WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM's are a monster storm out this way. All of them. Close to 2 inches QPF all snow. Crazy. How can you trust one model with about 4 different versions that spits out 4 different solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: This is if every frozen p-type is snow. Radar below. If you are going to troll at least post the right map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Even though I probably rain at some point I love the look of the 12k para NAM... we get deformed in the morning and get another .6" of precipitation which is 5-10" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks like the 4km and 3km NAM's are around 6" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm seeing some healthy snowfall maps being posted from the 12 km NAM para, but there are two critical points: 1) They include sleet, and the ptype maps show a lot of sleet 2) If the model has 1" of liquid with 50% raindrops and 50% mangled flakes, which would never accumulate in the real world, the algorithms (with a 10:1 ratio) give 5" of snow Both factors are making those totals look WAY better than they are.... But as has been noted, the synoptic evolution of this run still looks a bit wonky..... edit: I think that some of the same is happening with the 3km NAM snow maps, more due to factor #1 above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: How can you trust one model with about 4 different versions that spits out 4 different solutions? I dont necessarily trust them. Just stating what they show. And they are all relatively similar for out here. We dont have the mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: This is what I'm hoping and I'm not sure why I'm letting it spook me..if this was outside of 36, I'd lol at it and not even discuss it...but supposedly we're in it's "wheelhouse" High risk added a little comfort is saying the para seems to be better The para 12k looks much more like the ops and a realistic outcome with ptype fields and such. Seems like a much more in line solution across all other guidance. The old nam is completely alone with its depiction. It's not unreasonable to toss the outlier and go with consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I know it's the NAM, but I'm starting to get a bad feeling with todays trends. Between dryslot and ptype issues there's not a lot of room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ian running the "live" blog over at CWG as you read this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The para 12k looks much more like the ops and a realistic outcome with ptype fields and such. Seems like a much more in line solution across all other guidance. The old nam is completely alone with its depiction. It's not unreasonable to toss the outlier and go with consensus. Someone with wxbell should compare the 3k and 12k paras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The NAM, and not just the old one, is spitting out 3-4" of snow in places where the NWS is forecasting none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 If you told me on one hand you have the NAM (but only op, not parallel) and on the other you have the 7th consistent GFS run in a row + the Euro, and also mentioned an extremely complicated setup, which would you take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The other thing that gets me about the NAM, including the para is the lack of a well defined CCB even once up in New England. Most of the heavy precip is on the north WAA side of the storm. This seems suspect and no other model has this evolutionSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Someone with wxbell should compare the 3k and 12k paras Still waiting on 3k to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The NAM has become an annoying model because there are 4332908098 different versions and they all seem to have different final outcomes. However, to completely dismiss it at this point would be silly. We are 24 hours out from the start of the storm. It's coming into its range, if it has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matzacski Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Does anyone have an explanation as to why the low on the NAM keeps bouncing east and west? Is that normal or just the NAM being the NAM? See below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, matzacski said: Does anyone have an explanation as to why the low on the NAM keeps bouncing east and west? Is that normal or just the NAM being the NAM? See below: Valid point to me. Wonky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Valid point to me. Wonky!looks like convective feedback to me. one of the problems with hi-res stuff.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 For awhile now it seems each of the three NAMs are all slightly east of the other with their maxes and colder temps w every suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4k is showing a double barrel structure and model output sticks the L at the lowest pressure. If you take out the L and just follow the isobars it's a pretty normal look of a rapidly deepening low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, matzacski said: Does anyone have an explanation as to why the low on the NAM keeps bouncing east and west? Is that normal or just the NAM being the NAM? See below: That's what I was asking about convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Earlier this winter, and I can't remember which event, the Nam and clan were spitting out varios snowfall amounts in the very shory term (as in less than 12 hours) and we saw nothing. It's always comforting as a weenie to have every model in your corner, but you just can't count on it ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah it looks like the low is just off the Outer Banks and then jumps straight north or possibly even slightly NNW, and then starts jumping east and west. That could explain the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3K Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: Yeah it looks like the low is just off the Outer Banks and then jumps straight north or possibly even slightly NNW, and then starts jumping east and west. That could explain the warm air. no... the warm air is a result of easterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4k is 1.25-1.5 for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Yeah it looks like the low is just off the Outer Banks and then jumps straight north or possibly even slightly NNW, and then starts jumping east and west. That could explain the warm air. No, what it's showing is very normal during a rapidly deepening low pressure. The center isn't some pretty little circle. The core is very dynamic and there will most certainly be convection firing all around the center. The lowest pressure will jump around inside the core because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, EB89 said: 3K Para looks amazing, but there is a LOT of sleet in those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 3K NAM is not 6" for DC... its a couple inches of snow followed by hours and hours of pouring sleet followed by another inch. Meh. OPM would still be closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: looks amazing, but there is a LOT of sleet in those totals. Is much of it rain like ttb shows with its somewhat questionable algorithm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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