Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CMC dryslots most of us after 6z except far NE zones. Heh, that's a big outlier but definitely don't want to see that come out with any other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: WSI GEM snow map has 10+ D.C. North and close to 20 in NEMD Again, does it account for FRZ/IP? Does it account for melting caused by said FRZ/IP mid-storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I take back what I said. Precip panels look like a dryslot but QPF panels tell a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 From GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ha. CMC is a frozen shellacking. Coldest run of the 12z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: From GFS Amazing how one corner of Arlington gets 6" and one gets 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's a good run IMO. When the heaviest precip is here DC proper is right on the line at the surface and 850 (might be a warm layer in there) but I don't see rain verbatim. Yea, worst case is a sleetfest for a time. When I'm fully expecting sleet (and I am with this one) it's actually a fun part of the storm. Makes a ruckus and has serious staying power as long as we don't torch in the days following. Which doesn't look like the case at all. The best advice I can give those who get sleet (and there will be a lot of us) is to just embrace it and enjoy it. Way better than a pile of rain. Which is still possible but seeming less likely until you get closer to SoMD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I don't think the "para NAM" from TT is actually the para NAM. Not sure what it is, but it doesn't line up well with the info available from NCEP. Here is the 48hr precip panel from the actual para NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: i love weather boards What would you think when you see this panel ending @ 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Amazing how one corner of Arlington gets 6" and one gets 2". Agreed. And from 1-2 inches near National Harbor to 6-7 Chevy Chase/Bethesda. That's maybe 5 miles as crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 WAA thump in GGEM is bigly. Matches RGEM. Really got to root hard for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ha. CMC is a frozen shellacking. Coldest run of the 12z suite so far. CMC has a warm bias except when its too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don't think the "para NAM" from TT is actually the para NAM. Not sure what it is, but it doesn't line up well with the info available from NCEP. Here is the 48hr precip panel from the actual para NAM. Wow. That looks way different from the maps I was seeing. And it is A LOT of precip out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ha. CMC is a frozen shellacking. Coldest run of the 12z suite so far. I thought that, but didn't want to say anything because I thought I was just seeing what I wanted to see. It's got sleet, sure..but its a fun run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don't think the "para NAM" from TT is actually the para NAM. Not sure what it is, but it doesn't line up well with the info available from NCEP. Here is the 48hr precip panel from the actual para NAM. You didn't click on the right one. It's the NAM-Hires http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/12/nam-hires_conus_048_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What would you think when you see this panel ending @ 12z? I don't trust any sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don't think the "para NAM" from TT is actually the para NAM. Not sure what it is, but it doesn't line up well with the info available from NCEP. Here is the 48hr precip panel from the actual para NAM. Unless I've missed it, TT doesn't have the para NAM. They have the 3km NAM which is the inner nest of the para NAM (like the 4km NAM is the inner nest of the current NAM). So, you are seeing the difference between the para NAM and the para 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: You didn't click on the right one. It's the NAM-Hires http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/12/nam-hires_conus_048_precip_p48.gif So which of the 13 NAM's did I post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: So which of the 13 NAM's did I post? You clicked on the 12-km Para NAM I think. TT has the 3-km nest version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Here's the 6 hour CMC QPF panels. 0z-6z / 6z-12z / 12z-18z. First image is mislabeled but it's timestamped. Very nice through 6z. On the wet side of guidance. Then pretty intense overnight through the corridor. Deform love at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What would you think when you see this panel ending @ 12z?Note the word instantaneous . Storm is wrapped by then on GGEM.Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12Z JMA 992 Just off of Ocean City. If anyone cares about that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is the one you were looking for, Bobchill: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 last minute change to colder by the models is a welcome sight and something that's been missing all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12Z JMA 992 Just off of Ocean City. If anyone cares about that model. why not. It has looked the same as all the other elite models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: last minute change to colder by the models is a welcome sight and something that's been missing all year As in trends or the pivot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: As in trends or the pivot? He's referring to a cold trend. Not the pivot. But Mitchnick - I'm not sure that a lot of guidance is heading substantially colder - if anything I think we've warmed a touch on a lot of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don't think the "para NAM" from TT is actually the para NAM. Not sure what it is, but it doesn't line up well with the info available from NCEP. Here is the 48hr precip panel from the actual para NAM. That is the 12k Para Nam, the one on TT is the new 3k higher resolution nest of the para NAM that is replacing the 4k version of the old 12k Nam. Ugh sorry hope I explained that good, so many NAM's its confusing. At least after the 15th it gets simpler and we will only have 2, the para becomes the new 12k parent NAM and the 3K becomes the high res, the old nam and 4k are discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, worst case is a sleetfest for a time. When I'm fully expecting sleet (and I am with this one) it's actually a fun part of the storm. Makes a ruckus and has serious staying power as long as we don't torch in the days following. Which doesn't look like the case at all. The best advice I can give those who get sleet (and there will be a lot of us) is to just embrace it and enjoy it. Way better than a pile of rain. Which is still possible but seeming less likely until you get closer to SoMD. Hoping we stay more Sleet down toward EZF and Spotsy. Rather than just go over to plain rain, 1 inch of Snow then 2 inches of sleet then 1 inch of snow on top would be a nice outcome down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What would you think when you see this panel ending @ 12z? Its ok BOB that map is misleading, but its because the GGEM uses a different metric to produce that map. For the GFS and most others I think it uses average precip rate over the period, but the GGEM uses what it is doing exactly right there. So at that moment DC is in a dryslot but was probably getting pounded by that band to the northeast most of the previous 6 hours and is likely about to get in on the deform just to the west. The GGEM looks bad because it happened to capture a bad moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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