Kmlwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Joshfsu123 said: Looking forward to the 12z runs - DC needs a 25 mile shift east with most guidance. Interested to see if the GFS holds firm and if any other models join with it (and if he EURO holds last night's decent run). Gonna be a nowcast event but just 25 miles could make a huge difference for DC area. With the trend recently I'd say it's fairly safe to say that DC is going to have some serious mixing. RGEM is usually pretty good at this range. Still think this storm will be pretty high impact most areas but DC is pretty precarious at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: With the trend recently I'd say it's fairly safe to say that DC is going to have some serious mixing. RGEM is usually pretty good at this range. Still think this storm will be pretty high impact most areas but DC is pretty precarious at this time. RGEM has been awful our "winter storms". Was the farthest NW outlier on 1/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Joshfsu123 said: Looking forward to the 12z runs - DC needs a 25 mile shift east with most guidance. Interested to see if the GFS holds firm and if any other models join with it (and if he EURO holds last night's decent run). Gonna be a nowcast event but just 25 miles could make a huge difference for DC area. Yeah. I think an all, or mostly, snow event is off the table for us now that even the GFS doesn't show that but I could see something like the 3k NAM which would be 2-4 followed be mix/rain and then another inch tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 A 25 mile east nudge at the last minute is definitely not impossible. But then again, east coast storms often like to nudge west at the last minute. Definitely going to be "interesting" to watch the short range guidance like the HRRR try to pin down the areas that mix or changeover. Dual-pol will be cool to watch for mixing...hard to believe before dual-pol we had to rely on potentially inaccurate ground truth and guesses on rain/snow radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah. I think an all, or mostly, snow event is off the table for us now that even the GFS doesn't show that but I could see something like the 3k NAM which would be 2-4 followed be mix/rain and then another inch tomorrow AM. Oh yeah, agreed. Really, any small shift east would help us stay sleet (instead of rain) or keep the switch over shorter... that's my goal. So hopefully we can get some tracks like GFS and things end up shorter with the switchover. My area is a little higher elevation and about a degree cooler than surrounding area... so maybe that'll help. LOL. I'm expecting a couple inches on the front, a lot of mixing and raining (freezing rain? in between) and another inch or two at the end. A nice storm and considering this year, I'm just happy to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR will be my watch of the day. Even though I wasn't living here I was watching the HRRR for the historic snowstorm last year and it was absolute money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Joshfsu123 said: Oh yeah, agreed. Really, any small shift east would help us stay sleet (instead of rain) or keep the switch over shorter... that's my goal. So hopefully we can get some tracks like GFS and things end up shorter with the switchover. My area is a little higher elevation and about a degree cooler than surrounding area... so maybe that'll help. LOL. I'm expecting a couple inches on the front, a lot of mixing and raining (freezing rain? in between) and another inch or two at the end. A nice storm and considering this year, I'm just happy to get something. Yeah it's been fun to track this one for sure. It would be amazing if the 12z runs shifted this thing 50 miles east but it seems like everything's been trending in the other direction for 24-36 hours. The Euro snowmap has an impressively tight gradient, 14 inches for northern Montgomery county and like 3 inches for southern PG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I feel like a lot of people would be happy with this evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 For those who have 'Faith in the Flakes'. Here's Justin Berk's very aggressive call. Hope he is right but I think through the DC/Balt corridor sleet will take a huge chunk of those totals down in the 6-12 zone and the 3-6 ranges will see mostly sleet and rain with some front end snow. Here's hoping I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 DCA (My interpretation) 06 UT GFS vs 00 UT EURO Differences in sensible weather between 06 UT GFS and 00 UT Euro are not that large. Both show the event starting around 8 PM with surface temperatures in mid 30s and 850 temperatures near -4C. Both show quick transition from rain to moderate snow with ~2" by 2 AM. Both show 850 temperatures warming through the night and peaking around 5 AM at 34-35 F. Both show maximum QPF between 2 and 8 AM 0.32/0.38 for Euro and 0.48/0.43 for GFS. Yes, the most intense rates will occur when 850 temperatures are highest. Some snow, lots of sleet, some rain. However, transition to all snow seems likely by 8 AM. Both show surface temperatures dropping from 35 to 32 between 8 PM and 2 AM, rising to 34 by 5 AM, and then falling to 32 by 11 AM. Euro shows 2 PM highs of ~35 while GFS holds highs down to 33. Both show moderate snow from 8 to noon or so (perhaps 1-3") Both show occasional light snow/flurries from noon to 8 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We don't need the HRRR posted every hour, people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I feel like a lot of people would be happy with this evolution. Only problem is the hrrr always looks good at the end of its run and then reality kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Posted this in banter, but OK -- I have to get some much needed real work done. If some cleaning up is needed and one of the other mods isn't around, please @ me here and I will get a notification pop up to let me know. Please try and moderate yourselves! Think before you post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just wanted to add that I've seen many maps that actually closely mirror Justin Berk's. I also saw basically every local station's futurecast this morning and none of them have mixing in Baltimore. There was some brief mixing in DC. I was surprised by that, though I know they aren't always the most reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Here is Fox 5 DC. If this plays out like that, I'd be utterly shocked. I'll pray a bit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Only problem is the hrrr always looks good at the end of its run and then reality kicks in. Yup. I think our fates are pretty much sealed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: For those who have 'Faith in the Flakes'. Here's Justin Berk's very aggressive call. Hope he is right but I think through the DC/Balt corridor sleet will take a huge chunk of those totals down in the 6-12 zone and the 3-6 ranges will see mostly sleet and rain with some front end snow. Here's hoping I am wrong. Move the SE portion of the 3-6 swath a bit north and narrow the 6-12 swath and I don't think that map looks too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Just wanted to add that I've seen many maps that actually closely mirror Justin Berk's. I also saw basically every local station's futurecast this morning and none of them have mixing in Baltimore. There was some brief mixing in DC. I was surprised by that, though I know they aren't always the most reliable. Don't get me wrong because I do like Berk. But he relies heavily on the CMC for his forecasts which quite often burns him. As far as the local stations and their forecasts. Quite often they are one step behind when it comes to what the models are showing. Which is a good thing in the longer ranges because you don't want to follow every wobble they make. But when you get within 24 hours and much of the guidance is slipping away that delay is much more noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 29 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I feel like a lot of people would be happy with this evolution. Do you have a link? I see many HRRR links but I like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Newest map from LWX...looks good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, AdamHLG said: Do you have a link? I see many HRRR links but I like this one. It's from WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I am going to put it out there that the northern energy portion of this storm will push the coastal portion further east and we will get hit harder than currently predicted more in line with what was predicted yesterday and what you seeing in the 3K HRRR run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: Do you have a link? I see many HRRR links but I like this one. Here you go. You have to choose the region: http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Despite my morning melt in the banter thread, I still think there's a chance this ends up further east. Not a high likelihood given that we're under 24 from onset, but a 25-50 mile variation in track wouldn't be outrageous despite how it'd impact sensible wx in our corner of the globe. What happens in the midlevels though is going to be more important IMO. The "fun" in this storm is we really don't have a solid sense of what'll happen along 95. Yeah, with most snow storms there is always uncertainly, but I feel like this one it really is a big question mark, anything from 0-15 inches is a good guess for the big cities. I have never seen such a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Where are the warmest water temps on the coast....that's the path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 One potential "wildcard", particularly given the season and warm SSTs is how offshore convection could impact the storm. It could tend to pull the low farther east, but it also could rob some moisture inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 My forecast for the 81 corridor: Harrisburg, PA: 16 Carlisle, PA: 15 Hagerstown, MD: 15 Martinsburg, WV: 15 Winchester, VA: 13 Woodstock, VA: 11 Harrisonburg, VA: 6 Roanoake, VA: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Well, when was the last time we had a March storm with this kind of cold? Lots of single digits and teens north of us. This isn't our usual borderline situation where we are at 35 already hoping that some chilly 32 degree air in Upstate NY somehow makes it down in time... As this storm kicks up it has some cold air to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Maybe a few rumbles of thunder in the far NW zones.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: The cold is certainly legit, but even that might not be enough for folks along and just east of 95 to produce here. Remember a few days when none of us were worried about temps? lol This has been a fascinating setup at least. Really interested to see how that southern low cranks today. I think for us near the cities, we will need the WAA to over perform. I think thats key. the NAMs all seem to have a pretty uneventful WAA and we are stuck waiting for the deform when temps crash. That to me is a recipe for disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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