PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 If you blend the euro/gfs/nam you basically get: dc proper 3-5" tysons-leesburg 6-8" leesburg and west 8-15" fredrick and Hagerstown areas/north 14-22 Its a fairly common progression so I guess we should know what to expect more or less once this starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's HRRR time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 For those of us along 95, feeling high bust potential. Is that warranted? I'm suddenly not feeling the love after just now catching up from the overnight crew. I mean I guess I can live with a GFS/Euro blend, but is it right? I don't know. I better get some coffee in me. Long day ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6z parallel NAM is super wet (2"+ for D.C.) but a sleet/frz rain fest. It mixes back to Loudoun County and north into MoCo and Frederick Counties. D.C. obviously takes longer to change back over than NW though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: For those of us along 95, feeling high bust potential. Is that warranted? I'm suddenly not feeling the love after just now catching up from the overnight crew. I mean I guess I can live with a GFS/Euro blend, but is it right? I don't know. I better get some coffee in. Long day ahead. Yes. While I would expect to wake up to a few inches in dc, I would not be surprised to wake up to cold rain and clear streets - even if nothing changes in the 12z models. This will be a nowcasting event near i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: For those of us along 95, feeling high bust potential. Is that warranted? I'm suddenly not feeling the love after just now catching up from the overnight crew. I mean I guess I can live with a GFS/Euro blend, but is it right? I don't know. I better get some coffee in me. Long day ahead. Yes. I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Sleet fest is way preferable for a changeover than rain. Wasn't one of the analogs for this storm popping up Feb 07? I wasn't here then but you all tell me that was a really memorable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 That Hrrr radar looks like a beast. Looks more healthy on the east side. If it's not too much to ask I just want 4 inches of snow with 2 inches of sleet and an inch of mashed potatoes over it. The Sleet bomb is fun also as long as you get some snow under it. Want to stay away from liquid. That would ruin everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Experimental HRRR looks pretty good. Snow to sleet to snow. 6"ish in the city with 8-15" north. Of course that is snowfall, not accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6z RGEM tracks it again from the NC sound to just off the Delmarva. Surface and 925s hold but 850s (and probably 925-800 if I had to guess without full column) are gone by 6z. We change back over to snow at the end. Probably 1-2" followed by sleet followed by another 2-3" of snow as it had a nice little deform going through. This is for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: That Hrrr radar looks like a beast. Looks more healthy on the east side. If it's not too much to ask I just want 4 inches of snow with 2 inches of sleet and an inch of mashed potatoes over it. The Sleet bomb is fun also as long as you get some snow under it. Want to stay away from liquid. That would ruin everything. I think west of 28 in PWC will be ok to stay sleet and snow. In between dicey and east of fall line will go to rain for a time. Just my 2 cents having lived here for 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6z RGEM tracks it again from the NC sound to just off the Delmarva. Surface and 925s hold but 850s (and probably 925-800 if I had to guess without full column) are gone by 6z. We change back over to snow at the end. Probably 1-2" followed by sleet followed by another 2-3" of snow as it had a nice little deform going through. This is for DC.What about 15 miles west of the city?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: What about 15 miles west of the city? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 850 goes back to Leesburg-ish so there'd be a mix west of the city. Obviously further west you are, less time spent mixing. But even Fairfax on the RGEM would see a sustained period of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'd be ecstatic if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I created a thread for obs/nowcasting. Model stuff stays in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I like Ava quite a bit, but what models is she basing that off of? Is that Euro/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 LWX increased accumulation forecasts in N Balto Co. and Carroll Co. Looking for 9 to 17. As everyone knows, 50 miles either way with the low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 06z GFS is money for Westminster (and places NW). Not paying attention to their snow output, but 1.7 QPF is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4K NAM distributes the precip. fairly evenly with a little lolli up in Parrs Ridge world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: 06z GFS is money for Westminster (and places NW). Not paying attention to their snow output, but 1.7 QPF is awesome. Any chance you can provide BWI output? Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Any chance you can provide BWI output? Please? here you go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 52 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Tough to go wrong with a GFS-Euro blend Sounds good to me. I'm out in Frederick so I was hoping for that answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Any chance you can provide BWI output? Please? Try this http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbwi Edit: 6z not out yet, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Is the 0z Para GFS even worth discussing? It looks a bit better for D.C. and the western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Between these two depictions, it seems many will get some sleet mixing NW and rain/sleet SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Most had better hope for that good front end dump. Many may have mixing from 6Z to 12Z. Based on Hi Rez NAM, this is the amount of snow to come after heights crash (part two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3K NAM maps. I am posting the worst panel for the R/S line. Places under it have been under it for a few hours by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yet again it's going to be really nice to have the dual-pol radar. Before dual-pol mixing lines were guesses and ground truth. Now we have a huge piece of technology to aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looking forward to the 12z runs - DC needs a 25 mile shift east with most guidance. Interested to see if the GFS holds firm and if any other models join with it (and if he EURO holds last night's decent run). Gonna be a nowcast event but just 25 miles could make a huge difference for DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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