MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3km NAM looks like a massive sleetfest from 3am-8am with the peak around 5am. I suppose that is quite good for those worried about OPM. edit - less QPF overall though - under an inch for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 3km NAM looks like a massive sleetfest from 3am-8am with the peak around 5am. I suppose that is quite good for those worried about OPM. edit - less QPF overall though - under an inch for DC Congrats Richmond! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 3km NAM looks like a massive sleetfest from 3am-8am with the peak around 5am. I suppose that is quite good for those worried about OPM. edit - less QPF overall though - under an inch for DC Nasty dry slot punches up through the corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering we'll never see the 12k nam again shortly, I saw we start now by never seeing it again today. Yay DGEX! RT @NWSEMC: Due to critical weather day Weds, the upcoming NAM upgrade has been rescheduled for Mar 21 at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just pick the snowiest nam. It's worked all winterSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Yay DGEX! RT @NWSEMC: Due to critical weather day Weds, the upcoming NAM upgrade has been rescheduled for Mar 21 at 12z. Perhaps poetic justice that this maddening storm will give this eternally crappy model a six-day stay of execution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Trending on HRRR of sleet to west is pretty cruddy for all! Sleet fest starting to look likely for even more of teh area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, feloniousq said: Perhaps poetic justice that this maddening storm will give this eternally crappy model a six-day stay of execution. One final fail before it's kicked to the curb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, feloniousq said: Perhaps poetic justice that this maddening storm will give this eternally crappy model a six-day stay of execution. Nam was first and consistent with the western track and warm nose. Sat gfs and cmc was snow city and they folded to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Negnao said: Nam was first and consistent with the western track and warm nose. Sat gfs and cmc was snow city and they folded to the nam Agree. It was mocked as it frequently is but it latched on to the western track first before the coveted GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Negnao said: Nam was first and consistent with the western track and warm nose. Sat gfs and cmc was snow city and they folded to the nam Just no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Negnao said: Nam was first and consistent with the western track and warm nose. Sat gfs and cmc was snow city and they folded to the nam This is not really good analysis of what we were seeing on the NAM. Warmer.. sure.. but I would not say it was close to what is transpiring. IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, midatlanticweather said: This is not really good analysis of what we were seeing on the NAM. Warmer.. sure.. but I would not say it was close to what is transpiring. IIRC agreed. it had the low in central VA a couple days ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Agree. It was mocked as it frequently is but it latched on to the western track first before the coveted GFS. Patently false. We were criticizing the nam when it was first taking the northern low into lake eerie and again when it was jumping the northern across our region and then again when it finally found the southern low that the globals had all identified in advance it was tracking it through central NC. If you think the NAM discovered the southern low and now a track further west before all other guidance then you haven't looked at any models for the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 19z HRRR is a pretty weenie run...cold and snowy...still snowing when the run cuts off and most people outside the beltway have 10-15"...even 6" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR is a pretty weenie run...cold and snowy...still snowing when the run cuts off and most people outside the beltway have 10-15"...even 6" IMBY can anyone confirm this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR is a pretty weenie run...cold and snowy...still snowing when the run cuts off and most people outside the beltway have 10-15"...even 6" IMBY Hey Deck... is there another site other than weatherbell to get this data? Other than the rapidrefresh noaa page which is slow? Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18z RGEM looks colder and nicer on the front end to my untrained eyes, can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR is a pretty weenie run...cold and snowy...still snowing when the run cuts off and most people outside the beltway have 10-15"...even 6" IMBY Odd. It cut back 2" imby. I just need to wait another hour I guess. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, DCAlexandria said: can anyone confirm this? why do you need confirmation? You're a pro forecaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Joshfsu123 said: Hey Deck... is there another site other than weatherbell to get this data? Other than the rapidrefresh noaa page which is slow? Appreciate it. I use SV and Weatherbell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: can anyone confirm this? With more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Odd. It cut back 2" imby. I just need to wait another hour I guess. Lol Tropical Tidbits view of it doesn't look that good. Not bad, but not that good. Probably just site differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: can anyone confirm this? What kind of post is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR is a pretty weenie run...cold and snowy...still snowing when the run cuts off and most people outside the beltway have 10-15"...even 6" IMBY I don't see this at all... all the snowfall maps are worse and 850s are significantly worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: I don't see this at all... all the snowfall maps are worse and 850s are significantly worse. yeah that's what I was seeing, thought I was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 19z hrrr looked good to meSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 19z HRRR is a pretty weenie run...cold and snowy...still snowing when the run cuts off and most people outside the beltway have 10-15"...even 6" IMBY Unless I've got the wrong image or cycle, looks like much of the area's precip type is sleet...and it goes way to the west with that, even through 13Z tomorrow morning? This is looking at NCEP's MAG page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What kind of post is this? too many reruns of Law and Order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR doesn't look that great to me. It looks like the same areas expecting snow get it, and I'm guessing the areas around 95 are getting sleet and that's throwing off the snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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