SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4k NAM has a pocket of colder 850s over DC around 2z, probably indicative of strong banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z NAM Para looks to flip back to snow around DC proper and to the NW around 12z as 850s push to the SE. Still a decent bit of precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, EB89 said: Seems like a good shift SE with heavier snow totals. Unfortunately those maps seem to count sleet as snow with 10:1 ratios, so they aren't that useful for those of us who are mixing at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR still gives us heavy snow at 2 AM, and it looks like it has a few more hours worth of heavy snow to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: 4k NAM has a pocket of colder 850s over DC around 2z, probably indicative of strong banding. Bingo. NAM is more aggressive with the WAA thump, which is only good news for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 4K impressively cold at the surface...DC flips at around 1 am Ridiculously heavy sleet too ~6-8Z, going by the radar simulation on TT (haven't seen beyond 08Z yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I am really curious to see how well the models to with today's high temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Unfortunately those maps seem to count sleet as snow with 10:1 ratios, so they aren't that useful for those of us who are mixing at the height of the storm. Here's the Freezing rain map from Pivotal. Obviously this would be sleet instead of freezing rain, but it should give an indication of the areas the nam is seeing mixing. The nam nailed the SE storm in January with the warm nose that no other model had. I lost a lot of faith in the RGEM with that storm. I will bow out now per Stormtracker's suggestion. I love tracking these storms and will enjoy from afar. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I would definitely not call the NAM more progressive, just more consolidated. Much better h5 pass and less spread vorticity. Coming in to line with the other models.Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nam has moved towards the globals basically every run. I could see the globals (euro in particular) shift a little east today. I'm not sure that will make a whole lot of difference either way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 4K impressively cold at the surface...DC flips at around 1 am 3km seems to be about the same. Between 1-2am in DC. Looks like it is just going to pound us with sleet with the feed from the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4k has DCA at or below 32 from 10pm on...I think probably a little too cold.....we'd probably go back to snow in the 7-9 am range, but main storm over by 9.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Here's the Freezing rain map from Pivotal. Obviously this would be sleet instead of freezing rain, but it should give an indication of the areas the nam is seeing mixing. The nam nailed the SE storm in January with the warm nose that no other model had. I lost a lot of faith in the RGEM with that storm. I will bow out now per Stormtracker's suggestion. I love tracking these storms and will enjoy from afar. Good luck to all! Hope that's true. I'm just barely to the west of that ice accumulation, so I would think I'd be all snow and get dumped on if that's true. 95 looks great there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 3km seems to be about the same. Between 1-2am in DC. Looks like it is just going to pound us with sleet with the feed from the SE. It's less cold at the surface too, which gives me pause as to how much accumulating snow I can get before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: Hope that's true. I'm just barely to the west of that ice accumulation, so I would think I'd be all snow and get dumped on if that's true. 95 looks great there. Agreed, that verbatim would save me from a lot of grief. I fully expect to mix though, but a driving sleet storm would add a fun, icy layer to my sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 In many ways this storm seems to want to simply follow our climo textbook. We probably could have saved a lot of time and just made that call 3 days ago instead of over analyzing every single model known to man and even a few that arent known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4km NAM looks like 3-5/4-6 by 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Here's the Freezing rain map from Pivotal. Obviously this would be sleet instead of freezing rain, but it should give an indication of the areas the nam is seeing mixing. The nam nailed the SE storm in January with the warm nose that no other model had. I lost a lot of faith in the RGEM with that storm. I will bow out now per Stormtracker's suggestion. I love tracking these storms and will enjoy from afar. Good luck to all! Don't my bow out man. Some people just catch feelings really easy around here. The nams definitely improved which is great to see this close to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 4k has DCA at or below 32 from 10pm on...I think probably a little too cold.....we'd probably go back to snow in the 7-9 am range, but main storm over by 9.... New hotness NAM has a nice deform band still around after the flip back to snow. That's critical. Something we need to watch today on the short range progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I will take the NAM Para please. NAM: NAM Para NAM NAM Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z PARA NAM is super ridiculous for us... if only it was believable... but isn't supposed to be the next NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 All the NAM's seem to improving and adding more frozen precip to the east. Encouraging for everyone 95 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, EB89 said: I will take the NAM Para please. NAM: NAM Para NAM NAM Para Whoa.... 2.1" of QPF is a motherlode of precip. Still, I doubt those maps distinguish between snow and sleet, so I can't get too excited yet, as much as I want to see 18" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nice deform band on the 3K Tuesday morning... adds another couple inches of snow to our 5" of snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Very nice 2-3 hour stall on the 3k nam. Much stronger deform as well. Agree with matt. This is a thing to watch because it's the high ratio snow part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I am going to pretend the 3K snow map is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: New hotness NAM has a nice deform band still around after the flip back to snow. That's critical. Something we need to watch today on the short range progs. Yeah, just saw that...right around 12-13Z. Looks like it hangs on a bit later to some snow continuing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: lol That's half sleet... still not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, snjókoma said: That's half sleet... still not bad. I edited the map to hr 31... its even more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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