snowfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: LWX has done a good job at splitting counties for WW watches and warnings...they need to do the same for N-NW PG and AA Counties. I mean, the N-NW portions of those counties stand just as good a chance to get warning criteria given their location relative to the fall line. Yes, thank you! Easy for both counties....rt 50 is the zone divider. You could make the case for a 3rd zone in AA by splitting it N/S by rt 50 and E/W by 97.....the N/S split is needed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Amped said: NWS is smarter. 12-18" causes mass hysteria, 8-12" people will relax yea though i think part of that is just the fact that they aren't forecasting just for our backyard. they can roll the dice a little more without having to get trolled on social media the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Para GFS looks just about like what I am thinking for my area. A foot or maybe a little bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Did OPM close for Tuesday yet? (kidding. Kind of) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS-Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Did OPM close for Tuesday yet? (kidding. Kind of) Wednesday too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The German ICON model is actually better than 12z. About 1.3-1.4" QPF and thermals look a touch better, more importantly. I can only see 850s & surface...850s go above 0 around 6z for a shorter period of time than 12z. Probably because its slightly east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18Z GEFS looks great, for whatever that is worth at this point. I would lock up 12-16 in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 51 minutes ago, baltimoreguy said: Tony Pann from WBAL tweeted the following. I have no idea what it means and think he is a poor forecaster To all the forecasters: noticing a big difference in model snow output from private sources and WSI MAX. The Euro and the GEM specifically. 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Referring to the electronic dumpster fire that is the RPM? I assume he means the difference in the snow algorithm. While snow maps are fun, when we are borderline with temps they are very highly sensitive to assumptions about temperature and precipitation type. Really, we should all be looking at QPF and soundings, but those aren't as easily digestible and not nearly as fun. I do think that we are all going to be disappointed when this comes in drier and at a 7:1 ratio. As far as I know, the RPM is simply another version of the WRF. The thing with the WRF is that it began as the community research model to replace the MM5. On one hand it is great because it is free and anyone can download and tinker with it. On the other hand, that has resulted in a ridiculous parameter space with different physics packages, microphysical parameterizations, etc. The RPM is just somebody's take on what different choices fit together. Thus, it hasn't been vetted like the main models have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Interestingly, the GEFS had the same or more QPF in general than the op. That really isn't that common. Could be noise. Usually smoothing at short ranges show less. Not this time. In my opinion only, I think we are better served with QPF maps being posted and not snow maps. 10:1 seems pretty unlikely and very location dependent based on rates, temps, etc. Some folks could easily jack with QPF and be a good bit lower than the highest verified snow total. I'm going with 8:1 for my yard tops. Everyone can figure out there own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I dont think I saw it... but did someone post the 18z CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie 18z surface low track...hugger still http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=322643 there's an 18z ukmet? why has it never been posted before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: I dont think I saw it... but did someone post the 18z CMC? Think we decided that doesn't exist. The "18z CMC" is the 18z RGEM + the 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: there's an 18z ukmet? why has it never been posted before? After looking at that run, which even keeps the lp onshore new jersey, I wish it still hadn't been posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 There is no 18z UKMET or 18z CMC/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just track and intensity That track would screw all the big cities. Hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 See no reason for less than 10:1 out here. Will be anxiously watching the axis of heavy precip Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Aren't places along I-95 and surrounding kind of dealing with two types of snow potentially? Low ratio concrete on the front end like 7 or 8:1 then maybe 10:1 in a possible deform band Tuesday morning (sleet in the middle)? Does the trailing ULL still look to bring icing on the cake Tuesday night/Wednesday AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If the gfs track and general progression verifies then it will have earned a lot of respect. I haven't seen it this rock steady with a complicated coastal storm basically ever. The euro has been jumpy right up till game time so far. Of course if 0z nails whatever happens it will be loved and praised as the king. But not by me unless the gfs ends up wrong by a good margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, CARDC79 said: Aren't places along I-95 and surrounding kind of dealing with two types of snow potentially? Low ratio concrete on the front end like 7 or 8:1 then maybe 10:1 in a possible deform band Tuesday morning (sleet in the middle)? Does the trailing ULL still look to bring icing on the cake Tuesday night/Wednesday AM? 1. Potentially 2. Perhaps 3. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The SW should be on shore in the Pac Northwest with 0z Suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the gfs track and general progression verifies then it will have earned a lot of respect. I haven't seen it this rock steady with a complicated coastal storm basically ever. The euro has been jumpy right up till game time so far. Of course if 0z nails whatever happens it will be loved and praised as the king. But not by me unless the gfs ends up wrong by a good margin. yes it has an opportunity to score a coup here... especially with regard to its outputs in Boston NYC... 8-12" vs the Euro's 18-20. Obviously we will remember it but nobody cares about the differences between the GFS and Euro down here, but the differences up farther NE are significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: The SW should be on shore in the Pac Northwest with 0z Suite. Isn't that it right now in the upper Midwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: See no reason for less than 10:1 out here. Will be anxiously watching the axis of heavy precip Monday night. Yeah, We will do at least that well. Almost every model run has been colder for us and our DP's are crazy cold. We should do very well on ratios IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the gfs track and general progression verifies then it will have earned a lot of respect. I haven't seen it this rock steady with a complicated coastal storm basically ever. The euro has been jumpy right up till game time so far. Of course if 0z nails whatever happens it will be loved and praised as the king. But not by me unless the gfs ends up wrong by a good margin. It's been saying basically the same thing since last Thursday with only minor variation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: Aren't places along I-95 and surrounding kind of dealing with two types of snow potentially? Low ratio concrete on the front end like 7 or 8:1 then maybe 10:1 in a possible deform band Tuesday morning (sleet in the middle)? Does the trailing ULL still look to bring icing on the cake Tuesday night/Wednesday AM? It's should be fairly classic in progression even though it's a complicated storm. Warm air advection snows should come in like a wall. It should be the typical dense type of snow on the frontside of most storms. There should also be the classic pivot during the height. That usually brings all kinds of different ratios including sleet or rain for some. This is when the banding should bring intense snowfall to the lucky folks. If there's going to be any thunder, this is when it happens. After the pivot is typically the high ratio fluffy dendrites. This time however, it won't be very fluffy by a few hours after sunrise in the lower elevation spots near the cities. Backside snow underperforms more often than not too. There will be bands but they weaken in place as the low moves further and further NE. The ull won't cover a lot of real estate. It will prolong the appeal though. I haven't seen any guidance show more than .3 in isolated spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: The SW should be on shore in the Pac Northwest with 0z Suite. No the sw is currently snowing in Minnesota and Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, WxMan1 said: LWX has done a good job at splitting counties for WW watches and warnings...they need to do the same for N-NW PG and AA Counties. I mean, the N-NW portions of those counties stand just as good a chance to get warning criteria given their location relative to the fall line. What's up with the blank gap for Fredericksburg? Are we going to be in some bizarre sweet spot that doesn't get anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Isn't that it right now in the upper Midwest? It came onshore last night. You can see it cruising through Wyoming and Nebraska right now. And it looks like it's really digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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