WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would expect at least SOME mixing (sleet) to occur anywhere southeast of a line from Washington VA to Ashburn to Reisterstown, to Hereford. Once about 10 miles southeast of 95 the mixing could become the majority of the storm. But in the transition zone (which includes about 80% of the population of this board) I can see the totals ranging from 5-10" depending on exactly how much thump we get before a flip, and how long it sleets, and how much deform after. Northwest of that line I think is 10"+ at least from Leesburg northeast. I could also see how this flips in our favor if that deform band wraps up and just unleashes on us and the thermals suddenly crash and everyone ends up happy. Don't expect it but holding out hope is ok. Well said. My biggest takeaway from the 12z guidance is the possibility of significant sleet accumulation for those of us in that middle zone. 1-2" of sleet perhaps? That's actually kind of fun (assuming we have nice snow before and after). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Now that RAP is in range, it is starting to show the deform band tomorrow morning. Also it is looking like more of a 9-10 pm start for DC Metro...which is fine with me...I'm not sure it matters much....HRRR has me flip between 2 and 3 am. Probably enough time to get 1-3" on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Except the problem is you're using snow maps to diagnose trends better diagnosed by other panels and parameters. I'm not saying there isn't a trend but you could have picked many better maps to show your point. There could easily be a ton of sleet in borderline areas - and those snow maps are often overdone anyway. I shared his link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, yoda said: @Bob Chill Is this all snow through 06z? Yes, 95/DC/Balt and west would be all snow. Mix line just hitting DC at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 My house is approx. 9 miles east of 95 in western AA Co. I'm going in expecting 2-4" up front with a bunch of sleet to follow. Anything on the back end is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, 95/DC/Balt and west would be all snow. Mix line just hitting DC at 6z Nice... 3"-5" in the WAA thump I would guess if 12z GGEM is correct then before we go ping ping ping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I shared his link! I realize that... But are you saying that you were not trying to show the trends using snow maps? I'm just confused as to what you are trying to say...no hard feelings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just cause I'm bored here at the soundings for 18, 21, and 24 hours on the GFS. 18 is probably still snow with rates, 21 is probably sleet but not a disgusting sounding, and 24 is back to snow. Let's hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR - Composite Radar at 6am. That is all snow once you are west of DC. We're getting a death band folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I realize that... But are you saying that you were not trying to show the trends using snow maps? I'm just confused as to what you are trying to say...no hard feelings! I added more text for your critique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: HRRR - Composite Radar at 6am. That is all snow once you are west of DC. We're getting a death band folks. That looks yummy... hopefully it can stay around for a few hours and ravage us with its death band gloriousness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, yoda said: That looks yummy... hopefully it can stay around for a few hours and ravage us with its death band gloriousness If I am reading the 850 temp that match that frame correctly... most of us are over 0 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Nice... 3"-5" in the WAA thump I would guess if 12z GGEM is correct then before we go ping ping ping? I'd keep your expectations low on the front end. I still think the potential of a horrible bust inside the beltway is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Just cause I'm bored here at the soundings for 18, 21, and 24 hours on the GFS. 18 is probably still snow with rates, 21 is probably sleet but not a disgusting sounding, and 24 is back to snow. Let's hope it's right. That is a noteworthy sounding! The warm layer appears quite shallow in depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: If I am reading the 850 temp that match that frame correctly... most of us are over 0 C. I don't believe so, though sfc temps I-95 and east are iffy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: That is a noteworthy sounding! The warm layer appears quite shallow in depth. Yeah it's not a huge warm nose...it could be in and out pretty quick I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I don't believe so, though sfc temps I-95 and east are iffy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Just cause I'm bored here at the soundings for 18, 21, and 24 hours on the GFS. 18 is probably still snow with rates, 21 is probably sleet but not a disgusting sounding, and 24 is back to snow. Let's hope it's right. To piggy back on this, pivotal has the Kuchera ratio maps. I think it's pretty useless when trying to figure out if you are going to be getting really high ratios, but it can be useful for determining where mixing could occur. The maps can give you a broader picture instead of clicking on individual soundings all over the place, and can help compare an old run to a new model run. You can just hover the cursor over the area and it will give you the ratio. Anything less than 8:1 would surely be mixing. Here's hr 18 of the GFS as an example: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I'd keep your expectations low on the front end. I still think the potential of a horrible bust inside the beltway is possible. I am... I am expecting around 2" or so... if we get more great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I don't believe so, though sfc temps I-95 and east are iffy... There's more potential for a horrible bust here. The forecast is more and we're only 20 miles from mixing and the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Potomac RSTs (River-Surface Temps) warming the 850s? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Low position on euro at 12z tomorrow is essentially identical to GFS and GGEM. Has a weird middle finger of 850 0c line over D.C. and Carroll county and then below 0c east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Amped said: There's more potential for a horrible bust here. The forecast is more and we're only 20 miles from mixing and the dryslot. The forecast is more what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We're roughly T-6 from onset and still an wide spread in terms of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 looks a tad bit warmer than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Low position on euro at 12z tomorrow is essentially identical to GFS and GGEM. Has a weird middle finger of 850 0c line over D.C. and Carroll county and then below 0c east of there. That middle finger might be a sign of lower rates the lower temps east probably in death bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Someone with weatherbell please set us straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, packfan98 said: To piggy back on this, pivotal has the Kuchera ratio maps. I think it's pretty useless when trying to figure out if you are going to be getting really high ratios, but it can be useful for determining where mixing could occur. The maps can give you a broader picture instead of clicking on individual soundings all over the place, and can help compare an old run to a new model run. You can just hover the cursor over the area and it will give you the ratio. Anything less than 8:1 would surely be mixing. Here's hr 18 of the GFS as an example: Nice map! You can see the different "zones" pretty well. Looks like: 10-15 miles SE of DC perhaps mix and rain issues DC mix but still has to be periods of decent snow just west of DC stays probably mostly snow with some mix for sure and past bluemont, va good bet whole event is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: We're roughly T-6 from onset and still an wide spread in terms of solutions. Not really. 95 east mix 2-6". West of 95 6+". That's what the models have converged upon. It's easy to get caught up in little details and think they are huge differences at this point when in reality they make little difference in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 WxBell is stuck and isn't loading euro panels. SV anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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