ThePhotoGuy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is not all snow. Driving sleet for a time for sure but very impressive totals for the corridor. I'm obviously happy with this panel. It's each man for himself on this one. lol Interesting. Thanks for posting that. Some high precip totals for us Easterners... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: yikes... sandstorm for sure. You got that right. Especially west of 95. Here's the 925's @ 12z. So in my yard I have a below surface freezing with 925s well below freezing. This could be the biggest sleetstorm I'll ever experience in my life if the euro is accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: another map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest I don't think I have ever seen a line like that right through Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 17Z HRRR is a snow mauling for anyone Dulles and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Surface. Here's the 850s. Everyone can have some fun making sense of this panel. After taking a closer look it looks like the QPF bomb along the corridor is little snow at all based on the mids but I'm sorta confused with this panel: saw that too when i was able to get in there. its weird. even i would flip and I'm not sure I buy that. No other model has shown me getting a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You got that right. Especially west of 95. Here's the 925's @ 12z. So in my yard I have a below surface freezing with 925s well below freezing. This could be the biggest sleetstorm I'll ever experience in my life if the euro is accurate I wonder what's best to say in terms of forecasts. Would it be better to say location x gets y" total or location x gets ya" of snow + yb" of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Le final: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 That map is fooking brutal....7" imby and 14" literally 10 minutes up the Baltimore Beltway from me. Well, here's hoping the 3K NAM is right and I'm on the left side of the freezing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 PA declared a state of emergency. I wonder when MD will do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Ellinwood said: Le final: That map looks ideal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12Z ECMWF keeps 2-m temps at or just below freezing for much of the event, whereas the 850 temps are 1-2C above freezing. As a result, DC area is progged for quite a bit of ice, mixing. Note that the quantities are liquid equivalent for each type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: saw that too when i was able to get in there. its weird. even i would flip and I'm not sure I buy that. No other model has shown me getting a mix. There are some odd things on some of those panels. I doubt you mix too and if you do it's not going to be for long. I'm definitely getting sleeted on good. And honestly, I'm looking forward to it. This entire time my biggest fear was a driving rainstorm and being on the outside looking in. Getting hammered with sleet is a completely acceptable outcome. I'm good with it. The HRRR is too dry right now imho. Especially through 3AM or so. We're going to see that trend wetter as the hours pass. I'm pretty much 100% certain. PType presentation so far looks pretty reasonable though. Fits with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Do you have the kuchera version? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: There are some odd things on some of those panels. I doubt you mix too and if you do it's not going to be for long. I'm definitely getting sleeted on good. And honestly, I'm looking forward to it. This entire time my biggest fear was a driving rainstorm and being on the outside looking in. Getting hammered with sleet is a completely acceptable outcome. I'm good with it. The HRRR is too dry right now imho. Especially through 3AM or so. We're going to see that trend wetter as the hours pass. I'm pretty much 100% certain. PType presentation so far looks pretty reasonable though. Fits with other guidance. Ha, get out of my head. Thought the same thing when I went through it. Only has .6 IMBY by 6am, when every other model is nearly double that by morning. I need to stop looking at models and just let it play out. I have no reason to worry, but seeing the Euro send the 850s soaring up north made me jittery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You got that right. Especially west of 95. Here's the 925's @ 12z. So in my yard I have a below surface freezing with 925s well below freezing. This could be the biggest sleetstorm I'll ever experience in my life if the euro is accurate Weird. Not sure what to think of that. Obviously it's banding, but still kind of bizarre. Temps shouldn't waffle 4-5c based on precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, BTRWx said: You'll like Bernie's video. http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/expert-forecasts/snowstorm-tuesday-snow-amounts-over-2-feet/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4 I thInk if everyone took a few minutes to watch it, they would definitely like. I did! I like the fact that he thinks GFS is too far west, and thinks the Euro MIGHT re-adjust a touch more east. Fingers crossed, but ultimately it's almost nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 17Z HRRR is a snow mauling for anyone Dulles and NW. Our Round Hill and Purcellville friends are loving the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weird. Not sure what to think of that. Obviously it's banding, but still kind of bizarre. Temps shouldn't waffle 4-5c based on precip rates. I have my head wrapped around my postage stamp of real estate. There will be some nail biting tonight once the sleet starts showing on dual pol. Once that advances over my yard snow won't be returning until after the pivot. I'm not really sure how much I can get on the ground before that. I'm thinking maybe 4-5" or so. I wouldn't be surprised if the flip happens earlier than I want. Nothing I can do about it. So far none of the most reliable guidance is showing plain rain. I'm very happy about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I have me head wrapped around my postage stamp of real estate. There will be some nail biting tonight once the sleet starts showing on dual pol. Once that advances over my yard snow won't be returning until after the pivot. I'm not really sure how much I can get on the ground before that. I'm thinking maybe 4-5" or so. I wouldn't be surprised if the flip happens earlier than I want. Nothing I can do about it. So far none of the most reliable guidance is showing plain rain. I'm very happy about that. Bob, in your area what are your expectations after the change back to snow in terms of additional accumulations ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I have my head wrapped around my postage stamp of real estate. There will be some nail biting tonight once the sleet starts showing on dual pol. Once that advances over my yard snow won't be returning until after the pivot. I'm not really sure how much I can get on the ground before that. I'm thinking maybe 4-5" or so. I wouldn't be surprised if the flip happens earlier than I want. Nothing I can do about it. So far none of the most reliable guidance is showing plain rain. I'm very happy about that. It will be an enjoyable storm for me as progged. I'll fall asleep while it's snowing at midnight and wake up around 6-7am after the change back. That's how this snow weenie deals with his dendritic despair! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Our Round Hill and Purcellville friends are loving the HRRR. Yep. Its .8 all snow by 11Z. They will be well on their way to over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I have my head wrapped around my postage stamp of real estate. There will be some nail biting tonight once the sleet starts showing on dual pol. Once that advances over my yard snow won't be returning until after the pivot. I'm not really sure how much I can get on the ground before that. I'm thinking maybe 4-5" or so. I wouldn't be surprised if the flip happens earlier than I want. Nothing I can do about it. So far none of the most reliable guidance is showing plain rain. I'm very happy about that. That's exactly where my bar is at with the storm -- avoiding a driving rainstorm. I'd be happy with an inch or two of snow and an epic sleet fest followed by a back end band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Not sure if someone posted this already, but here's the latest snow map from LWX. I'm a little jealous of mappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There are some odd things on some of those panels. I doubt you mix too and if you do it's not going to be for long. I'm definitely getting sleeted on good. And honestly, I'm looking forward to it. This entire time my biggest fear was a driving rainstorm and being on the outside looking in. Getting hammered with sleet is a completely acceptable outcome. I'm good with it. The HRRR is too dry right now imho. Especially through 3AM or so. We're going to see that trend wetter as the hours pass. I'm pretty much 100% certain. PType presentation so far looks pretty reasonable though. Fits with other guidance. That Euro breakdown of precip types above your post suggests around 2" of sleet for you and me. That's a disruptive amount--as in driving is difficult---if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: That's exactly where my bar is at with the storm -- avoiding a driving rainstorm. I'd be happy with an inch or two of snow and an epic sleet fest followed by a back end band of snow. and most people who do avoid that will almost certainly do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: Not sure if someone posted this already, but here's the latest snow map from LWX. I'm a little jealous of mappy click refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: click refresh Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: Bob, in your area what are your expectations after the change back to snow in terms of additional accumulations ? My expectations are usually low honestly. QPF after the low is north of our latitude is notorious for being overdone. This particular case is fairly energetic with some twists and turns so the potential is there. Northern tier looks good though but they never flip so they have the best of both worlds. My total guess is maybe 2-3" for my yard after the sandstorm lets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Yeoman said: No way Leesburg has only an inch more than DC... The old map posted by accident... check again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.