snywx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This could have been the one. I lost so much sleep tracking this. The pattern did look great for a big snowstorm for the coast. Shame. It is the one!!! But for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, snywx said: It is the one!!! But for the interior Maybe he'll finally realize how things work in March lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Maybe he'll finally realize how things work in March lmao. lol... It truly is impressive how the NAM handled this event. I know many discounted it from jump but gotta give credit where credit is due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, snywx said: lol... It truly is impressive how the NAM handled this event. I know many discounted it from jump but gotta give credit where credit is due NAM must be taken seriously, especially after its successes the last two years, did they give it an update and forget to tell us lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: Maybe he'll finally realize how things work in March lmao. Climatology doesn't matter if you have a favorable pattern in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Climatology doesn't matter if you have a favorable pattern in place It's about a lot of things that make March not ideal- think of 06-07. You need the winter as a whole to be really cold to pull off a big March snow anymore near the coast- like 14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Every year my wife asks wtf a jebwalk is. And every year her look seems more "wtf did i marry" instead of "oh youre weird". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The nam killed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Climatology doesn't matter if you have a favorable pattern in place Very true. We just don't get really favorable patterns in March as a rule. Something always screws up what looks like a good snow storm. And in ways you don't always expect; like suppression to the Mid Atlantic in March 2014, or more commonly a warm nose, or a switch to SE winds. If it ain't one thing its another. i will say this, had they not been honking a huge blizzard, this would have still have been too nasty to do much in. It's evil out there. And I am piling up some impressive sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Very true. We just don't get really favorable patterns in March as a rule. Something always screws up what looks like a good snow storm. And in ways you don't always expect; like suppression to the Mid Atlantic in March 2014, or more commonly a warm nose, or a switch to SE winds. If it ain't one thing its another. i will say this, had they not been honking a huge blizzard, this would have still have been too nasty to do much in. It's evil out there. And I am piling up some impressive sleet. It reminds me very much of 2006-07, the winter was also very similar in that it was mild. I don't think you can expect anything big in March anymore near the coast unless the winter as a whole has already been a cold one- like 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: Very true. We just don't get really favorable patterns in March as a rule. Something always screws up what looks like a good snow storm. And in ways you don't always expect; like suppression to the Mid Atlantic in March 2014, or more commonly a warm nose, or a switch to SE winds. If it ain't one thing its another. i will say this, had they not been honking a huge blizzard, this would have still have been too nasty to do much in. It's evil out there. And I am piling up some impressive sleet. In the last thirty minutes, it's been sleeting like it's 1994 at MMU. Speaking of impressive, SN+ in the daylight hours, followed by heavy, wind-driven sleet, coupled with impassable roads... that's pretty amazing for mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Can this winter end soon please? I'm ready for spring now. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: It reminds me very much of 2006-07, the winter was also very similar in that it was mild. I don't think you can expect anything big in March anymore near the coast unless the winter as a whole has already been a cold one- like 2014-15. Yup. Would have been happy with anything this year, but darn did they leave me at the altar with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Lmao Cuomo just said Sandy wasn't that serious in NYC........ what?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This is just like 1993 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: It's about a lot of things that make March not ideal- think of 06-07. You need the winter as a whole to be really cold to pull off a big March snow anymore near the coast- like 14-15 I'm not sure if you realize how close this was to getting it done. If this ended up being just not quite as amped up, or the upper air pattern is just a shade further east we end up buried. As it is, I'm slightly above seasonal average for snow here. If you were to show me the map below before the season and ask me what kind of snow totals we would end up with, I would take the way way under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: and it's never gonna happen lol. You know how our winters and cold season have narrowed down to DJF (with the notable exception of 2015 of course.) I have a strong feeling that even if this storm had taken the "ideal" track for NYC it still would have found a way to bust somehow. It's tough to go against the NW trend on our storms last few years. We just need them to start out far enough SE so when they come back it they don't hug the coast like today. The lack of blocking over the AO and NAO regions also gave this the green light to keep coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's tough to go against the NW trend on our storms last few years. We just need it to start out far enough SE so when it comes back it doesn't hug the coast like today. The lack of blocking over the AO and NAO regions also gave this the green light to keep coming west. We just can't get the big ones here without good blocking can we.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: We just can't get the big ones here without good blocking can we.... We just need stronger blocking on the Pacific side like there was for January 2015 to compensate for the lack of Atlantic blocking. March has a long history of throwing the models curveballs as transition months can be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Well I am enjoying "tropical storm" Stella... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 38 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Lmao Cuomo just said Sandy wasn't that serious in NYC........ what?????? After that, he said that it was serious lol 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's tough to go against the NW trend on our storms last few years. We just need them to start out far enough SE so when they come back it they don't hug the coast like today. The lack of blocking over the AO and NAO regions also gave this the green light to keep coming west. This was forecasted to drop negative. That's why many people were excited about a big snowstorm in NYC. AO never went negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: We just can't get the big ones here without good blocking can we.... So how much blocking do you need to move the storm 30 miles south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: After that, he said that it was serious lol This was forecasted to drop negative. That's why many people were excited about a big snowstorm in NYC. AO never went negative With the exception of the blizzard last January, the AO has been a huge disappointment after March 2013. Luckily, the Pacific has been there to pick up the slack. But in situations like this during March, a -AO would have been helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I just realized I have a good shot at winning my guessing game thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 It would figure that after seeing NEPA get the shaft and NYC get all the HECS storms...I move to NYC and now NEPA gets the HECS while NYC gets the shaft. Convinced I'll never see another 12"+ storm again. (I'm only half-joking.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: It would figure that after seeing NEPA get the shaft and NYC get all the HECS storms...I move to NYC and now NEPA gets the HECS while NYC gets the shaft. Convinced I'll never see another 12"+ storm again. (I'm only half-joking.) You should still end with 8-10" if you're in the Bronx. Heck of a lot better than what I'll end with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: You should still end with 8-10" if you're in the Bronx. Heck of a lot better than what I'll end with. Not even close. We have like 5 or 6" of whatever this sh*t is (though may have lost some to compaction) and it's basically over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 To think I wasted a week of sleepless nights tracking this piece of crap. Epic bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 this really sucked on LI. i woke up at 5:30am and already heard the pinging of sleet. i never was able to go back to sleep again. BUT, we've been incredibly fortunate over the past 7 years or so with big snow storms, I can't actually remember one busting like this (to rain/sleet) since I was in high school. the busts are kind of entertaining in their own right. i'm happy for everyone who is getting crushed right now, especially anyone who missed out on last years big blizzard. i've never seen this much sleet before, though, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said: To think I wasted a week of sleepless nights tracking this piece of crap. Epic bust! Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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