Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Whoever keeps saying they will be happy with sleet is in bs modeSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Ji said: Whoever keeps saying they will be happy with sleet is in bs mode Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Nobody is happy with hit. Nobody wants it, but when it's all you got.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Ji said: Whoever keeps saying they will be happy with sleet is in bs mode Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Most of us would be satisfied with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: Whoever keeps saying they will be happy with sleet is in bs mode Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yeah considering the storm just barely northeast of us, I think this is rather depressing, but I think many may be just in denial and trying to spin it into a positive. I'm still holding out hope for a surprise, but know it's highly unlikely. You could see on the last frame of the HRRR animated map that it was starting to pivot with ice still on 95, so it looks like we should avoid rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Le final: Nice! Good to see you haven't downgraded Carroll County since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Whoever keeps saying they will be happy with sleet is in bs mode Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It beats rain and it beats a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: Not sure if someone posted this already, but here's the latest snow map from LWX. I'm a little jealous of mappy You don't do too bad Fozz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TERPhD Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It seems the sleet line on the HRRR drifts westward each frame until 5:00am, but then turns back eastward beginning sometime shortly after 5:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My expectations are usually low honestly. QPF after the low is north of our latitude is notorious for being overdone. This particular case is fairly energetic with some twists and turns so the potential is there. Northern tier looks good though but they never flip so they have the best of both worlds. My total guess is maybe 2-3" for my yard after the sandstorm lets up. Wish you well there, and I agree, the dynamics and the gradients are pretty crazy. There may be some positive improvemts at the last minutes, or it could go the other way. Attempting to be positive. We can look back and see how the various short range models did, as it will be an interesitng storm to follow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: It beats rain and it beats a dry slot. True...but I think just missing the freezing mark during the highest precip rates of the storm may hurt just as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, TERPhD said: It seems the sleet line on the HRRR drifts westward each frame until 5:00am, but then turns back eastward beginning sometime shortly after 5:00am. I was going to post that as well until I was forced to get back to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Sounds like a dedicated rationalizations thread is overdue. Maybe for some. I've posted at least once every day for the last 3-4 at least that I fully expected to mix. And it became more obvious every day on guidance. It's a classic mixed precip mid march storm that favors the typical folks in favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 hours ago, DCTeacherman said: 20 minutes ago, Ji said: Whoever keeps saying they will be happy with sleet is in bs mode Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nobody is happy with hit. Nobody wants it, but when it's all you got.. I'll take it over cold rain any day and especially this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Interestingly, the GFS text output from Earl Barker's site looks better than I would've thought for DC. Not sure what happens between 18 and 24 (on the maps, it looks like the warmest panel is 20h), but the warmest any layer gets on here is 0.7c. http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The euro has been god awful for this storm. It's only put out like 12 different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Still a sleet bomb, but the 18z HRRR is cooler at the surface near DC. Also shows the precip "fighting back" a bit on the sleet line early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Our Round Hill and Purcellville friends are loving the HRRR. Definitely. Nice 700mb UVVs have been showing up consistently out here in the pre-dawn hours. Upstairs looks cold enough to hang onto all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Still a sleet bomb, but the 18z HRRR is cooler at the surface near DC. Also shows the precip "fighting back" a bit on the sleet line early on. The front end is better as well... .5" contour tickles DC to the south as we switch to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Still a sleet bomb, but the 18z HRRR is cooler at the surface near DC. Also shows the precip "fighting back" a bit on the sleet line early on. Its hour 5 gets sprinkles even up here before the main event! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017031318/hrrr_ref_frzn_eus_6.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Still a sleet bomb, but the 18z HRRR is cooler at the surface near DC. Also shows the precip "fighting back" a bit on the sleet line early on. It's been trending wetter pre-flip too. But that's really just catching up to other guidance and not groundbreaking. And agree that the sleet line seems to be meeting more resistance. We'll know a lot more in about 6 hours or so though. For all we know the flip line moved forward in time on guidance as we go through the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah, for whatever it's worth (probably not much), HRRRRrRr has been ticking colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: At this point I'm rooting for a sleet bomb here like what the nam is showing...avoiding rain is my bar now The sleet is my fault guys, sorry....I posted this 9 hours ago and then it trended towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's been trending wetter pre-flip too. But that's really just catching up to other guidance and not groundbreaking. And agree that the sleet line seems to be meeting more resistance. We'll know a lot more in about 6 hours or so though. For all we know the flip line moved forward in time on guidance as we go through the evening. The surface low has been trending east as well. 15-20 miles will make tons of difference to those on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 exp hrrr 16z run has the good stuff early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, for whatever it's worth (probably not much), HRRRRrRr has been ticking colder and wetter. Here's where the 18z ends up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR would make a lot of people here happy. I don't even touch the sleet line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: HRRR would make a lot of people here happy. I don't even touch the sleet line. yep, and with more precip to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, supernovasky said: HRRR would make a lot of people here happy. I don't even touch the sleet line. Which one again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18Z HRRR looks great. This is QPF through 12Z Still plenty more to come after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR Develops that weird Euro feature at 17h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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