Spring Banter Thread

[WeatherFeen2000]

  On 3/15/2017 at 12:40 AM, JetsPens87 said:

You're welcome

Another thing I should mention is that it's simply much easier for it to not snow than to snow on the coastal plain. Any warm layer no matter how shallow can simply ruin a storm on the coastal plain as we clearly saw across much of this sun forum today. And without any mechanism (phase into the northern stream) to overcome that warm layer the writing was on the wall when one looked at dual pol radar pretty much from the get go last night. Had he phase occurred at or before our latitude the storm absolutely would have been capable of overcoming that with dynamic cooling, but since there was no connection to an upper level cold source, we were just not able to work out that mid level warmth.

Expand  

So, if this storm was just a straight miller a from the gulf, and it had no other piece of moisture to phase with and rolled up the coast, NYC would have been all snow? And most likely even philly. I know what you're saying the phasing made it a bigger storm but it screwed us in the mid levels flooding it with warm advection air?

[JetsPens87]

  On 3/15/2017 at 12:36 AM, dmillz25 said:

Wow man that really sucks. Straight ratter of a winter for you.

Expand  

Yea it has been a brutal winter for snow lovers in this area. Nnj has been making out quite well relatively speaking as many of the borderline events just have not broken in our favor this year.

The memory of last years 30 incher are still very fresh in my mind and my immediate county made out extremely well with that storm as we were seemingly under any and every band that storm produced, even had a period of two to three hours of a very small local band basically only over my county that padded totals by another couple inches, so I'll take this winter for what it's worth and keep those memories fresh in my mind.

[JetsPens87]

  On 3/15/2017 at 12:44 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said:

So, if this storm was just a straight miller a from the gulf, and it had no other piece of moisture to phase with and rolled up the coast, NYC would have been all snow? And most likely even philly. I know what you're saying the phasing made it a bigger storm but it screwed us in the mid levels flooding it with warm advection air?

Expand  

Probably not what you're looking for but it'd honestly be hard to make that comparison because we couldn't take this situation and overlay it as a Miller A. Everything would play out differently and we probably could not even replicate the placement of mid and upper level features because those were a function of this setup and this setup alone.

[Stormlover74]

  On 3/15/2017 at 12:44 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said:

So, if this storm was just a straight miller a from the gulf, and it had no other piece of moisture to phase with and rolled up the coast, NYC would have been all snow? And most likely even philly. I know what you're saying the phasing made it a bigger storm but it screwed us in the mid levels flooding it with warm advection air?

Expand  

93 was a triple phaser Miller A and still turned to sleet and rain at the coast because of the track

 

[SnowGoose69]

  On 3/15/2017 at 12:54 AM, JetsPens87 said:

Probably not what you're looking for but it'd honestly be hard to make that comparison because we couldn't take this situation and overlay it as a Miller A. Everything would play out differently and we probably could not even replicate the placement of mid and upper level features because those were a function of this setup and this setup alone.

Expand  

Honestly the blizzard of 93 may have been the last Miller A to track west of Montauk abd east of Pennsylvania.  That track has more or less gone extinct.   That was the hardest part of answering the question to me.  We've seen that so rarely it's hard to know. 

[WeatherFeen2000]

  On 3/15/2017 at 12:54 AM, JetsPens87 said:

Probably not what you're looking for but it'd honestly be hard to make that comparison because we couldn't take this situation and overlay it as a Miller A. Everything would play out differently and we probably could not even replicate the placement of mid and upper level features because those were a function of this setup and this setup alone.

Expand  

Thank you, every storm is different. I appreciate it I'm a snow feen man can't get it out of my system! Weather in general but snowstorms are just life! If there's a place I would like to live it would be somewhere preferably that have 70-80 degree summers with no humidity and 300 inches of snow per year? Umm how's Valdez, AK? 

[JetsPens87]

  On 3/15/2017 at 1:02 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Honestly the blizzard of 93 may have been the last Miller A to track west of Montauk abd east of Pennsylvania.  That track has more or less gone extinct.   That was the hardest part of answering the question to me.  We've seen that so rarely it's hard to know. 

Expand  

Yea exactly it was a tough question for me to ponder, an interesting one nonetheless though. But like you said there simply isn't too much to go off of to compare to.

[WeatherFeen2000]

Maybe Marquette Michigan is a better choice. Almost 400 inches of snow per year and average summers only 3 days above 90, which is annoying I don't want no 80's but it's closer than Valdez.

im such a greedy snow feen. Lol take care fellas gotta eat dinner my wife is nagging!

[Stormlover74]

  On 3/15/2017 at 1:02 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Honestly the blizzard of 93 may have been the last Miller A to track west of Montauk abd east of Pennsylvania.  That track has more or less gone extinct.   That was the hardest part of answering the question to me.  We've seen that so rarely it's hard to know. 

Expand  

Dec 92. It took 24 hours to move from eastern VA to off the Delaware coast

 

 

[Rtd208]

As much as I love winter and snow I am ready to put this winter behind us. Bring on spring/summer 2017, I hope it is a hot and humid with plenty of chances for heavy rain and severe weather.

[Dan76]

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-74/centery:41/zoom:10  not a nice day for them

[SnowGoose69]

Evidently the Euro didn't really forecast 15 inches in NYC.  I was just told by someone the snow maps there include sleet to a minor extent still and many forecasters either forgot that or didn't know.  The correction supposedly yielded only about 2-6 inches of snow 

[dmillz25]

The struggle of walking through 20" of snow. This is my nephew up in Peekskill

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

  On 3/15/2017 at 2:11 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Evidently the Euro didn't really forecast 15 inches in NYC.  I was just told by someone the snow maps there include sleet to a minor extent still and many forecasters either forgot that or didn't know.  The correction supposedly yielded only about 2-6 inches of snow 

Expand  

And they measured 7.6 so it still got it wrong either way.

[RDRY]

  On 3/15/2017 at 2:11 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Evidently the Euro didn't really forecast 15 inches in NYC.  I was just told by someone the snow maps there include sleet to a minor extent still and many forecasters either forgot that or didn't know.  The correction supposedly yielded only about 2-6 inches of snow 

Expand  

Seems like a pretty big deal if true. This storm highlighted the issue of looking at surface precip panels on most of the models. Many of them matched almost exactly the non-dual pol radar returns (the Weather Channel app showed snow over Queens for hours when it was all sleet). There was also a previous minor coastal a couple years back when the models' precip panels exactly matched the actual storm. They showed light snow through the city northward by about 30 miles. They printed out about 4 inches, but dry air kept it flurries. Still much work to do to get these models to more accurately read the atmosphere.

I know that this is why we have pros - to extrapolate and not just regurgitate model output. But certain situations - like this one - are almost impossible, with the models contradicting each other right to the end.

[SnowBlitzkrieg]

  On 3/15/2017 at 2:11 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Evidently the Euro didn't really forecast 15 inches in NYC.  I was just told by someone the snow maps there include sleet to a minor extent still and many forecasters either forgot that or didn't know.  The correction supposedly yielded only about 2-6 inches of snow

Expand  

are you talking about the 12z run yesterday? I pointed this out in the storm thread at the time, the Kuchera map was only showing about 2-6" but I was shut down and told it was wrong and that the 10:1 maps that showed 13-15 were more accurate.

[Enigma]

The RGEM has a product that breaks down amounts by snow, sleet/ice pellets, and rain. I recall seeing it several times for this system and I know we used to post it often. I will say it again, SREF's were spot on for two days. Many folks use the plumes. I only use the snow % as it does a great job with thermals. 

[EasternLI]

One eye open for the weekend?

[bluewave]

Here's the scoop on the Euro P-types. I noticed sleet in the Euro soundings a day before the storm. But the further west track sped up the changeover to sleet cutting down snow amounts.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/841831646886301696/photo/1

ECMWF model has more p-types than the NCEP GFS or WRFs. Freezing rain, Ice Pellets (sleet), snow + wet snow, Rain, Mix or sloppic.twitter.com/ZaWrV82Erx

However, as it now appears, snowfall variable that is included in ECMWF variable lineup does NOT discriminate b/t snow, mixed, and sleet.

[ag3]

  On 3/15/2017 at 2:49 AM, RDRY said:

Seems like a pretty big deal if true. This storm highlighted the issue of looking at surface precip panels on most of the models. Many of them matched almost exactly the non-dual pol radar returns (the Weather Channel app showed snow over Queens for hours when it was all sleet). There was also a previous minor coastal a couple years back when the models' precip panels exactly matched the actual storm. They showed light snow through the city northward by about 30 miles. They printed out about 4 inches, but dry air kept it flurries. Still much work to do to get these models to more accurately read the atmosphere.

I know that this is why we have pros - to extrapolate and not just regurgitate model output. But certain situations - like this one - are almost impossible, with the models contradicting each other right to the end.

Expand  

I had 5" of pure snow in Whitestone and then 2.5" of snow/sleet. Only went to pure sleet briefly. There were small flakes mixed in almost the entire time when it was mixing.

[Brasiluvsnow]

  On 3/15/2017 at 10:52 AM, EasternLI said:

One eye open for the weekend?

Expand  

was wondering this myself ?

[RDRY]

  On 3/15/2017 at 12:44 PM, ag3 said:

I had 5" of pure snow in Whitestone and then 2.5" of snow/sleet. Only went to pure sleet briefly. There were small flakes mixed in almost the entire time when it was mixing.

Expand  

Virtually all sleet in Maspeth from 6:50 AM onward - just some occasional giant flakes mixed in.

[jm1220]

  On 3/15/2017 at 2:49 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And they measured 7.6 so it still got it wrong either way.

Expand  

The 7.6 included tons of sleet. Sleet is measured the same way as snow. 

[bluewave]

  On 3/15/2017 at 2:31 PM, jm1220 said:

The 7.6 included tons of sleet. Sleet is measured the same way as snow. 

Expand  

This storm was one of the few in recent times which was just like what we used to see in the 70's through the 90's. Mixing gets to Long Beach and the South Shore a few hours early and the snowfall jackpot was interior instead of coast.

[jm1220]

  On 3/15/2017 at 2:37 PM, bluewave said:

This storm was one of the few in recent times which was just like what we used to see in the 70's through the 90's. Mixing gets to Long Beach and the South Shore a few hours early and the snowfall jackpot was interior instead of coast.

Expand  

Just between home and where I work in Queens it's clear there was a lot more here. The roads at home are clear while many up here are still snow packed. No liquid here while more than half the storm was rain at home. 

We were definitely overdue for a storm like this. It wasn't fun down on the coast but nothing you can do. Luckily the flooding didn't reach me like other parts of town. 

[bluewave]

  On 3/15/2017 at 2:58 PM, jm1220 said:

Just between home and where I work in Queens it's clear there was a lot more here. The roads at home are clear while many up here are still snow packed. No liquid here while more than half the storm was rain at home. 

We were definitely overdue for a storm like this. It wasn't fun down on the coast but nothing you can do. Luckily the flooding didn't reach me like other parts of town. 

Expand  

It looks like the massive Army Corps beach rebuilding project will begin this spring from what I have been hearing. There are going to be plenty of trucks hauling boulders in to rebuild the jetties. It will be interesting to watch the progress of the project the next few years.

[JerseyWx]

For being inland, I got a heck of a lot more sleet than expected.  There were times where it came down with the heavy snow, and at points it was the only thing falling.

[North and West of Town]

Not sure if I mentioned this yesterday, but this was kind of a throwback storm for me, reminding me of early 1990s storms from when I was a kid: major snows inland, mixing near me. The one difference was that it had some February 2014 feel to it in that we got a lot of SN+ followed by sleet. We haven't had wind driven sleet like we did yesterday in a while. Finished around a foot or so in MMU with lots of blowing and drifting. Crazy for mid-March.

 

Anyway, I'm ready to work on the yard and get back outside.

[gymengineer]

  On 3/15/2017 at 12:21 AM, FreeRain said:

 

WEATHER SERVICE DECIDED LAST MINUTE NOT TO CUT SNOW FORECAST

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_WINTER_WEATHER_FORECAST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-03-14-17-17-34

Expand  

I posted about this in the Mid-Atlantic forum. Kind of surprised there's not more discussion about this in this sub-forum. 

[jm1220]

  On 3/15/2017 at 10:52 AM, EasternLI said:

One eye open for the weekend?

Expand  

The trough is going to have to dig more for a redevelopment to occur far enough south. Looks now like a SNE special other than whatever snow we can get from initial overrunning.