eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, SLPressure said: DCA 15 IAD 13 BWI 6 Thanks! Dca and iad seem in play. What about latest single digits for those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 ICON is another nuke. A good bit of precip before this too. Icon is a half decent short range model from what I've seen so far. It's not very jumpy and has been pretty consistent with this storm run over run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ian said: Warm tears of joy flow down my cheek. That is a much much better look at 500! That's what we needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Those upper lows always have to be watched. It even tries to pop another surface feature this run. That isn't shocking. It's a darn good h5 pass. If the atmosphere wasn't so used up at that point it probably would have popped a good storm there Tuesday night. There have hints of this a few times. I have a memory in Richmond growing up when we had a Miller B miss but 6" from the upper low that the forecasters missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Cmc is 15" from Richmond to Boston. Would be historic in Jan - which gives pause, but what the heck, why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wait a minute...Has the duration changed with this storm? (I'm looking at the projected totals, lol) Are we talking about a late Monday night to late Tuesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Kuchera Snows 30" for NE of Philly with the Canadian. I would upload the picture, but it keeps on failing to upload Here you go. It's like the Weather Channel drew up their dream map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wait a minute...Has the duration changed with this storm? (I'm looking at the projected totals, lol) Are we talking about a late Monday night to late Tuesday night? The GFS rolls a couple of inches through Tuesday night with the Upper Level low. But I think it will be pretty much done by 3:00 PM. The cool thing about that is that if we get a foot of snow.. the kids will definitely have off Tues and Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Don't think I noticed this before. While the RGEM only goes out 48 hours, if you click on the meteogram, it extends out 84 hours. Is it a combination of the mesoscale & global models? Anyway, the 3/12 00z update indicates about 36 mm of qpf, or 1.4 inches at DCA. Most of it is snow, though a minor portion is light rain at the start (presumably until the precip is steady enough to cool the column) and perhaps a little freezing rain mixing in (surface cools enough but an intrusion of warmer air at about 850). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: Here you go. It's like the Weather Channel drew up their dream map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 These model runs remind me a little bit of last years blizzard when they just kept getting crazier the closer to the event we got. Obviously the QPF and Accum numbers arent as outrageous. But the lead up feels similar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wait a minute...Has the duration changed with this storm? (I'm looking at the projected totals, lol) Are we talking about a late Monday night to late Tuesday night? No, snow breaks out around 8pm or so depending on the model. The good stuff happens overnight (which is great in March) and most have it ending in the morning...rates look to be pretty crazy overnight. Maybe some additional snow Tuesday evening as the ULL pulls through. It won't be a 24 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wait a minute...Has the duration changed with this storm? (I'm looking at the projected totals, lol) Are we talking about a late Monday night to late Tuesday night? It has potential for a 1-2 (surface low then upper low) but it's unlikely the upper low will do much. Gfs was the best so far and it was in the .1-.3 range for mostly just MD. However, the appeal of the upper low dropping some snow will be pretty nice if we get dumped on first. Upper level lows usually drop those big fluffy high ratio dendrites because it's really cold aloft and instability driven snow it usually dry and fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait a minute...Has the duration changed with this storm? (I'm looking at the projected totals, lol) Are we talking about a late Monday night to late Tuesday night? This was always a Monday night storm that ended near sunrise Tuesday. A few rogue runs extended it longer, but it's probably not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: No, snow breaks out around 8pm or so depending on the model. The good stuff happens overnight (which is great in March) and most have it ending in the morning...rates look to be pretty crazy overnight. Maybe some additional snow Tuesday evening as the ULL pulls through. It won't be a 24 hour event. So you're telling me all that's projected can fall in like 10-12 hours??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Thanks! Dca and iad seem in play. What about latest single digits for those? Sorry. Copied wrong info. Here is the correct data: DCA 14 IAD 16 BWI 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: These model runs remind me a little bit of last years blizzard when they just kept getting crazier the closer to the event we got. Obviously the QPF and Accum numbers arent as outrageous. But the lead up feels similar to me. Some locations could exceed what fell in the blizzard last year though. DC needs only what, 17"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Those upper lows always have to be watched. It even tries to pop another surface feature this run. That isn't shocking. It's a darn good h5 pass. If the atmosphere wasn't so used up at that point it probably would have popped a good storm there Tuesday night. Mood snows as we shovel. Perfect. Nice runs tonight. Hoping we can seal the deal tomorrow. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Canada literally sends their love. Heart shape QPF off the coast. This is an actual screen capture from TT I just took. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: ICON is another nuke. A good bit of precip before this too. Icon is a half decent short range model from what I've seen so far. It's not very jumpy and has been pretty consistent with this storm run over run. It was pretty consistent with another storm earlier in the year too. The 00z run is the juiced up brother of its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, cae said: Here you go. It's like the Weather Channel drew up their dream map. The 12" contour even looks exactly like Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, cae said: Here you go. It's like the Weather Channel drew up their dream map. more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The surface maps of the UKMET suggest a big hit for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, ge0 said: Some locations could exceed what fell in the blizzard last year though. DC needs only what, 17"? Yep some could. But those model runs were spitting our 40" totals like sunflower seeds. It was the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Someone should do a multi model run over run comparison of slp readings off of OC. Seems like most if not all models are trending deeper right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: more realistic That snow depth map makes little sense... temperatures are below freezing the entire time. Sure, not 23" but if we get 2" of QPF with a temperature depiction like the Canadian its not going to be 10" snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, snjókoma said: That snow depth map makes little sense... temperatures are below freezing the entire time. Sure, not 23" but if we get 2" of QPF with a temperature depiction like the Canadian its not going to be 10" snow depth. Plus it's at night after a cold two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What does the UKMET say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, Amped said: Look at the surface winds. They go back to east ahead of the second low and there is up slope in the Catoctins., especially near the PA border. Best of all, some of it falls after sundown Tuesday. Those are the kinds of things I can pick up a nice surprise 3" from easy up here. Bonus if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 HOLY CRAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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