SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Define good thump 0.2-0.3 QPF, possibly more because the TT map has us snow still after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM East, slightly but noticeable. Is this a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The RGEM is well inland with the low compared to the NAM. Like 50 miles east - over eastern NC and delmarva, not over hatteras and just offshore like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM looks really good for the northern MD counties. Mix line runs more E/W than N/S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I wish I had 925's for the RGEM. It has the potential to be the biggest sleet storm in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I dont have QPF. But for DC 2-3 hours snow. 8-9 hours mix. 1 Hour of snow. How's the rgem been on mid levels this year? Doesn't it have a bias towards warm columns versus most other guidance?? I recall something about it doesn't handle the effects of dynamic cooling... Which this event should certainly have some decent dynamics working for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I wish I had 925's for the RGEM. It has the potential to be the biggest sleet storm in history. As in how much sleet? related question, would 12" of sleet be much worse than 12" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, PhineasC said: RGEM looks really good for the northern MD counties. Mix line runs more E/W than N/S. I was just going to say, it looks a lot better for those of us north of Baltimore. Still several hours of sleet at the height of the storm, but double digit totals look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I wish I had 925's for the RGEM. It has the potential to be the biggest sleet storm in history. That's a scary thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: As in how much sleet? related question, would 12" of sleet be much worse than 12" of snow? calm down. There won't be 12" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM has the low west of its previous locations, but appears to have moved the heaviest WAA precip east over the cities. I'll take the RGEM on the front and the para NAM on the back please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: RGEM looks really good for the northern MD counties. Mix line runs more E/W than N/S. Yeah. The usual spots get crushed on the run with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 IIRC- sleet is somewhere around a 2-1/3-1 ratio. So 1" qpf = 2-3" of sleet. I could be wrong. I had somewhere around 4" of sleet in Feb 07 but don't quote me on that. I'm old and that was 10 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wish I had 925's for the RGEM. It has the potential to be the biggest sleet storm in history. CMC precip type maps definitely suggest lots of sleet for almost the whole subforum. Even FZRA for D.C. But got to like the WAA heavy snow band moving over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: RGEM East, slightly but noticeable. Is this a trend? I do not see an east trend. It looks like it wobbles around a similar track, maybe even a little west around our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 12z RGEM really beefed up precip compared to 6z. I'll also post the "Freezing Rain" map so you can see how much might be a mix for your area. precip "Freezing Rain" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: IIRC- sleet is somewhere around a 2-1/3-1 ratio. So 1" qpf = 2-3" of sleet. I could be wrong. I had somewhere around 4" of sleet in Feb 07 but don't quote me on that. I'm old and that was 10 years ago. That is my recollection also. 2 or 3 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 14z HRRR is a bit skimpy on the front end with precip. Maybe 0.2" before the 2am changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I don't think I saw the 0z gfs para posted. It's look is much better for our sub-forum than the op! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think these ZR predictions will be overdone and in reality it'll be mostly Snow/Sleet but IF the ZR ends up being true, and we get upward of 0.5" ZR after the front end wet snow then the tree damage and power outages would likely be pretty severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, packfan98 said: The 12z RGEM really beefed up precip compared to 6z. I'll also post the "Freezing Rain" map so you can see how much might be a mix for your area. precip "Freezing Rain" It would help if they had a sleet map as well, because a lot of us who are north of the zr zones will be getting pinged for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 850 line a tick NW on the GFS through 3z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The GFS already seems different... at 6h! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 In digging for the answer to the "how does sleet accumulate per QPF" question, which I couldn't find, I did find this really great and lengthy pdf by Wes Junker. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snow2a/snow2a.pdf It's technical but totally relevant for this storm - how to forecast snowfall, water equivalent, pick out sleet and freezing rain, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS coming in line with with other guidance. A little warmer. Mixing imminent @ 6z in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Low is noticeably stronger and a touch further NE at hour 21. Seems to keep the 850s pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Precip blossoming in eastern NC looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS mixes at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Beautiful backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks colder for many at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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