H2O Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 temps crash back between 6z and 12z Tues. Looks like a period of sleet for DC then back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 0.3-0.4" before mixing by 2am (warm layer a touch lower than the NAM, but not a significant sensible weather effect). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: it went to 8-12" yesterday evening. Thanks. I totally missed it. I was surprised that they went with 6-10 initially. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFF drier than 6z. Most notably to the west and north areas. About the same in general with temps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Deform band looks nice... no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Maybe a little warmer. Still far colder than even the 12Z NAM. 850s stay below zero NW of 95 for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Not bad not bad at all, definitely will be stressful in the city though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS a wonderful icing on top of this historic winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The western gang won't like it. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: The western gang won't like it. I like it. I love it, but we all know what's going to happen. By the time this thing's all said and done, the NW crew will have 12-18" and the cities will have 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looking at the HRRR and other short range models, I sort of feel like the GFS is missing the southwestern extent of precip this run. Doesn't make sense based on other short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 gfs isnt really big for anyone on the east coast. anyway...its probably a useless model right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Looking at the HRRR and other short range models, I sort of feel like the GFS is missing the southwestern extent of precip this run. Doesn't make sense based on other short range models. Isn't that where we should be looking now anyway? I know we will look at Euro but after that it just short range and eyeballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Ji said: gfs isnt really big for anyone on the east coast. anyway...its probably a useless model right now lol 18-24" for NYC isn't really big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS not loading on Weatherbell right now, trying to get better snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 18-24" for NYC isn't really big? well i just saw a bunch of 15-20 amount that looked like MECS more than HECS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017031312&fh=54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 14Z HRRR would be an absolute crush job out here. I am hugging that until I find something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Wondering if I could get some help here. I know this is at the very end of the HRRR run. It is at this point that I notice the winds are now out of the northeast, would this help fix the upper levels going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: GFS not loading on Weatherbell right now, trying to get better snowmaps. enough with the snowmaps already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GFS not loading on Weatherbell right now, trying to get better snowmaps. I don't have wxbell so I'd like to see it. Keep posting those maps brotha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The snowfall maps from WPC look nice for DC westward... 70%+ for 4", 40% for 8", and 10% for 12" http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Warrior Bigfoot said: I love it, but we all know what's going to happen. By the time this thing's all said and done, the NW crew will have 12-18" and the cities will have 4-6". This. I'm in a favorable area for storms. Things will wobble but at the end of the day we'll see mostly snow and those that usually get morel, will. Those that usually mix or miss, will. It's hyperlocal experience that models don't account for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: That is my recollection also. 2 or 3 to 1. I read something a while ago that it ranges from 2-1 to 4-1 depending on factors like is the sleet mixed with freezing rain at all, and of course is the sleet partially mixed with snow, if the flakes do not totally melt but turn to slush bombs then refreeze that can have 4 to 1 ratios as they are chunky and thicker, and on the flip side if its 90% sleet with some rain mixed in and totally melted refrozen drops then its closer to 2-1. 3-1 is probably a good average as a general rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, mappy said: enough with the snowmaps already. Some of us don't have weatherbell so no I'd appreciate if he keeps posting them. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: Some of us don't have weatherbell so no I'd appreciate if he keeps posting them. Thanks! Unfortunately nobody will get any if Weatherbell continues to not load the GFS. I hear a few other sites are having trouble too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: Some of us don't have weatherbell so no I'd appreciate if he keeps posting them. Thanks! maybe just have a snow map thread...dump everything in there...no comments or context just snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GEM colder it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Here are the last three runs of the GFS. I'm pretty sure these maps don't count sleet or freezing rain as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 WSI GEM snow map has 10+ D.C. North and close to 20 in NEMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matzacski Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CMC is a QPF bomb. Much improved compared to last night's run (precip wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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