snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: GFS Kuchera isn't nearly as good. Also looks to me like the snow really doesn't explode until it gets to Philly and Jersey, and the heaviest period of snow doesn't last very long. It does look like we get some flurries or very light snow for quite a long period after it rolls by to keep it wintry. ? its almost exactly the same to 18z with precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Sw of DC the qpf is much lower as the coastal bombs too late. I think you will see this continue to trend southwest... is it ever going to make it past CHO for decent snows... probably not, but this really is starting to look like a DC-BOS special to me. Very classic Miller B but 200 miles south of where they usually end up.Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: ? its almost exactly the same to 18z with precipitation? In DC/MD it bumped everyone up a couple tenths. Nova lost a tenth. SW VA was the notable drop. The closer track bumped up everyone to our NE for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Tropical Tidbits 18z snowfall map gave me 11 and the 0z run gives me 13". Seem to be headed back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, supernovasky said: All snow no mixing. I'll trust the GFS over the NAM in this setup anyday, esp with agreement from Euro. As much as I'd like to hug the GFS, I think someone posted earlier in this thread about what happend in the SE states earlier this year. Places near the rain/snow boundary got a lot less snow than the GFS and Euro were showing. The mesoscale models, especially the NAM (if I remember correctly), were more accurate. A lot of posters down there came away with a distrust of the globals in these situations. It won't necessarily play out the same way for us, but it's hard to dismiss the mesoscale models when mixing is a concern. Here are the last 3 runs of the GFS with Kuchera ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said: I think you will see this continue to trend southwest... is it ever going to make it past CHO for decent snows... probably not, but this really is starting to look like a DC-BOS special to me. Very classic Miller B but 200 miles south of where they usually end up. Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk I see the opposite. Yes, Miller B, and because of that the fear of losing the greatest precip to the north once the coastal consolidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Tropical Tidbits 18z snowfall map gave me 11 and the 0z run gives me 13". Seem to be headed back in the right direction. I'm certainly not complaining with 0z. Stay all snow for the BWI region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: I'm certainly not complaining with 0z. Stay all snow for the BWI region? Looks like it. You'll do better than me for sure on this one. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I see the opposite. Yes, Miller B, and because of that the fear of losing the greatest precip to the north once the coastal consolidates. Except the h5 continues to trend southwest. This is where ignoring the snow maps and paying attention to the synoptics will help you greatly. The trend has been towards more consolidation further south and west... it's just not all the way there yet. Based on the current rate of trend, I think DC and maybe NOVA is the absolute furthest SW the jackpot totals can get. CVA and especially SW VA will be on the outside looking in sadly.Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Looks like it. You'll do better than me for sure on this one. Enjoy! Thanks, but I'm far from wanting to do better than you or anyone. I'm excited if everyone in this forum gets crushed. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GGEM at 36 looks like rain for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The surface low is actually a tick east of 12z on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Glad the GFS stood firm on not turning this thing into almost an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GGEM is a strung out mess, hence the weak CCB. So we are 2 vs 2... GFS/RGEM more consolidated. NAM/GGEM more progressive/strung out. Will have to see what the Euro and others say in the morning. Bed time for meSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The GGEM doesn't look strung out to me. It looks like a QPF mauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CMC looks like snow to sleet to snow. 850's never cross 95 but close enough. Surface is cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: GGEM at 36 looks like rain for the cities. So close, you'll need soundings. The 4k TT surface map had bwi and me as rain 9z Tuesday, but the soundings were snow at bwi and I'm 2 miles north and in a slightly better spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The GGEM doesn't look strung out to me. It looks like a QPF mauling. That vort is a mess compared to the GFSSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Globals seem to be holding fine. For MBY at least, the only bad look is the old NAM with the silly dry area overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I didn't think it was an awful run. SLP ticks east (thought that looks like noise) and we don't get torched. Wish it weren't warmer, but hell, this could have been a lot worse given the "trend" today. SLP is actually east of 12z but still a warmer solution. My yard probably survives with mostly snow and a mini sandstorm. Walking the line is never easy.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The GGEM is less amped this run, which I think should bring qpf more in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: With all that damn cold air to our north, dca and bwi have to be right on the freezing line.....what a sack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Both RGEM and GFS have eastern Gulf of Mexico low appearing just before phasing, could be a sign that models have not quite gone all the way to the right solution yet which might be a more intense solution -- and that would keep the thermal ribbon very tight. With luck it would be tight from 25s DCA to 25se BWI. There's a big glob of energy waiting to be drawn into the eventual storm in the central Gulf. Oil rig reports suggest a slowly developing center near 27N 91W, that's probably the "real" storm rather than anything east of Florida to SC at present, however, all that comes along for the ride too. I would speculate that this may end up trying to duplicate the 1993 storm at the last minute and center could be as deep as 965 mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GGEM a 6-10 event south of the MD line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Zoomed CMC qpf. There is definitely mixing east of the fall line. I'll dig deeper and see if I find anything interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: Both RGEM and GFS have eastern Gulf of Mexico low appearing just before phasing, could be a sign that models have not quite gone all the way to the right solution yet which might be a more intense solution -- and that would keep the thermal ribbon very tight. With luck it would be tight from 25s DCA to 25se BWI. There's a big glob of energy waiting to be drawn into the eventual storm in the central Gulf. Oil rig reports suggest a slowly developing center near 27N 91W, that's probably the "real" storm rather than anything east of Florida to SC at present, however, all that comes along for the ride too. I would speculate that this may end up trying to duplicate the 1993 storm at the last minute and center could be as deep as 965 mbs. 93'? Oh Roger, now you've done it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is all snow but some will be lost at onset before the surface cools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Add the DWD-ICON to the list of consolidated solutions. Thermals look good too. DC proper hits 1-2C at 850 during the pivot. Fine rest of the time. Sfc 32/33Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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