yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hmmm... 12z NAM must be coming in fast and in a hurry this evening because TT maps for snow accum have our area at 2-4" by 03z... believeable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM H5 at 15 is faster with SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Old NAM looks good with the front end thump for everyone. Awesome deform over the Shenandoah Valley for hours. DC gets into the deform love starting at 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It is subtle, but the NAM is colder. Still goes to sleet in the DC beltway area, but not flirting with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM is better than 6z... the low is slightly SE...probably makes the most difference for the western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 yeah, the front end before the changeover looks better, but the changeover is at 18h ~3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM is looking good! Or, better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thanks, but we don't need some ne'er do well from NC giving us updates on a terrible ensemble model. You are welcome. I don't like the SREF's either. However, the 12z nam looks much better than 6z. Slightly better 850's and more precip gets in there before any potential changeover. Through 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: NAM looks like 0.3-0.4" before the flip just after midnight. At least that's IWM's take on the precip type. Interesting...flip to more sleet or all rain? Saw Deck Pic mentioned the latest RAP had a similar "flip" with good precip before then, though sounds like the NAM is a bit earlier on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: It is subtle, but the NAM is colder. Still goes to sleet in the DC beltway area, but not flirting with rain. That's the 12k, right? That raises hopes that 3k and Para 12k might be better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It is subtle, but the NAM is colder. Still goes to sleet in the DC beltway area, but not flirting with rain. That's what I was curious about...if things have to flip, would rather sleet or sleet/snow than going to all cold rain for a few hours. ETA: I think most of us in and around the 95 corridor are resigned to some kind of change over almost regardless of anything. But hope to maximize as best as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: That's the 12k, right? That raises hopes that 3k and Para 12k might be better! Yes. Acknowledging that we are doing play-by-play of a model that is going to be retired soon and that we really want to be looking at the higher-res cousins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: You are welcome. I don't like the SREF's either. However, the 12z nam looks much better than 6z. Slightly better 850's and more precip gets in there before any potential changeover. Through 18 I could be wrong, but I think we have people who actually live here looking at the models for our region. If we need an assist, we'll let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12k NAM looks a lot better for MBY and those of us in Fairfax County. At least it doesn't flip us to rain. Still jackpots those West of us, but don't they always jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yes. Acknowledging that we are doing play-by-play of a model that is going to be retired soon and that we really want to be looking at the higher-res cousins. Which NAM should we be looking at 3K or 4K? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Well, at least we don't go to plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, at least we don't go to plain rain Yeah - I consider it a win...hopefully the cousins come in better and maybe this is the end of the NW trend of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It is subtle, but the NAM is colder. Still goes to sleet in the DC beltway area, but not flirting with rain. Yeah, the low is slightly east of 6z, at least as it hit's the NC/VA border. I'm talking about the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z NAM Para looks more sleety during the WAA thump compared to the regular 12z NAM. 850 0C isotherm bisects MoCo north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We probably flip back in DC around 8-9 am, not sure how much precip we have left though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Which NAM should we be looking at 3K or 4K? Probably 3km since it will be operational soon, but I don't think many of us know it's biases yet. The 12z op NAM is a snow to sleet storm. We lose the sounding from 800 to 850. Still, no rain and the surface stays at or below freezing. Nice winter event and good for closings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: 12k NAM looks a lot better for MBY and those of us in Fairfax County. At least it doesn't flip us to rain. Still jackpots those West of us, but don't they always jackpot? yes. It looks better for W PWC as well. I don't think we go to straight rain. but cannot afford a west jump that's for sure. I'd be happy with 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Coarser resolution NAM has a warm layer at 800mb that gets as far west as FDK early tomorrow. But cold below it. Looks like ripping sleet verbatim. But as MN said, the high res versions are more worth our time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Lots better than past 6-7 runs. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017031306&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=164 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Coarser resolution NAM has a warm layer at 800mb that gets as far west as FDK early tomorrow. But cold below it. Looks like ripping sleet verbatim. But as MN said, the high res versions are more worth our time here. Ripping sleet is right. 06z-12z would be all sleet, with 0.7-0.9" qpf across the DC Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4K impressively cold at the surface...DC flips at around 1 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Coarser resolution NAM has a warm layer at 800mb that gets as far west as FDK early tomorrow. But cold below it. Looks like ripping sleet verbatim. But as MN said, the high res versions are more worth our time here. 12z 4km NAM has it ripping snow in our area 00z to 02z (as far as it out right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Seems like a good shift SE with heavier snow totals. Edit: Or should I say winter precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Ripping sleet is right. 06z-12z would be all sleet, with 0.7-0.9" qpf across the DC Beltway. Sounds Feb. 2007-ish...though maybe not quite as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Yeah - I consider it a win...hopefully the cousins come in better and maybe this is the end of the NW trend of the low. It would have been a really big red flag for I-95 if the NAM (which was always on the NW envelope of guidance and actually performed best with the R/S line...heh) stayed course or pumped even further NW at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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