TL97 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 850 0 degree line passes DC at 36 but then goes back southeastward by 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Probably 50 miles or so to the west with the track so walking the line of course but helps bump qpf along the corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Okay I guess that was a 12mb pressure drop from 30-36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 33 skew is snow, but it's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 At 30, the low is positioned just a tick sw of its position on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 DC crushed at 36h. Zero mixing, even the 95 crowd is happy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 we manage to hang on to snow, but it definitely is warmer vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I would think with a 990 just off the southern Delmarva we would mix regardless of the model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 SLP at 36 is nearly identical to the NAM, GFS just far colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: DC crushed at 36h. Zero mixing, even the 95 crowd is happy here. Still worried. The GFS has trended each time to slow down and dig the SW further to the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: we manage to hang on to snow, but it definitely is warmer vs 18z. It's a concerning trend, but the short lead time might be just enough to save the District imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS kind of trended towards NAM and RGEM, but still impressive and keeps snow hopes alive (at least for a big all snow/minor mixing storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We have no more wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Something to take into account. It's not like the NAM and RGEM have like all of a sudden trended warmer. They've been this way since they came into range. Interesting to see the GFS trending ever so slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I've said this a few times now, but just looking at the water vapor loop, I think you will continue to see adjustments south and west with each run. It just looks like it is digging way south and west to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Seems more in line with the euro. I can't really find a good trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Warmer than 18z, but h36 is a fat flake crush job. Surface is iffy, but 850s below. DC skew for 36 and 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 If the GFS was to verify it would be a truly historic March storm all the way up the coast. As depicted it is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 All snow no mixing. I'll trust the GFS over the NAM in this setup anyday, esp with agreement from Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Warmer than 18z, but h36 is a fat flake crush job. Surface is iffy, but 850s below. DC skew for 36 and 39. If you get a chance, could you run bwi for same periods? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS fully coming in to line with my expectations. We got drier last few runs because we lost the inverted trough and now are dealing with a classic coastal. Things are starting to get wetter and move southwest. This is a much much better look. Expect it to trend wetter right up until game time. I also don't expect SLP or thermals to come much further west and might even trend colder, due to the natural tendency for cyclogenesis to occur along the baroclinic zone. Sub 986 at OC would not shock me when all is said and done. Seeing the CMC and GGEM continue to follow the GFS will make me feel even betterSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: Warmer than 18z, but h36 is a fat flake crush job. Surface is iffy, but 850s below. DC skew for 36 and 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 925's never get close to DC so any flip would be sleet most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If you get a chance, could you run bwi for same periods? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Almost inline with the 12z Euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: All snow no mixing. I'll trust the GFS over the NAM in this setup anyday, esp with agreement from Euro. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017031300&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS Kuchera isn't nearly as good. Also looks to me like the snow really doesn't explode until it gets to Philly and Jersey, and the heaviest period of snow doesn't last very long. It does look like we get some flurries or very light snow for quite a long period after it rolls by to keep it wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Thanks much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said: GFS fully coming in to line with my expectations. We got drier last few runs because we lost the inverted trough and now are dealing with a classic coastal. Things are starting to get wetter and move southwest. This is a much much better look. Expect it to trend wetter right up until game time. I also don't expect SLP or thermals to come much further west and might even trend colder, due to the natural tendency for cyclogenesis to occur along the baroclinic zone. Sub 986 at OC would not shock me when all is said and done. Seeing the CMC and GGEM continue to follow the GFS will make me feel even better Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Sw of DC the qpf is much lower as the coastal bombs too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: GFS Kuchera isn't nearly as good. Also looks to me like the snow really doesn't explode until it gets to Philly and Jersey, and the heaviest period of snow doesn't last very long. It does look like we get some flurries or very light snow for quite a long period after it rolls by to keep it wintry. Kuchera gives SE DC 8 instead of 10. Still not bad. It actually gives me a bit more in Moco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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