yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS is marvelous. Doesn't get any better for this system. Classic track and remains consistent with its previous run. 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Great run. Even with the snow hole over my backyard. La la lock it up! Good to see both of you liking this run like me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS looks pretty good at a quick glance. Yeah, it looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: What kind of ratios can we expect from that band? Better than 10:1? That would certainly be the best chance of some 12-15:1 fluff. But it happens during midday in march, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'm just worried it's not correct because it's precip distribution is way off from all the other models for the rest of the northeast...but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It's not over by then. Whole system has slowed down by about six hours from yesterday's progs. IWM maps have 15-18" in C MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS making the DMV snows great again (well considering this winter). Seriously it's been so consistent for days. Hard to not weight it somewhat heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Little more to come after this. Certainly a step down, QPF-wise, across the whole region and beyond. It's not much of a step down unless you're thinking it can model precip within 0.1" 48+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 New warnings out for Metro area. 8-12 NW in earlier warning 6-10 - 95 corridor, may mix with sleet. 4-8 for southern Shenandoah Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That would certainly be the best chance of some 12-15:1 fluff. But it happens during midday in march, so... But...snow sticks very well to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: IWM maps have 15-18" in C MD I'd imagine that's way overdone (unless tonight's models say otherwise)....uh, right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 552 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505>507-WVZ051>053- 130600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 552 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. * TIMING...Snow will overspread the area Monday evening and persist through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. * WINDS...Northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wak2x Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 No warning for CHO/Albemarle. Models all over the place with qpf and p-type down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 552 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505>507-WVZ051>053- 130600- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 552 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. * TIMING...Snow will overspread the area Monday evening and persist through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. * WINDS...Northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s. They've lowered temps in that warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS making the DMV snows great again (well considering this winter). Seriously it's been so consistent for days. Hard to not weight it somewhat heavily. I mean really, that's gotta count for something, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 WSW expanded: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=10457570 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Still not sure really what to expect down here in Spotsylvania, near EZF. No Watch or Warning for our county. Feels like it could be 2 inches with A lot of rain or 10 inches with some sleet and rain. My hedge is lower down this way. It's been intriguing to follow this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: WSW expanded: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=10457570 Kinda late good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said: Still not sure really what to expect down here in Spotsylvania, near EZF. No Watch or Warning for our county. Feels like it could be 2 inches with A lot of rain or 10 inches with some sleet and rain. My hedge is lower down this way. It's been intriguing to follow this storm. I feel you. We're one of the few that has nothing, not even advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What do you not see in this map? The west stripe of heavy precipitation like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 From LWX updated at 3:30 PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What do you not see in this map? The west stripe of heavy precipitation like the NAM. For some reason, I'm pretty nervous and not as gung ho as everybody else. I don't like this splitting thing showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So I figured I would gather all of the most recent snow maps for every model... kind of shows how big the differences are... First, the big boys... Then the Canadian Then the NAMs Here are the ranges for some major points: DC... Min 3" in the NAM 12k, Max 11" in the Euro Kuchera MoCo... Min 6" NAM 12k, Max 16" in the Canadian/Euro Baltimore... Min 4" NAM 12k/Nam4k, Max 15" in the Canadian Fredricksburg... Min 3" Euro Kuchera, Max 11" GFS 10:1 Northern PG... Min 3" NAM 12km, Max 11" Euro Kuchera Frederick, MD... Min 11" Nam 12km, Max 16" Euro Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Seems like everywhere can find a really bad run for themselves in the 3-6" range and everyone can find a really good one in the 10-16" range. Tough one to call eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 There is still no consensus. Kinda crazy. There are so many locations (not just here but also up the coast) that are getting massively different outputs on various snowfall maps. Some show close to 2 feet, others show 2 inches, and everything in between. Wild. Thought the GFS and NAM would have been better given how much digging takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: So I figured I would gather all of the most recent snow maps for every model... kind of shows how big the differences are... First, the big boys... Then the Canadian Then the NAMs Here are the ranges for some major points: DC... Min 3" in the NAM 12k, Max 11" in the Euro Kuchera MoCo... Min 6" NAM 12k, Max 16" in the Canadian/Euro Baltimore... Min 4" NAM 12k/Nam4k, Max 15" in the Canadian Fredricksburg... Min 3" Euro Kuchera, Max 11" GFS 10:1 Northern PG... Min 3" NAM 12km, Max 11" Euro Kuchera Frederick, MD... Min 11" Nam 12km, Max 16" Euro Kuchera You're new here so.... You never leave Winchester out of your data. Never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: I do get the sense that this will be a relative now-casting event (in terms of pockets of deeper powder), correct? Oh! And on the powder note: what kind of snow will this likely be? Powder fluffy stuff? White paste? It really depends where you are and the temps where you are which is effected by elevation. We all have micro climates where we live. And most of us know what to expect in a storm like this. The only thing I am really looking at at this point is QPF and storm track. From there I know what will happen based on my climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: For some reason, I'm pretty nervous and not as gung ho as everybody else. I don't like this splitting thing showing up I'm not either. Wonder why the models have been so crazy today? (And yeah, what about this splitting thing? What's causing that?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, supernovasky said: So I figured I would gather all of the most recent snow maps for every model... kind of shows how big the differences are... First, the big boys... Then the Canadian Then the NAMs Here are the ranges for some major points: DC... Min 3" in the NAM 12k, Max 11" in the Euro Kuchera MoCo... Min 6" NAM 12k, Max 16" in the Canadian/Euro Baltimore... Min 4" NAM 12k/Nam4k, Max 15" in the Canadian Fredricksburg... Min 3" Euro Kuchera, Max 11" GFS 10:1 Northern PG... Min 3" NAM 12km, Max 11" Euro Kuchera Frederick, MD... Min 11" Nam 12km, Max 16" Euro Kuchera Thanks for taking time to do this. Good analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 There's plenty of consensus. The apparent differences all appear due to mesoscale features like banding from what I can see. Cyclogenesis and storm track are pretty locked in among the globals. And none of the globals are really going to nail the banding. It's a nowcast thing mostly. This is why snow forecasts are always a range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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