Spring Banter Thread

[winterwarlock]

I hope some of the condescending know it alls here who like to consider themselves experts in their own mind and have gained legions of weenies hanging on their words and posts take a step back and reflect and have some humility.  The dismissing of models not showing big amounts in favor of those which do is a constant around here. I get it. Everyone here likes snow I understand that HOWEVER the bias in trying to find ways it could snow or ways it could snow the most sort of clouds judgment to all the things that can go wrong...I think that is the issue here. The board is so pro snow that people ignore the bad and hype the good. I do not like that if anyone questions a forecast they are told they are a troll and know nothing.  Dismissing the GFS one day then using it the next. Dismissing a strong short term model like the NAM and RGEM which is a great model seems to be faulty judgment

 

As for Mt Holly...they need some serious reflection there...they were bo peep as late as 7AM and their write up at 4AM was pretty horrible not even talking about what was going. Rome was burning and they were hiding under the covers

[BxEngine]

Lol

[EasternLI]

At least I got the day off of work for a rainer, easy cleanup 

[mophstymeo01]

Same

And yet we'll all be right back at it with the next storm, whenever that might be.


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[NortheastPAWx]

When's the warmup back to our seasonal norms, at least?

[snow1]

3 minutes ago, mophstymeo01 said:

 

And yet we'll all be right back at it with the next storm, whenever that might be.


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 Nothing else on the horizon in the near future. 

[BombsAway1288]

13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I hope some of the condescending know it alls here who like to consider themselves experts in their own mind and have gained legions of weenies hanging on their words and posts take a step back and reflect and have some humility.  The dismissing of models not showing big amounts in favor of those which do is a constant around here. I get it. Everyone here likes snow I understand that HOWEVER the bias in trying to find ways it could snow or ways it could snow the most sort of clouds judgment to all the things that can go wrong...I think that is the issue here. The board is so pro snow that people ignore the bad and hype the good. I do not like that if anyone questions a forecast they are told they are a troll and know nothing.  Dismissing the GFS one day then using it the next. Dismissing a strong short term model like the NAM and RGEM which is a great model seems to be faulty judgment

 

As for Mt Holly...they need some serious reflection there...they were bo peep as late as 7AM and their write up at 4AM was pretty horrible not even talking about what was going. Rome was burning and they were hiding under the covers

I agree about the NWS offices. Should of pulled the plug last night when the writing was on the wall but you want humility like you have when you scream that every storm will bust low? Gimme a break 

[jm1220]

The 18z NAM and RGEM trending warmer at 18z yesterday was the sign to me that the front end down here would be a disappointment and there would mostly be slop. I thought it might be better north of Sunrise Highway but it looks to have gone to rain everywhere except the north shore. Warm air pushed north pretty far. At least the ground should be white here for a while since it's still cold enough that not much of the snow is melting and I had an above average snow winter. 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I agree about the NWS offices. Should of pulled the plug last night when the writing was on the wall but you want humility like you have when you scream that every storm will bust low? Gimme a break 

Most of them do bust low though. The times we busted high or reached expectations are exceptions. The busts are usually not that dramatic, but the dramatic ones are a regular feature....KU devote a whole chapter to near misses its quite interesting. Some of those misses were devastating ice storms, IMO the worst winter storms you can have. Nothing good about them. I remember a heavy snow warning in 2007 and nary a flake fell. And the same types of folks were arguing it was going to happen long after it was raining....

[BxEngine]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Most of them do bust low though. The times we busted high or reached expectations are exceptions. The busts are usually not that dramatic, but the dramatic ones are a regular feature....KU devote a whole chapter to near misses its quite interesting. Some of those misses were devastating ice storms, IMO the worst winter storms you can have. Nothing good about them. I remember a heavy snow warning in 2007 and nary a flake fell. And the same types of folks were arguing it was going to happen long after it was raining....

Most? Im not so sure about that.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 18z NAM and RGEM trending warmer at 18z yesterday was the sign to me that the front end down here would be a disappointment and there would mostly be slop. I thought it might be better north of Sunrise Highway but it looks to have gone to rain everywhere except the north shore. Warm air pushed north pretty far. At least the ground should be white here for a while since it's still cold enough that not much of the snow is melting and I had an above average snow winter. 

We had a bit better of a front end dump over here in CNJ and have between 4-8, plus enough heavy sleet to justify school closures. But not a state of emergency. And this won't get us up to average. We're just shy. 

[mophstymeo01]

 Nothing else on the horizon in the near future. 

I was really thinking about the tropical season or even next winter really. I doubt there's another snow chance this winter, but the weather has been so bizarre it'll probably snow in May.


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[mophstymeo01]

The 18z NAM and RGEM trending warmer at 18z yesterday was the sign to me that the front end down here would be a disappointment and there would mostly be slop. I thought it might be better north of Sunrise Highway but it looks to have gone to rain everywhere except the north shore. Warm air pushed north pretty far. At least the ground should be white here for a while since it's still cold enough that not much of the snow is melting and I had an above average snow winter. 

For me, it was the NAM. That model has had some serious mojo since last year's blizzard.


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[Stormlover74]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

We had a bit better of a front end dump over here in CNJ and have between 4-8, plus enough heavy sleet to justify school closures. But not a state of emergency. And this won't get us up to average. We're just shy. 

At least the whole state was affected in some way. We've had states of emergency issued in the past when only south jersey was getting it

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Most? Im not so sure about that.

Well that probably should read that most don't get to the high end potential. When forecast 8-12 I am likely to get closer to 8. So yeah that really isn't a bust.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, mophstymeo01 said:

 

For me, it was the NAM. That model has had some serious mojo since last year's blizzard.


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It still seriously blew this event though. NYC and most of north queens may get 8-10 inches of snow and sleet.  It more or less had nothing 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, mophstymeo01 said:

 

For me, it was the NAM. That model has had some serious mojo since last year's blizzard.


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And there was no last minute jog east or correction. They kept ticking west each run. At the end of the day many of us managed to stay all frozen so I'm not sure how much was the track of the low or the upper level lows since there was the warm tongue that only the nam and rgem caught

[mophstymeo01]

It still seriously blew this event though. NYC and most of north queens may get 8-10 inches of snow and sleet.  It more or less had nothing 

Nobody's perfect. In the end, I got a day off but the snow weenie in me is sorely disappointed. It's now driving rain in western Nassau.


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[jm1220]

We all win if the low tucks in west they said...

It'll be fine they said....

[Santa Claus]

Hard for me to see where the NWS went wrong here, they played conservatively as is their responsibility as a public service.  The storm's power is evident by the heavy precipitation and winds, really one of the most impressive convective winter events you could ask for.  You have to thread the needle with temperatures at all levels to get a widespread metro blizzard in March.  A cheap 30 mile swing of the center and things are very different for everyone.  And for public safety purposes there's just not much difference between the mega snow totals and solid snow plus this sleet storm.  It's really nasty and dangerous out there.

[MJO812]

Twitter is blowing up with people frustrated

 

Here is one tweet

 

" A meteorologist is the only job where you can grossly be incorrect or lie and still keep your job. I chose the wrong career "

 

Some people are ruthless

[Santa Claus]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Twitter is blowing up with people frustrated

 

Here is one tweet

 

" A meteorologist is the only job where you can grossly be incorrect or lie and still keep your job. I chose the wrong career "

 

Some people are ruthless

These people are completely ignorant, who cares?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Hard for me to see where the NWS went wrong here, they played conservatively as is their responsibility as a public service.  The storm's power is evident by the heavy precipitation and winds, really one of the most impressive convective winter events you could ask for.  You have to thread the needle with temperatures at all levels to get a widespread metro blizzard in March.  A cheap 30 mile swing of the center and things are very different for everyone.  And for public safety purposes there's just not much difference between the mega snow totals and solid snow plus this sleet storm.  It's really nasty and dangerous out there.

The bigger issue was yesterday many of us noticed how they weren't even considering the warmer models, at least not in their forecasts. No mixing was even mentioned anywhere outside of south Jersey and LI. Even the forecast for me that was put out at 4:55 this morning didn't mention sleet at all and I flipped like an hour later. I understanding not changing with every model run but it seemed like we all knew mixing was going to occur at least up to I78. I feel like in the past they were never this bullish. Usually starting low, sometimes too low and increasing later on. Now they go all in with the max amounts

[Santa Claus]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

The bigger issue was yesterday many of us noticed how they weren't even considering the warmer models, at least not in their forecasts. No mixing was even mentioned anywhere outside of south Jersey and LI. Even the forecast for me that was put out at 4:55 this morning didn't mention sleet at all and I flipped like an hour later. I understanding not changing with every model run but it seemed like we all knew mixing was going to occur at least up to I78. I feel like in the past they were never this bullish. Usually starting low, sometimes too low and increasing later on. Now they go all in with the max amounts

That should be the forum's slogan.

[mophstymeo01]

Twitter is blowing up with people frustrated

 

Here is one tweet

 

" A meteorologist is the only job where you can grossly be incorrect or lie and still keep your job. I chose the wrong career "

 

Some people are ruthless

Part of the problem is that people take one model run or one snowfall map and treat it like Gospel truth.

Part of the problem is that people are only peripherally interested in the weather, so when the real experts -- not the Twitsperts -- get it wrong, they have no real desire to know why or how it happened.

Part of the problem is that any yutz with a mobile device can disseminate information and because social media tends to create an echo chamber, people tend not to consume differing ideas. Then, when the bust happens, they wonder, "What gives?"

I could go on, but I think I'd be preaching to the choir.

It's not the mets' faults, but try telling that to angry people/parents who lost a day of work.


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[winterwarlock]

11 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Hard for me to see where the NWS went wrong here, they played conservatively as is their responsibility as a public service.  The storm's power is evident by the heavy precipitation and winds, really one of the most impressive convective winter events you could ask for.  You have to thread the needle with temperatures at all levels to get a widespread metro blizzard in March.  A cheap 30 mile swing of the center and things are very different for everyone.  And for public safety purposes there's just not much difference between the mega snow totals and solid snow plus this sleet storm.  It's really nasty and dangerous out there.

 

 

Mt Holly has me 18-24 at 7AM and I got 4.5 tops, they didnt put out a statement of anything, a very undetailed 4AM update that didnt talk about sleet

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Twitter is blowing up with people frustrated

 

Here is one tweet

 

" A meteorologist is the only job where you can grossly be incorrect or lie and still keep your job. I chose the wrong career "

 

Some people are ruthless

I hear that one a lot and it is a bit unfair; you can make the same argument against physicians, they miss things but when do they ever say forget about the bill? 

[Santa Claus]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

 

 

Mt Holly has me 18-24 at 7AM and I got 4.5 tops, they didnt put out a statement of anything, a very undetailed 4AM update that didnt talk about sleet

And if you saw "5 inches of snow and 3 inches of frozen trash" at 7 AM you'd be driving to work?

The important forecasts were early evening yesterday as far as civil logistics, then they let a dynamic event play out.  And again what is the sensible impact of what you are complaining about?

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I'm not sure if you realize how close this was to getting it done. If this ended up being just not quite as amped up, or the upper air pattern is just a shade further east we end up buried. As it is, I'm slightly above seasonal average for snow here. If you were to show me the map below before the season and ask me what kind of snow totals we would end up with, I would take the way way under.

 

I think Long Island would have been, but more developed areas like the city have a lot going against them for late season snowstorms,

They didn't even get that much (4") in April 2003, when we on the south shore got 8".

As far as the above map, it's our new era of climate, with mild winters and the cold one or two days we do get in the middle of winter are good enough to get us bombing snowstorms  however it also means a narrower window of opportunity and a shorter season in general.

2014-15 was the exception of course.

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I hear that one a lot and it is a bit unfair; you can make the same argument against physicians, they miss things but when do they ever say forget about the bill? 

well you can sue them lol