic historical knowledge. A friend of mine says he remembers an event in the mid-2000s that dropped 8" of sleet in Armonk. Anybody know which storm that might have been? February 14, 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Yea Valentine's Day 2007 was a big ol' sleet storm along I-95 from DC on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 4 hours ago, Rjay said: I wouldn't be talking down to people. Get something right first. I can't wait to drink weenie tears come Saturday when there's no snow accumulation. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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