Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM 12K is even worse, looks to be over the bay at 29 as a 994 MB LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 When all is said and done after all the negative model runs last night--warmer air, westward ticks---it is nice to see that the NWS 4:00 am update still "clings" 6-10 just west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3km nam looks better than the other 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TERPhD Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Ltrain said: 3km nam looks better than the other 2. I'd definitely take this. I wonder if the higher resolution of the 3km NAM is picking up on some mesoscale/microscale effects that induce a bit more cooling that the other models have missed. Sitting in College Park, I hope that is the case, though the westward progression of other models has me worried. Either way, I'll be carefully monitoring temperatures throughout the day. A difference in 1-2 degrees in the immediate antecedent airmass (i.e. within a few hours of sunset) could make a real impact on accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TERPhD Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Latest out of LWX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 per HM Experimental 3km-NAM maps for select variables are available beginning with tonight's 0z run! http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/analysis/loop.php?model=nam3 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast. Just saw a scene from Chicago....light snow at 4:30am and the streets are just wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6z has more rain showing now at least by hour 30 but it is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This mornings 12K NAM is ugly. Just a casual glance tells me that it would probably be a sleetfest from the cities and fairly well north and west. The snowfall maps that it throws out, just throw them away because a good deal of the snow they are showing is nothing more then sleet. You could probably cut the totals through the cities, and 25-35 miles north and west, in half if not 3/4 and then you might have a somewhat accurate idea of what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS holding steady. Looks like some mixing/changeover briefly along I-95, but fairly cold and wet N and W. Basically a solid hit from DC to Baltimore, scaling up even better as you move toward the favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS is basically a willing to go down with the ship if its wrong, because it's been as steady as they come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Wow both WRF mesoscale models look awesome for the blue ridge from KROA up the corridor. Much colder and has a lot of moisture as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS has more up this way... Looks closer to the Euro and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS has more up this way... Looks closer to the Euro and RGEM. Very wet up this way. Over 1.5 qpf. through 18z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'd be careful with those snow maps. I don't know for sure, but I think a lot of the "accumulation" in the 95 corridor is something other than accumulating snow. Also, some of that is after sunrise tomorrow after the change back to snow, and it will be tough to accumulate this time of the year during the day with the advertised rates as the storm moves northeast. Snow accumulated in Charlotte, NC the other day and it was daytime and the rates were low. I know what you mean about the snow maps, most of us know. It's just shown for comparison against the previous run. Either way the 6z 3km was showing more frozen than the 0z 3km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 At this point I'm rooting for a sleet bomb here like what the nam is showing...avoiding rain is my bar now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Welp. Last night it's evident this thing trended away from us in the immediate metro. No point in ignoring reality anymore. Probably gonna end up with an inch or two of slop and a lotta rain IMBY. Hopefully the folks up north do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: At this point I'm rooting for a sleet bomb here like what the nam is showing...avoiding rain is my bar now If the NAMs (4K was ugly as well) were to verify I think there would be many in this forum who would be disappointed, to put it mildly. But I think the NAM is out to lunch even though it is within 24 hours. Not going to bother looking into why because I don't care. I'll just throw out the standard convective feedback issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Well if anybody wants a boost to keep them off the ledge - the 0z parallel GFS is pretty intense with snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS looks obviously great, Euro turned out not to be so bad for my area either. I really feel for where that sleet line forms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The one thing that's encouraging about this storm is that it comes after a period of cold air, rather than the summer temps we saw in the march 13 disaster. Just from memory it seems like we tend to do a lot better holding onto cold than vice versa. I wonder if model tendency to scour out cold temps too quickly in CAD events might be relevant here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS took a bit of a step back for DC-Balt looking at 3 hour panels...Still a shellacking for Western burbs ttho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: GFS took a bit of a step back for DC-Balt looking at 3 hour panels...Still a shellacking for Western burbs ttho A step back relative to what? Looks better to my eye than 0Z. Certainly no worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looking at the 500's, the 06Z is almost spot on with the 00Z with only some very slight differences which are mostly likely nothing more then noise. About the only thing of note is that the low pressure in the gulf is coming in a little stronger and the low pressure in the southeast a little weaker so we see a little more dig from our shortwave. The impacts of this are a slightly slower solution initially, a track off the coast that is very slightly inside of the 00Z and a touch stronger coastal low. Surface depiction reflects these differences with a shifting of the precip field west slightly and better qpf totals . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: A step back relative to what? Looks better to my eye than 0Z. Certainly no worse. You're in Towson so you look to be OK on both..but there is a bit more mixing for DC-southern Balt...Im not saying its as bad as some other guidance, but there is more mixing on this run at least for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just curious, what is the blend of models they think have a best handle on the storm? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, EB89 said: Just curious, what is the blend of models they think have a best handle on the storm? TIA Tough to go wrong with a GFS-Euro blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, EB89 said: Just curious, what is the blend of models they think have a best handle on the storm? TIA WPC went with a GFS/ECMWF blend last cycle. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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