stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 12k is not that much better for us cityfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: There's a 12k and parallel 12k. And a 4K and a parallel 4K (aka 3k). I think. I believe the parallel 12k looks really nice... I saw a quick image of it at hr 36 somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The PARA is at least more realistic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: There's a 12k and parallel 12k. And a 4K and a parallel 4K (aka 3k). I think. you nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: you nailed it. Any verification discrepancies between the two paras? One would expect the 3km higher resolution to be better regardless, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's a little late, but here's the 18z high-res RGEM. This is qpf falling as snow. It's drier than the regular RGEM and GGEM, and it also has more ZR along I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM QPF Top, Para NAM QPF bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Para 12k is 10" for DCA off WxBell ratios. The cutoff is scary close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 If the 3k is the para...then yeah, that one is better so far..i'm only out to 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ok, so I am not as used to following winterwx as I am tropical, but since when has the NAM been given more weight than the Euro + an ultra consistent GFS (which is hard enough to get by itself!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: NAM QPF Top, Para NAM QPF bottom Only a "small" difference I'll take the PARA and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 PARA NAM is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: NAM QPF Top, Para NAM QPF bottom Thanks...just a slight difference in precip orientation. At least the para doesn't give us the dry slot screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: NAM QPF Top, Para NAM QPF bottom Wow, talk about completely different. Almost 2 inches of qpf into Baltimore compared to an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 4k PARA/Regular are out to like 25 hours...I have to run out but maybe someone can post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Snowman. said: PARA NAM is a big hit Add maybe an inch from ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: It doesn't. Inside 24 is when I start to trust the NAM more, but even then... The setup is ultra complex, and I personally trust globals in agreement to handle that better than cherry picking one of 7 NAMs, even if the solution were good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Add maybe an inch from ULL Yeah, I like this one way better lol. Hopefully the para outperforms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Any verification discrepancies between the two paras? One would expect the 3km higher resolution to be better regardless, right? depends. it's going to put more mesoscale features in the precip field, which won't always be correct. But I overall trust its synoptics more than the 12 km versions of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Add maybe an inch from ULL This is if every frozen p-type is snow. Radar below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Para nam zoomed QPF. Looking pretty nice with that kinda of distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: This is if every frozen p-type is snow. Radar below. We all know this by now. Wxbell is ultra bullish with snowfall. We get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 OK so the NAM sucks because there is a complete lack of consolidation of the h5 vort even though there is more phasing. It's a much flatter, more progressive look. Unless other models support this, I think it's pretty safe to say it's wrong Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm sorry, and I never do this, but that solution put out by the regular NAM seems to be ridiculous. It is so out of sync with every other piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: This is if every frozen p-type is snow. Radar below. I think the 3km NAM is different from the para 12km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3k NAM out to 35. Much better precip (similar to parallel 12k). DC and points to the west into FFX county (and north from there) flip to sleet around 6z for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The NAM's are a monster storm out this way. All of them. Close to 2 inches QPF all snow. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm sorry, and I never do this, but that solution put out by the regular NAM seems to be ridiculous. It is so out of sync with every other piece of guidance. It goes nuts on the western flank so we're stuck in subsidence between the southern energy and northern energy. Total outlier right now and may be a case of what I talked about earlier. Get something wrong early and then magnify the error through time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm sorry, and I never do this, but that solution put out by the regular NAM seems to be ridiculous. It is so out of sync with every other piece of guidance. Why are you so bitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm sorry, and I never do this, but that solution put out by the regular NAM seems to be ridiculous. It is so out of sync with every other piece of guidance. This is what I'm hoping and I'm not sure why I'm letting it spook me..if this was outside of 36, I'd lol at it and not even discuss it...but supposedly we're in it's "wheelhouse" High risk added a little comfort is saying the para seems to be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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