Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR is a pretty weenie run...cold and snowy...still snowing when the run cuts off and most people outside the beltway have 10-15"...even 6" IMBY I see a lot of sleet on that run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Can't mod things when 15 people quote it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 There was a special run of the NCAR ensemble at 12z today. Mean snowfall attached. Interestingly, the time period between 9 and 16z tomorrow is when a decent amount of the snow around the I-95 corridor accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Agree. It was mocked as it frequently is but it latched on to the western track first before the coveted GFS. Ummm, no. This is a terrible misreading of what has occurred. The NAM has actually trended toward the globals, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Unless I've got the wrong image or cycle, looks like much of the area's precip type is sleet...and it goes way to the west with that, even through 13Z tomorrow morning? This is looking at NCEP's MAG page. It depends on the maps you use...I'll fully admit I am using snowmaps for these hourly runs...Vista is higher than WXbell for once...not saying it is my forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: There was a special run of the NCAR ensemble at 12z today. Mean snowfall attached. Interestingly, the time period between 9 and 16z tomorrow is when a decent amount of the snow around the I-95 corridor accumulates. Around 5 or 6" at DC sounds nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: It depends on the maps you use...I'll fully admit I am using snowmaps for these hourly runs...Vista is higher than WXbell for once...not saying it is my forecast... Oh, I get that...I was only looking at the NCEP maps (and quickly at that), didn't see any of the other sites you mentioned. Not sure how the precip type algorithms vary, but I'm sure they do. Apologies if I sounded like I was implying it was your forecast, not my intent at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Oh, I get that...I was only looking at the NCEP maps (and quickly at that), didn't see any of the other sites you mentioned. Not sure how the precip type algorithms vary, but I'm sure they do. Apologies if I sounded like I was implying it was your forecast, not my intent at all. No worries. It is silly to use snow maps, but just kind of wasting time at this point. I'm going to peek at the 18z GFS and then make a detailed final forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18z RGEM has DC solidly in the 10mm+ through 6z Tuesday... is that all snow? Kinda agrees with GGEM qpf wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, high risk said: There was a special run of the NCAR ensemble at 12z today. Mean snowfall attached. Interestingly, the time period between 9 and 16z tomorrow is when a decent amount of the snow around the I-95 corridor accumulates. That is interesting it has much of the snow falling during that 7 hour time period. But all the same, this looks in line with much of the other guidance in terms of snowfall. Would imply a general 4-8" along the Corridor, though I'm sure there's sleet included in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 18z RGEM has DC solidly in the 10mm+ through 6z Tuesday... is that all snow? We're not getting all snow here in immediate DC Metro...It's a lock that we will flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: No worries. It is silly to use snow maps, but just kind of wasting time at this point. I'm going to peek at the 18z GFS and then make a detailed final forecast. Heh...truth to that! But they are sometimes very pretty to look at even if one knows they're to be taken with a huge grain of, errr, sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The midday ARW and NMM both look very favorable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 ARW = Always Really Wet NMM = Never Much Moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Rgem looks like an epic period of sleet between 6-12z for dc and my yard. Could be thundersleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18z RGEM has DCA ripping from 03z to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Steve Dimartino makes Justin Berk look bearish. 10-20 inches with isolated 24 and very isolated (LOL) 30!! I think I smell a bust. https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2017/03/12/powerful-winter-storm-brings-potential-for-blizzard-conditions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We're not getting all snow here in immediate DC Metro...It's a lock that we will flip He meant through 06z Tuesday, which is around when we flip. RGEM has about 10mm+ so that could be all snow, conceivably, if the temps are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We're not getting all snow here in immediate DC Metro...It's a lock that we will flip I know... I was wondering on the time before 06z on the 18z RGEM... it looks pretty wet... I was wondering if that is all snow before we hear loud pinging... TT maps seem to think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Steve Dimartino makes Justin Berk look bearish. 10-20 inches with isolated 24 and very isolated (LOL) 30!! I think I smell a bust. https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2017/03/12/powerful-winter-storm-brings-potential-for-blizzard-conditions/ LOL Dude has always been a hype-master. He has 2-6 inches for coastal Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem looks like an epic period of sleet between 6-12z for dc and my yard. Could be thundersleet. That would be unreal! I'm not all that far from your area, so I'd expect fairly similar here. Might be worth waking up to take some photos in that if the RGEM is right (note to self: use a lens hood)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I know... I was wondering on the time before 06z on the 18z RGEM... it looks pretty wet... I was wondering if that is all snow before we hear loud pinging... TT maps seem to think so Pivotal does a good job of sleet representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: That would be unreal! I'm not all that far from your area, so I'd expect fairly similar here. Might be worth waking up to take some photos in that if it's real (note to self: use a lens hood)! I'm asking this question based on one specific event I experienced....does thundersleet necessarily imply strong dynamic *cooling*? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Very impressive banded structure develops early on the rgem. And tons of qpf. 1.5-1.75 for almost all of us. Impressive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I might toss my bar and consider this a win of a storm if I get any thunderfrozen. Haven't seen it since 2013. I have never seen it. Ever that I can remember. But willing to try it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Very impressive banded structure develops early on the rgem. And tons of qpf. 1.5-1.75 for almost all of us. Impressive run. Do we ever flip back to snow...and is there much left by that point in the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 20z HRRR sets up the R/S line over Richmond until 3 AM, and then it barely moves over the city. Still waiting on the rest of the run but it is juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: I'm asking this question based on one specific event I experienced....does thundersleet necessarily imply strong dynamic cooling? The banded structure and rapidly depending lp close by would most likely have low topped convection associated with it. I think warm enough midlevels for mixing is guaranteed for the dc burbs at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: I'm asking this question based on one specific event I experienced....does thundersleet necessarily imply strong dynamic *cooling*? That I'm not sure about, not seeing any details or soundings. I'd think thundersleet (much like thundersnow) would more be due to embedded instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 New refresh of WSW for Western/Northern areas Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 518 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505>507-WVZ051>053- 140530- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 518 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches. Over one foot is possible across north-central Maryland. * TIMING...Snow will overspread the area this evening and persist through Tuesday morning. The heaviest snow will occur between midnight and 8 AM with rates of one to two inches per hour possible. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. * WINDS...Northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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