NorthArlington101 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Beginning to see a clearer picture for the Metro... looking like an initial thump of 3-5", a sleetfest, then a deform with 1-3". Sounds wintry enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 inches of snow topped with 2 inches of sleet topped with 4 inches of snow isn't a terrible sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I edited the map to hr 31... its even more lol Yeah i think verbatim we pick up 4-8" in the deform band... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 wow...3k is still super juiced after the flip back to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm going to go ahead and accept the 3k NAM as fact. It's only a couple days away from being the new NAM. Let's see if it comes in like a Lion with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In many ways this storm seems to want to simply follow our climo textbook. We probably could have saved a lot of time and just made that call 3 days ago instead of over analyzing every single model known to man and even a few that arent known. Great post. It is amazing how these things ALWAYS seem to work out the same. Really the only major difference are the speed of the storm. Which then has an effect on total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: wow...3k is still super juiced after the flip back to snow... Yeah, I'm gonna ride that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very nice 2-3 hour stall on the 3k nam. Much stronger deform as well. Agree with matt. This is a thing to watch because it's the high ratio snow part of the storm. Ha. That back side looks great on the new NAM. Had it on the last two runs also to some degree, but this one is the best by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3k nam looks great and I think still shows the potential from upside. The good snows continue to shift southwest. Most of the reason the NAM looks better is more consolidation and better orientation of the shortwave. Would love support from the globals but very encouraging trends. Almost no break from initial WAA slug and CCB formation, which has also come east slightly.Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: wow...3k is still super juiced after the flip back to snow... I'm having some trouble with the colors on TT, it is trying to throw down 0.5" qpf after the morning switch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very nice 2-3 hour stall on the 3k nam. Much stronger deform as well. Agree with matt. This is a thing to watch because it's the high ratio snow part of the storm. Ignoring the precise total numbers on the snowfall maps (yeah, I know!!)...and just looking at the delta amount between ~12-18Z, would imply a few inches in there with the wrap-around and bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm a little surprised but of course pleased with the 42 nams run at 12z. 12z is starting off on the right foot. They have been the warmest so far and they just trended in our favor 12 hours before onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very nice 2-3 hour stall on the 3k nam. Much stronger deform as well. Agree with matt. This is a thing to watch because it's the high ratio snow part of the storm. It has a death band in the usual spot that eventually swings through the city...If correct, we'll be getting raked with +SN in the 8am -11am period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: wow...3k is still super juiced after the flip back to snow... Its kinda laughable... hr 24 on TT has DCA around 9"... then jump to 30 and DC gets an additional 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: lol Remember: that's snow + sleet. Applying a 10:1 ratio with sleet like TT is doing won't work out, but that's why the map looks so amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4K NAM is also okay... we pick up 4" on the frontside and switch to thundersleet and then get another couple on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: I'm having some trouble with the colors on TT, it is trying to throw down 0.5" qpf after the morning switch? I don't like the color gradations on there either (with aging eyes, lol!), but that kind of appears similar to what I saw in the snow maps. A few inches perhaps after the flip back from sleet, in those deformation bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Don't my bow out man. Some people just catch feelings really easy around here. The nams definitely improved which is great to see this close to game time. With the amount of trolls that slip in here when we're down made me naturally think he was one. We sorted it out and he's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 ridiculous..snows until 2 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: It has a death band in the usual spot that eventually swings through the city...If correct, we'll be getting raked with +SN in the 8am -11am period... My only worry is the light fluffy powder bomb might roll clean off the 83 trillion frozen ball bearings on my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: Remember: that's snow + sleet. Applying a 10:1 ratio with sleet like TT is doing won't work out, but that's why the map looks so amazing. Can't you just let us suspend reality for once! Stop with facts and science! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'm having some trouble with the colors on TT, it is trying to throw down 0.5" qpf after the morning switch? exactly..0.5 - 0.6 after flip back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: ridiculous..snows until 2 pm lol, i just saw it. If that happens, then the flip to sleet won't be as painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can't you just let us suspend reality for once! Stop with facts and science! my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: exactly..0.5 - 0.6 after flip back It hurt my eyes but I came up with the same thing. That snow should be at least 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Really rooting for you guys down here, especially after this winter. I think a lot of us lurk the MA/NE forums because often that's where the interesting weather is happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, high risk said: Remember: that's snow + sleet. Applying a 10:1 ratio with sleet like TT is doing won't work out, but that's why the map looks so amazing. I agree.... but I still think those maps are useful for comparisons from previous runs, even if they shouldn't be taken at face value. The fact that a lot more of us get 1"+ of frozen QPF than we did in the 0z run is very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: my bad. How do you feel about the maps that take sleet into account? I've never seen those before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: my bad. Of course I'm joking. I wonder if we can make a run of a substantial sleet accumulation...like 3" of snow, then 2" of sleet then 4" of snow on top of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ha Weatherbell Para NAM with 20 inches at my house. Not holding my breath! That said, it's a definitely improvement from last run. Let's see the same the next couple of runs and who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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