mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Is it me, or does it look like we get d*cked by the Gem off the coast.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017031300&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Is it me, or does it look like we get d*cked by the Gem off the coast.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017031300&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0 Go to hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is all snow but some will be lost at onset before the surface cools. Bob look at Moco at hour 36. Where is the mixing coming from? Sfc and 850s look to be fine. Some sort of sneaky warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You can clearly see there's less of a negative tilt, hence the 850 jet is more S-N oriented as opposed to e-w oriented. It's harder for us to get wraparound with that trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, east but warmer lol. Can't make this stuff up. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's because of the interaction with the NS low. In the 00z run, the NS low doesn't transfer to the coastal as quickly. This leads to a weaker coastal with a more eastern track, and the stronger NS low does more damage to the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Both RGEM and GFS have eastern Gulf of Mexico low appearing just before phasing, could be a sign that models have not quite gone all the way to the right solution yet which might be a more intense solution -- and that would keep the thermal ribbon very tight. With luck it would be tight from 25s DCA to 25se BWI. There's a big glob of energy waiting to be drawn into the eventual storm in the central Gulf. Oil rig reports suggest a slowly developing center near 27N 91W, that's probably the "real" storm rather than anything east of Florida to SC at present, however, all that comes along for the ride too. I would speculate that this may end up trying to duplicate the 1993 storm at the last minute and center could be as deep as 965 mbs. Whaaaa? Touche'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 UKIE is a 990 right in the bay.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Both RGEM and GFS have eastern Gulf of Mexico low appearing just before phasing, could be a sign that models have not quite gone all the way to the right solution yet which might be a more intense solution -- and that would keep the thermal ribbon very tight. With luck it would be tight from 25s DCA to 25se BWI. There's a big glob of energy waiting to be drawn into the eventual storm in the central Gulf. Oil rig reports suggest a slowly developing center near 27N 91W, that's probably the "real" storm rather than anything east of Florida to SC at present, however, all that comes along for the ride too. I would speculate that this may end up trying to duplicate the 1993 storm at the last minute and center could be as deep as 965 mbs. Would it deepen early enough for the D.C. Area to get some of the good snow if this scenario were to play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 German model. It looks like it could be flirting with an ice storm for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snowman. said: UKIE is a 990 right in the bay.. Looks like the low is right off Delmarva, or maybe hugging the coast. Not too different from the GFS track as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm in the dreaded east of 95 area but on both the GFS and CMC I do okay. The 5" line is safely still to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: Looks like the low is right off Delmarva. UKIE has been pretty steadfast in showing the same solution for multiple runs now. Guess it cannot be discounted either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Looks like the low is right off Delmarva, or maybe hugging the coast. Not too different from the GFS track as far as I know. Yeah very close to the GFS maybe a tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 And from the delmarva the ukie goes right into RI @ 975mb. Definitely the furthest left track we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I guess if you want to look at the bright side of the ukie...we would most likely get some wraparound with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I guess if you want to look at the bright side of the ukie...we would most likely get some wraparound with that track. Sure do http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Comparing Ukie precip rate maps with the GGEM and ICON, it looks like the Ukie drops a lot of qpf. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=2&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=036&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I could envision the ukie going like this...waa snows until we lose the midlevels...then a driving sleet storm before the wind and rain unleash...maybe some thunder and lightning...then winds howl out of the north and cold rain turns to heavy snow before it shuts off but the wind keeps howling into tues night with flurries/squalls...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 DC meteogram for the Ukie. 850 is above freezing and the surface is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Full UKIE track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowman. said: Full UKIE track That doesn't look so bad to me. At least I don't imagine it to be a driving rainstorm track from I-95 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think the Ukie would be an I95 rain storm. When the heaviest precip is coming down we've lost the 850s, and here's the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: I think the Ukie would be an I95 rain storm. How is it a rainstorm with a similar track (at our latitude) and similar pressures to the GFS, while the GFS is a snowstorm? Maybe there are other factors, though the UKIE doesn't give a whole lot of info... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: I think the Ukie would be an I95 rain storm. I do too. Some snow at first with some sleet but during the meat of the storm 850s are well west of 95 until you get to nmd and surface freezing is out in FDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: How is it a rainstorm with a similar track (at our latitude) and similar pressures to the GFS, while the GFS is a snowstorm? Maybe there are other factors, though the UKIE doesn't give a whole lot of info... I edited my post above and added a 2m temp map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, cae said: I edited my post above and added a 2m temp map. Thanks... it's a disastrous run then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I do too. Some snow at first with some sleet but during the meat of the storm 850s are well west of 95 until you get to nmd and surface freezing is out in FDK. Now THAT would be a complete fail. What does that equate to? 2 or 3 inches? I'd almost count that as a Lucy, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 0z Euro @24 1007mb low just south of FL Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro is west and warm. Freezing line looks to be well west of the district Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 976 off the E tip of LI at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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