BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 For what it's worth, the GOM is "on fire"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM would be snow to sleet/freezing rain to snow. Better than 12z for sure. About 1.3" of QPF and DC/just west gets a nice deform in the morning as we switch back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: The Canadian website has some of the heavy stuff in the RGEM falling as FRZA. Can anyone check if there is a warm layer? Seems strange. We lose 925 and 850 during the overnight hours but surface stays at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 More snow maps just for fun. 12z TerpWRF (4km nest): 18z TerpWRF-HD (driven by TerpWRF), 1km MD Domain...ignore near the boundaries and only focus on inner parts of domain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ji said: how can one model shows 32 inches IN NE PA(Euro) and another 7(GFS=Para) one day before the storm See, this what what I don't get. How the heck do we have MORE model desparity this close to the event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: We lose 925 and 850 during the overnight hours but surface stays at or below freezing. Meh. Rates would overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 850s are toasty on the RGEM, but surface is nice and 1.3" of precip for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 if anyone wants something to lift their spirits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: RGEM would be snow to sleet/freezing rain to snow. Better than 12z for sure. About 1.3" of QPF and DC/just west gets a nice deform in the morning as we switch back to snow. We lose the column after 6z or so. By then ~0.5" has fallen. We'd probably get another 0.1-0.2" QPF at the end as all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Will the GFS swing the pendulum back to the other side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Where are you guys getting the RGEM? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Does it changeover for Fairfax and points slightly west? Yeah, even just west of DC would probably mix but it wont cut into totals as much as 95/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS a little slower/colder/south with vort vs 12. It's a good bit different than the NAM @ hr30 too. What a weird day of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If you compare hr 30 between the nam and GFS, the NAM doesn't have the area of precip off of SC at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, dtk said: More snow maps just for fun. 12z TerpWRF (4km nest): 18z TerpWRF-HD (driven by TerpWRF), 1km MD Domain...ignore near the boundaries and only focus on inner parts of domain: I'm gonna step out on a limb and say that's wrong. I'm not feeling 3" in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS looking good again through 36, no dry slot like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM almost ideal under the circumstances, the low bombs at just the right time and that might make the dicey 3-6h period (in late overnight) less prone to mix, also the position of the 987 mb low at 48h looks slightly west of where much of the guidance would suggest, so if that happened to be off by 100 miles the track from 36h to 48h is then ideal, maybe it would be anyway -- I am somewhat suspicious of the easy access of 0 C 850s between the Missouri low and the coast given that there is almost no warm advection. Anyway dewpoints will control this event and if rates are high enough in the dicey period then perhaps it stays 80-90 per cent snow (for I-95). Still locking in a 15-20 inch event for parts of n MD into e/c PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS holding its course. It's gorgeous. At 42 it is deform destruction for NW VA. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Dryslot DC at 42 but it's not as bad as the NAM....better west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS is showing the dryer area between the band to the west and east. And it's centered over DC. That reminds me of the euro for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18z GFS still looks like ~10" at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS is showing the dryer area between the band to the west and east. And it's centered over DC. That reminds me of the euro for sure. Still has the gorgeous fronto band in the CCB Tuesday morning. Fluffy dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Most of the subforum 1-1.25, DC 0.75-1.00, surface freezing never makes it past DC. Verbatim it's a good run for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS looks pretty good at a quick glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS is marvelous. Doesn't get any better for this system. Classic track and remains consistent with its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Great run. Even with the snow hole over my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Little more to come after this. Certainly a step down, QPF-wise, across the whole region and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Still has the gorgeous fronto band in the CCB Tuesday morning. Fluffy dendrites. What kind of ratios can we expect from that band? Better than 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: Little more to come after this. Certainly a step down, QPF-wise, across the whole region and beyond. It's not over by then. Whole system has slowed down by about six hours from yesterday's progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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