nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GGEM QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 CMC is ridiculous http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017031200/gem_z500_mslp_us_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: Final GFS. Looks similar to the 18z GEFS, complete with a Baltimore County-area jackpot. That jackpot only adds a few inches compared to the southern metros. Epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: Final GFS. Looks similar to the 18z GEFS, complete with a Baltimore County-area jackpot. Is that seriously a 17" marker over Baltimore? Mercy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Canadian. Surface in high 20s the entire time. Never even close to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Cmc nukes us early. Main event is mostly over by 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This is going to be one of those storms where I get like 8 or 9 inches and am jealous as hell because 15 miles to my east has 18. It happens from time to time. And after this horrid Winter I need to keep that in perspective and enjoy whatever I get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I noticed that. I only pick up .1 over those 9 hours though. At least it should keep the cloud cover in place all day. Look at the surface winds. They go back to east ahead of the second low and there is up slope in the Catoctins., especially near the PA border. Best of all, some of it falls after sundown Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 By the time it gets there, CMC crosses Montauk with a 977mb storm. Talk about rapid intensification. Wonder if CMC is able to stay all snow for us because of that deepening, rather than its actually track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Single digits Thurs morning just outside the cities. What's the record for the 16th of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc nukes us early. Main event is mostly over by 2am. are you sure? I'm seeing us in heavy snow still at 12z Tuesday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017031200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This is going to be one of those storms where I get like 8 or 9 inches and am jealous as hell because 15 miles to my east has 18. It happens from time to time. And after this horrid Winter I need to keep that in perspective and enjoy whatever I get Yeah - if the GEM gradient verifies, would be a tough pill for the Winchester folks.....hoping that doesn't play out quite that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Guys, watch the qpf to keep trending and expanding upward and westward lol. Unreal tonight got me pumped! What is the main difference people are seeing with the various models? Is is the southern stream moving slower, less ns interaction, more phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: are you sure? I'm seeing us in heavy snow still at 12z Tuesday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017031200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png Yeah it has us with around 2 feet of snow. There's no way it's over by 2 am unless the rates are just unfathomable or it starts super early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Warm tears of joy flow down my cheek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow! What a spectacular start to the 00Z suite tonight! Total nuke bomb, especially the CMC, and to think how far east and drier it was just the other day. Let's hope the Ukie and Euro round out an impressive night. Interesting to note that as shown on the GFS and CMC, this would be reminiscent of the 2011 Commutageddon storm (the original Psuhoffman event!) but would be on a much bigger scale if it goes down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 People take the CMC guidance seriously but dismiss the NAM 48 hours from its start? And it has been very consistent? Thank doesn't seem logical. I could see dismissing at 60+, but now? Maybe so, but the Canadian? It's liable to have an apps runner by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: are you sure? I'm seeing us in heavy snow still at 12z Tuesday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017031200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png That's the averaged precipitation rate over the past six hours, so its not necessarily an accurate portrayal of the current condition modeled. However, I would think that it lasts longer than that as we have 8" at 06z and 20 at 12z.. so unless we get 12" in 2 hours the heavy snow extends beyond 2 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This snowmap is from the 00z GGEM also, but its from the AmWx model center https://www.americanwx.com/wow/model_center_v4/get_orig_img.php?model=ggem&run_time=00z&run_hour=78&map=MA¶m=totsnow&init=&valid=&ts=20170311 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc nukes us early. Main event is mostly over by 2am. You sure about that? Isn't this panel from 2am to 8am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Single digits Thurs morning just outside the cities. What's the record for the 16th of March? with all the early foliage due to the recent high temperatures, I wonder how much leaf kill that would cause? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, snjókoma said: That's the averaged precipitation rate over the past six hours, so its not necessarily an accurate portrayal of the current condition modeled. However, I would think that it lasts longer than that as we have 8" at 06z and 20 at 12z.. so unless we get 12" in 2 hours the heavy snow extends beyond 2 AM. yeah, but it's definitely not over by 2am tho..more like 7 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 My mistake. Ive been clicking way too many panels. Cmc is a sundown to sunrise nuking. The lightning should help us see in the dark though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: People take the CMC guidance seriously but dismiss the NAM 48 hours from its start? And it has been very consistent? Thank doesn't seem logical. I could see dismissing at 60+, but now? Maybe so, but the Canadian? It's liable to have an apps runner by tomorrow. When the CMC and GFS and UKIE and Euro are all showing similar solutions and the NAM is out on a limb, yes, people take the first group seriously. As they always should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC is ridiculous http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017031200/gem_z500_mslp_us_11.png PSUHoffman kept talking about how the JMA wasnt backing down from its strong storm it was showing earlier when all the models went marcus dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Single digits Thurs morning just outside the cities. What's the record for the 16th of March? DCA 15 IAD 13 BWI 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is AFTER the main event overnight tues/wed. Lol. Those upper lows always have to be watched. It even tries to pop another surface feature this run. That isn't shocking. It's a darn good h5 pass. If the atmosphere wasn't so used up at that point it probably would have popped a good storm there Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Ji said: PSUHoffman kept talking about how the JMA wasnt backing down from its strong storm it was showing earlier when all the models went marcus dry You love the 18z JMA, don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Kuchera Snows 30" for NE of Philly with the Canadian. I would upload the picture, but it keeps on failing to upload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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