PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Too close in for GFS! Right...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS is actually rain for DC... 925s above freezing 09z but we do relatively good on the backside, maybe 3" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NWS still has Loudoun in 6-12. Crazy breakdowns by 10 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Surface. Here's the 850s. Everyone can have some fun making sense of this panel. After taking a closer look it looks like the QPF bomb along the corridor is little snow at all based on the mids but I'm sorta confused with this panel: Just a thought but I wonder if that is caused by the warm bay waters compared to the cold surface temps. Getting better lift over the bay which is forcing the warmer mid-level layer just under the 850 to broach it. It is offset from the bay due to the easterly fetch we see. Would explain the colder columns on both sides as this lift is causing down-welling on both sides of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z 18z same panel I don't see much of a difference. Does anyone have a different map that shows the issue with mids/surface... ETA: I mean a very slight difference but with a global that seems like noise. Maybe time to focus on mesos and now casting imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: 12z 18z same panel I don't see much of a difference. Does anyone have a different map that shows the issue with mids/surface... Go to NE region and toggle the 850 temp panels. It's pretty clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Sure would be nice if the models busted too warm. They don't seem to have a problem busting too cold on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's the gfs 6 hours out. Ignore it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Comparing 3 hour panels of 18Z GFS to 12Z GFS...It is kinda ugly....looks like some rain along I 95 to me. 4am-8ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The GFS is so much warmer than the NAM. I'd really like to toss it but... The SLP positioning is similar but the NAM stays chilly and the GFS throws warm levels up to Gettysburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We had a few sleet pellets and snow flakes at 41 degrees here in se va. that may bode well further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 That is it for big models that matter - right? A 69 page thread should shut down I would think? We go to obs and short terms.. right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, midatlanticweather said: That is it for big models that matter - right? A 69 page thread should shut down I would think? We go to obs and short terms.. right? Yeah models dont matter much now after the 18Z suite...except for the HRRR and RAP of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah, it's time to move to nowcast...too many threads to check. So locking this one up folks..we're in nowcast mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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