Warm Nose Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 New refresh of WSW for Western/Northern areas Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 518 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505>507-WVZ051>053- 140530- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 518 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches. Over one foot is possible across north-central Maryland. * TIMING...Snow will overspread the area this evening and persist through Tuesday morning. The heaviest snow will occur between midnight and 8 AM with rates of one to two inches per hour possible. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. * WINDS...Northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: 20z HRRR sets up the R/S line over Richmond until 3 AM, and then it barely moves over the city. Still waiting on the rest of the run but it is juicy! Richmond or DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem looks like an epic period of sleet between 6-12z for dc and my yard. Could be thundersleet. I mean, if we're gonna do it... Like I said before, nobody wants sleet. But we all like extremes here. So if that's what we're stuck with, let's do it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Richmond or DC? Richmond. At 3 AM it migrates to the 95 crew. Its a VERY good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 If we could get the 18Z RGEM to move that SLP not even 30 to 50 miles east... I think we could stay snow... 850 0c line is in Loudoun County overnight on the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: New refresh of WSW for Western/Northern areas Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 518 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505>507-WVZ051>053- 140530- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 518 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches. Over one foot is possible across north-central Maryland. * TIMING...Snow will overspread the area this evening and persist through Tuesday morning. The heaviest snow will occur between midnight and 8 AM with rates of one to two inches per hour possible. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. * WINDS...Northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ 6-12" sounds right based on the latest trends. Hopefully it won't get any lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Richmond. At 3 AM it migrates to the 95 crew. Its a VERY good run. That sounds like a weird HRRR run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 20z hrrr was an improvement for sure. The mix line comes later and it looks like once the deform band begins to pivot we switch fairly quickly back to snow. By my count only 4-5 hours in mix zone for western half of ffx county. Good run. Hope this trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This middle finger keeps ruining the snow IMBY! Wierd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, yoda said: That sounds like a weird HRRR run Snow enters at 8:00 R/S line sets up far south Doesn't touch the city til 3 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 20z HRRR is a couple inches of snow than DC gets crushed by thundersleet... probably 3-4" worth. We may pick up an inch on the backside but that looks like all sleet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Snow enters at 8:00 R/S line sets up far south Doesn't touch the city til 3 AM Surface is cold too, freezing line never really touches D.C. Really a shame we're gonna have a warm nose....maybe models are overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Agree, HRRRs been creeping that mix line further east each run. Subtle but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Surface is cold too, freezing line never really touches D.C. Really a shame we're gonna have a warm nose....maybe models are overdoing it. If the surface is in the high 20s... that 4" of snow/sleet will glaciate and become like cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Damn. Gfs warmer in the mids again. Pushes the mix line further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: If we could get the 18Z RGEM to move that SLP not even 30 to 50 miles east... I think we could stay snow... 850 0c line is in Loudoun County overnight on the run... I concur... the RGEM very close to being a massive storm for many of us who are just north and west of the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, yoda said: 18Z RGEM also suggests upper 20s for lows across N VA and DC and MD It had a low of 13 for me last night. I think I was at like 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS runs the low inland over southern DE. Not a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS has a nasty warm nose and dry slot over the Baltimore area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: GFS runs the low inland over southern DE. Not a great look. Wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS is also warmer at the surface... never get below freezing in DC. Meh I'll take the RGEM/HRRR killer combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just gonna ignore the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn. Gfs warmer in the mids again. Pushes the mix line further west. Weird. Doesn't appear much different then 12z imo. Less aggressive on front end thump but r/s line looks similar. You have sounding comparisons? They're not out yet right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: GFS has a nasty warm nose and dry slot over the Baltimore area... It's pretty even with qpf. 1.25+ for most including baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 LOL at the GFS. Went from the coldest model to now one of the most tucked in, warm models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NWS really changed ranges dramatically with the sleet invasion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's pretty even with qpf. 1.25+ for most including baltimore. I was looking at the 18z frame.... looks much drier over Baltimore than both west and east. And the previous frame had that warm nose at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Lol....there's no dry slot for baltimore. It's just warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Lol....there's no dry slot for baltimore. It's just warm. Is this not a dry slot at the tail end of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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