nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 DC loses 850s on the RGEM ~6z and ~0.4" of precip has fallen by then. 850s rise to +3 by 9z and the 0c line is back towards Leesburg. By 12z, 850s are still +2. 850s are 0 by 15z and another 0.1-0.2 fall after that. We don't lose 925 though (which we did during the 18z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is the worst of the bunch in regards to 850s... still west of the area 15z tuesday. Again, a couple inches of snow to heavy sleet/rain depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Interestingly, the rgem is pretty cold at the surface. Upper 20's mostly 95 and west. Would be a few inches of snow then a driving sandstorm, and flip back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 850s at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 How reliable are the RGEM thermals in past events? Never really compared them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly, the rgem is pretty cold at the surface. Upper 20's mostly 95 and west. Would a few inches of snow then a driving sandstorm, and flip back to snow. Wow...this is deteriorating right before our very eyes! What a difference 24 hours makes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly, the rgem is pretty cold at the surface. Upper 20's mostly 95 and west. Would be a few inches of snow then a driving sandstorm, and flip back to snow. Weird. I mean, I guess if we're gonna sleet down here, better do it up. 2" of sleet would be pretty epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly, the rgem is pretty cold at the surface. Upper 20's mostly 95 and west. Would a few inches of snow then a driving sandstorm, and flip back to snow. And you'll never convince me that a model can predict an 850 line down to 25 miles accurately. DC is very close even during the bad times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wow...this is deteriorating right before our very eyes! What a difference 24 hours makes... We can't say for sure it's deteriorating. I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless. But for how long is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Been awhile since we've had a good sleet fest. That 12z panel on the rgem would be loud outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: We can't say for sure it's deteriorating. I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless. But for how long is the question. The issues with the rgem are purely track driven. It could be right. But if it's an offshore track then the entire scenario changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Wasn't as bad as I thought up here. All the I95 cities from Washington to Boston mix, but I don't see much plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What I don't get is that the RGEM is inland/west and has bad thermals. NAM (can't keep track of which NAM) had the SLP is a much more favorable location but thermals still suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The issues with the rgem are purely track driven. It could be right. But if it's an offshore track then the entire scenario changes. Seems weird for surface to still be below freezing with those 850s, track and wind direction tho....Whatevs, Whicha got GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is near perfect, just 50 miles too far inland. But the dynamics are stunningSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The RGEM also has Baltimore down to 13 degrees tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We can't say for sure it's deteriorating. I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless. But for how long is the question. It's a big storm. It's quite possible the meso's are too amplified. We've seen that before. Since they are still initializing before the southern storm even gets going, it's possible they are overdoing it. Of course they could be right to. Walking the line sucks but it's what we do around here. It's built into our climo. If the globals hold with an offshore track then we have a lot to discuss with no way to know for sure one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM still manages a decent front-end thump before the changeover. Here are the last three runs. It also has about 0.7" of freezing rain for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: The RGEM also has Baltimore down to 13 degrees tonight Only 16 degrees to go!! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS is more amped up through 18hrs, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a big storm. It's quite possible the meso's are too amplified. We've seen that before. Since they are still initializing before the southern storm even gets going, it's possible they are overdoing it. Of course they could be right to. Walking the line sucks but it's what we do around here. It's built into our climo. If the globals hold with an offshore track then we have a lot to discuss with no way to know for sure one way or the other. If the GFS holds, then we'll be just as blind to what's gonna happen as anybody else who doesn't follow the models like we do, lol Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS at 21 continuing the theme of digging that northern stream energy more southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I see the gfs slowing and deepening the midwest short wave compared to prior runs. What the difference will be we'll know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS looks like the NAM on the H5 at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Developing center right over MYR at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS bumped up start time and qpf through 6z but a little warmer in the mids. SLP hanging back more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The GFS and NAM look almost the exact same on the H5 map @ 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Offshore track so that is a distinct difference from the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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