peribonca Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Pretty amazing that it's supposed to start snowing in 11 hours and precip is all the way in Florida/Illinois. I couldn't even drive there in that time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 TWC's map is weird. 8-12 for Baltimore, which is bullish but matches well with a lot of local forecasts, but only 8-12 for NYC and Philly. Seems very odd. I was going to post something about thundersnow. I guess that's pretty much off the table now? I remember people being real excited about us getting some insane snow rates and thunder snow a day or two ago. I think I even saw a GFS output where we got like a foot of snow in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: TWC's map is weird. 8-12 for Baltimore, which is bullish but matches well with a lot of local forecasts, but only 8-12 for NYC and Philly. Seems very odd. I was going to post something about thundersnow. I guess that's pretty much off the table now? I remember people being real excited about us getting some insane snow rates and thunder snow a day or two ago. I think I even saw a GFS output where we got like a foot of snow in 3 hours. It moved west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Try this http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbwi Edit: 6z not out yet, sorry Someone posted this in another forum. It might be helpful http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/thicknesscriteria/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr looks juiced.. Can't complain. While <32h is NAM's wheelhouse, we are getting into HRRR's wheelhouse now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 SREF plumes are out for 9z...Unfortunately, doesn't look good for the DC metro. Down to 3.95 on the mean with precip increased to 1.52. Mixed bag it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah H triple R looks great, but like Mitch said, doesn't it always at this time? I mean I'd love for that run to be right. If we're still hanging on to snow at 2am, it's a win, but those pinks are coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: SREF plumes are out for 9z...Unfortunately, doesn't look good for the DC metro. Down to 3.95 on the mean with precip increased to 1.52. Mixed bag it looks like. How's it look for NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah H triple R looks great, but like Mitch said, doesn't it always at this time? I mean I'd love for that run to be right. If we're still hanging on to snow at 2am, it's a win, but those pinks are coming I was gonna say, the HRRR is 2-3" for DC with the mix line on the doorstep and the 2m temps increasing. It frankly seems to be in line with the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Was the 00z PARA GFS discussed in this thread yet? Cause I would take it and run... if only it was believeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Maybe a few rumbles of thunder in the far NW zones.... I love that I am included in that. (Just barely). But that tells me they like my chances of getting into the heaviest banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah H triple R looks great, but like Mitch said, doesn't it always at this time? I mean I'd love for that run to be right. If we're still hanging on to snow at 2am, it's a win, but those pinks are coming I agree. If the low headed northeast from there, we'd have a shot, but it's going to move N or NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It would be cool for once if things broke our way as the event played out. NYC has had a number of storms in the past where they are forecasted to get little and they end up getting a huge snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z RAP flips DC around 3-4 am. Wet run. 1" QPF in DC through 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Was the 00z PARA GFS discussed in this thread yet? Cause I would take it and run... if only it was believeable The para is stellar, but it feels like it is on an island at this point. I love the look of the 850 temps at 12z, really shows where it is pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM has slightly lower heights for us at 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 12z RAP flips DC around 3-4 am. Wet run. 1" QPF in DC through 5 am Flips DC to sleet? And that sounds good.. sounds like 3-6/4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Us Springfield/Burke Folks might be able to hold off even longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Despite my morning melt in the banter thread, I still think there's a chance this ends up further east. that's called a wishcast 35 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Well, when was the last time we had a March storm with this kind of cold? Lots of single digits and teens north of us. This isn't our usual borderline situation where we are at 35 already hoping that some chilly 32 degree air in Upstate NY somehow makes it down in time... As this storm kicks up it has some cold air to tap. the problem with that is the screaming E and SE flow aloft; it's not tapping cold air to the N until it passes and then you're looking for wrap around. but that wrap around is more realistic up near you as long as the low isn't tucked too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I love that I am included in that. (Just barely). But that tells me they like my chances of getting into the heaviest banding. I'm pretty excited for this one....It's not very common that these kind of dynamics extend into our zones. I'm usually sweating the fringe but I feel pretty good where we sit right now. I sense a sleepless night ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 12z RAP flips DC around 3-4 am. Wet run. 1" QPF in DC through 5 am And it has the low over eastern NC headed north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The para is stellar, but it feels like it is on an island at this point. I love the look of the 850 temps at 12z, really shows where it is pounding. Legitimately curious about this statement, why does it feel like it's on an island? The GFS and Euro both somewhat support that type of setup too, don't they? As does the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It would be cool for once if things broke our way as the event played out. NYC has had a number of storms in the past where they are forecasted to get little and they end up getting a huge snowstorm. Unfortunately that's probably because it was progged more offshore and ended up coming west. I think PSU mention yesterday or day before that unfortunately the blocking deteriorated a little too early. Otherwise a little more blocking and we'd probably have a slightly better track and not one trying to hug inside the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Trough looks slightly more progressive on the 12z NAM, hour 14 probably heavy snow for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 For those interested, NCAR runs an experimental convection-allowing ensemble prediction system which can be found here: https://ensemble.ucar.edu It is an ensemble of 3-km models with many different "winter weather" products available on the page. Here is a sample of snowfall rates exceeding 2"/hr: More information on their EPS can be found in this WAF paper: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0103.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Legitimately curious about this statement, why does it feel like it's on an island? The GFS and Euro both somewhat support that type of setup too, don't they? As does the HRRR? I'm a bit parochial here, I think the para looks like the coldest model which keeps me snow. Without soundings, I can't really tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: I'm a bit parochial here, I think the para looks like the coldest model which keeps me snow. Without soundings, I can't really tell though. I feel you, I just want to make sure I'm not missing something, because one thing I've noticed is that it seems a lot of people are really holding onto those bad NAM runs and sort of inflating them into something more than they are. I haven't seen much talk about how the GFS, Euro, and HRRR all seem to agree as does the parallel NAMs. I know people are intensely nervous about this storm, but it's not like the potential for a lot of snow is some outside bank shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, packfan98 said: SREF plumes are out for 9z...Unfortunately, doesn't look good for the DC metro. Down to 3.95 on the mean with precip increased to 1.52. Mixed bag it looks like. Thanks, but we don't need some ne'er do well from NC giving us updates on a terrible ensemble model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM looks like 0.3-0.4" before the flip just after midnight. At least that's IWM's take on the precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 12z RAP flips DC around 3-4 am. Wet run. 1" QPF in DC through 5 am That's actually a little better than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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