AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I dont care what month it is. Most of the precip falls at night, and with those snow rates depicted, everything accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: HOLY SHI*T That's not even for the whole storm?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: HOLY CRAP Now THAT is stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: HOLY CRAP That's an insane jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Tonight's 00Z Ukie is slightly east and slightly weaker than at 12 Z. Still looks like a huge hit, though. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 33 minutes ago, eurojosh said: By the time it gets there, CMC crosses Montauk with a 977mb storm. Talk about rapid intensification. Wonder if CMC is able to stay all snow for us because of that deepening, rather than its actually track. And this is what I was talking about earlier today. Get this thing into an amped up qpf bomb and thermals will likely work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's an insane jump from the naked eye looks like about 1.5" for DC. Disappointment compared to CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: And this is what I was talking about earlier today. Get this thing into an amped up qpf bomb and thermals will likely work out. I showed a GIF earlier that was ignored. CMC drops from 1000mb to 984mb in 6hrs. That maybe causing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: from the naked eye looks like about 1.5" for DC. Disappointment compared to CMC and GFS That's just one panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: from the naked eye looks like about 1.5" for DC. Disappointment compared to CMC and GFS There is another 4-6mm after that frame for DCA... 10mm or so in NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Someone should do a multi model run over run comparison of slp readings off of OC. Seems like most if not all models are trending deeper right now. What do you think? Better jet interaction with the improving upper level pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Capital Weather Gangs seasonal snow forecast would verify for everyone off this one storm per the 00z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, snjókoma said: That snow depth map makes little sense... temperatures are below freezing the entire time. Sure, not 23" but if we get 2" of QPF with a temperature depiction like the Canadian its not going to be 10" snow depth. I think it does. It's compaction. Anyway, snowfall is not measured days after ot has had the chance to melt or compact, so that map is irrelevant for purposes of official snowfall numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 23 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Thanks! Dca and iad seem in play. What about latest single digits for those? DCA 3/5 +6 IAD 3/15 -1 BWI 3/21 +8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 After the three other globals going all in so far in the 0z suite, I'd think the Euro should follow and increase the QPF coverage. Although SnowGoose from NY mentioned a few weeks back that the Euro has tended to have a dry bias this year. Not sure if that's true or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: What do you think? Better jet interaction with the improving upper level pattern? Yes, I think both. Especially the upper levels. The southern vort goes neg tilt at the perfect time. Even though it's not a huge vort, it goes neg right around va beach so there is rapid deepening of lp off the coast. We seem to be right in the cross hairs of a sick deform band nw of the low as it goes nuts off the coast. That plus the ns low seemingly wanting to give up earlier keeps the damage to the surface and midlevels to a minimum. I can't think of a single analog storm to this one. It's really more a tale of 2 separate storms that do a little dance right at a perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The theme of the 00Z runs is certainly "mountain high". Hopefully not peaking too early. It would be nice to see Euro come in with a big run----enough to see a from Matt. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Did a discount double check on the 00z GEFS... (yes, I know we prob shouldn't be using them now since we are in this close..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Did a discount double check on the 00z GEFS... (yes, I know we prob shouldn't be using them now since we are in this close..) We can still use the ENS for clustering of low position and consensus of strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Did a discount double check on the 00z GEFS... (yes, I know we prob shouldn't be using them now since we are in this close..) Might not be the most useful right now, but it's insane. 12" mean for DC and Fairfax county as well? Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 With everything going in oir favor tonight, I'm starting to think that stuff in NC makea it up here by morning.....anybody with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Did a discount double check on the 00z GEFS... (yes, I know we prob shouldn't be using them now since we are in this close..) With the Op models still bouncing around some, I don't see where a decent ensemble run hurts things. With the good mojo flowing tonight, feel free to post away. GEFS looks great. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GEFS low locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z GEFS individ ensembles quick review: 19 out of 20 show 6"+ for DC (e9 has ~3" as the only model outstanding of the 20) ~12 out of 20 show 10"+ for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 00z GEFS individ ensembles quick review: 19 out of 20 show 6"+ for DC (e9 has ~3" as the only model outstanding of the 20) ~12 out of 20 show 10"+ for DC Possibly post all of the ensemble possibilities? I'd love to wishcast yunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: With everything going in oir favor tonight, I'm starting to think that stuff in NC makea it up here by morning.....anybody with me? LOL. Actually I'm dreading the first person to post about some cluster of thunderstorms down south robbing our future storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GEFS individ ensembles quick review: 19 out of 20 show 6"+ for DC (e9 has ~3" as the only model outstanding of the 20) ~12 out of 20 show 10"+ for DC For fun I checked out the GEFS probabilities. 1" and 3" 99.9%, 6" 90%, 12" 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z UKMET for DC meteogram suggests 45-50mm of QPF (1.75-2.00 range)... temp is 32 degrees through event... 850s are fine... should be all snow in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ukie meteogram for DC. Looks like nearly 2" of qpf, all snow. There could be some mixing, but it's hard to tell with 12 hour increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, MDstorm said: LOL. Actually I'm dreading the first person to post about some cluster of thunderstorms down south robbing our future storm. Speaking of which, boy, the Gulf of Mexico looks to be priming itself tonight. Quite a cluster gathering. http://www.marylandwx.com/radar-data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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